govro12

Nintendo versus $SONY: shcking that the brand new console SW2 (outside of 🇯🇵) gets outsold from a 6year old PS5. The attach rate (2.2) is very low. The most popular 3rd party Cyberpunk for SW2 LY sold only 10% of copies on SW2. Swapping all my 28xPE Nintendo to 16xPE Sony Sunday

@technosucks @MikeFritzell Sony Music is worth as much as PS5 business and is high margin and growing at 14% - go deeper

@govro12 @MikeFritzell LOL, but Sony has other businesses… lower margin segments… it’s not an apples to apples comparison with Nintendo. I honestly think both offer different investment opportunities, but the real takeaway from this data point should be how laughably bad Microsoft/Xbox has performed.

Nintendo versus $SONY: shcking that the brand new console SW2 (outside of 🇯🇵) gets outsold from a 6year old PS5. The attach rate (2.2) is very low. The most popular 3rd party Cyberpunk for SW2 LY sold only 10% of copies on SW2. Swapping all my 28xPE Nintendo to 16xPE Sony Sunday

@_KarateBoy_ @MikeFritzell wintergems.com/p/part2-indust… all the non PS5 business is explained quite extensively...

@govro12 @MikeFritzell Do you have any idea what the non-PlayStation side of Sony does? Do you have a view on image sensors? Music? Pictures?

Cyberpunk 2077 sold around 5m copies in 2025 and some probably the same amount of Phantom.. 10% on SW2... 29% on PS5.. That title has been available on PS5 since 2020..

Add Sony Music > UMG , + 57% Image sensor Semi + arm dealer Sony pictures and you have a firing on all cylinders co.. Read more on wintergems.com/p/part2-indust…

Whether the next president is a Republican or a Democrat, can we have someone with at least a little class next time? Because this is embarrassing.

@rospigge60559 Thanks there is an event Monday need to get the info might be able to attend

@govro12 CEO is visiting Canada this up coming week msn.com/sv-se/ekonomi/…

Interesting timing. Saab AB CEO traveling to Canada as discussions around fighter procurement intensify. Canada already selected the F-35 Lightning II, but debates continue around cost, sovereignty and industrial benefits. Saab JAS 39 Gripen is being offered with local production and full operational control. That would be a very different model from the US ecosystem. Interesting weeks ahead. reuters.com/business/aeros…

@tembelvitesi Dont know how you get to PE of 33 for adyen EPS 38 for 2026 thats 866/38 =22,789 pure organic growth versus acquisition growth from four ! And writtof counts in the PE so PE of 7 is wrong

$FOUR hit a 52-week low of $40.60 yesterday. Short borrow rate just hit a record 12.9%. Let me show you how absurd this is against its peers. VALUATION AT CURRENT PRICES $FOUR (Shift4) — $41 📌 Mkt Cap: $3.3B | EV: $6.9B 📌 EV/EBITDA (FY26E): 5.6x 📌 P/E (FY26E): 7.3x 📌 FCF Yield: 15.2% $TOST (Toast) — $27.50 📌 Mkt Cap: $15.5B | EV: $14.4B 📌 EV/EBITDA (FY26E): 18.3x 📌 P/E (FY26E): 39.3x 📌 FCF Yield: 3.9% $XYZ (Block) — $59.30 📌 Mkt Cap: $35.4B | EV: $38.9B 📌 EV/EBITDA (FY26E): 12.2x 📌 P/E (FY26E): 16.2x 📌 FCF Yield: 4.2% $ADYEN (Adyen) — €863 📌 Mkt Cap: €26.3B ($28.4B) | EV: $20.6B 📌 EV/EBITDA (FY26E): 13.7x 📌 P/E (FY26E): 33.0x 📌 FCF Yield: 4.3% Shift4 at 5.6x. Toast at 18.3x. Block at 12.2x. Adyen at 13.7x. Shift4 is 2-3x cheaper than every single peer. — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — 2026 GUIDANCE — WHO'S GROWING FASTER? Revenue / Gross Profit Growth (Guided Midpoint): 🟢 $FOUR: +28.5% (GRLNF $1.98B → $2.55B) 🟢 $TOST: +21.0% (Non-GAAP GP $1.88B → $2.28B) 🔵 $ADYEN: +21.0% (Net Rev €2.36B → €2.86B) 🟡 $XYZ: +18.0% (Gross Profit $10.4B → $12.2B) Profit / EBITDA Growth: 🟢 $XYZ: +54% (Adj. Op Income → $3,200M) 🟢 $FOUR: +26% (EBITDA $970M → $1,222M) 🟢 $TOST: +24% (EBITDA $633M → $785M) 🔵 $ADYEN: +20% (EBITDA €1,246M → ~€1,500M) Profit Margin: 🥇 $ADYEN: 53% 🥈 $FOUR: 48% 🥉 $TOST: 34% 4️⃣ $XYZ: 26% Shift4 is the fastest-growing on revenue, second most profitable, yet trades at the lowest multiple by far. — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — THE SBC PROBLEM — QUALITY OF EARNINGS Stock-Based Compensation as % of Gross Profit: $XYZ: 22.0% ← Every $5 of "profit" costs $1 in dilution $TOST: 17.9% ← Improving, but still heavy $ADYEN: 8.5% ← Reasonable for EU $FOUR: 5.3% ← Cleanest in the sector Real Owner Earnings (FCF minus SBC): $FOUR: $500M - $85M = $415M real → 12.6% real yield on $3.3B mkt cap $ADYEN: €1.08B - €200M = €884M real → 3.1% real yield $XYZ: $1.5B - $1.8B = NEGATIVE → dilution exceeds cash generation $TOST: $608M - $340M = $268M real → 1.7% real yield on $15.5B mkt cap Shift4 has the cleanest cash generation in payments. By a wide margin. "BUT SHIFT4 HAS LEVERAGE" Yes. 3.7x net leverage. That's the entire bear case. What they ignore: ✅ Leverage declining every quarter → sub-3x by Q4 2026 ✅ 82% fixed-rate debt → no refi risk ✅ No maturities until Aug 2027 ✅ $500M+ annual FCF covers debt service 2x over ✅ Just retired 13% of shares at $45-50 ✅ CFO confirmed 60% incremental FCF on every new EBITDA dollar ✅ Guide bakes in ZERO inflation and NEUTRAL same-store sales ✅ Insider buying millions at $41-48 Toast at 18x with net cash. Shift4 at 5.6x with 3.7x leverage. 5.6X EV/EBITDA is Legacy Dinosour valuation. $WLN is at 4.8x $NEXI is at 5.1x $GPN is at 9.5X $FI is at 16x $VYX is at 8x Even at 10x EV/EBITDA — still a 45% discount to Toast Shift4 = $90/share. That's +120% from here.

#ProjectHailMary poised to obliterate industry’s projections at US #BoxOffice, after AMAZE AMAZE AMAZE 33.1M FRI Opening Day (over #DunePartTwo’s 32.2M, #Interstellar’s 19M, #TheMartian’s 18.1M) incl. 12M total Previews -Beats #Oppenheimer’s 33M as BIGGEST Opening Day EVER for any non-franchise title. -Beats #Creed3’s 22.1M as #AmazonMGM’s BIGGEST Opening Day since inception. -Beats #Scream7’s 29.4M as BIGGEST Opening Day of 2026. -Beats CBM #Logan’s 33M as #8 BIGGEST Opening Day EVER for a MAR Release. Eyeing a 75M-85M 3-day opening weekend, potentially challenging #GodzillaXKongTheNewEmpire’s 80M & #DunePartTwo’s 82.5M 3-day opening weekends as not only one of the biggest for Pure sci-fi but also the #8 BIGGEST EVER for a MAR release in the U.S. what would largely over perform industry’s already optimistic 60M-65M projections.

@ragingbullcap I have not seen anymore insiders selling from Daniel Marks after unloading multimillion shares in February ! So retail weak hands selling imo hoping from a quick buck ! The patient will win in this amazing 2026 cinéma 🍿 lineup

Meanwhile you are selling $dbo.to at $0.67. Brilliant stuff.

@Genki_JPN @WeAreCircana Link please

PlayStation 5 was the best selling console for February in the US for the second month in a row! - #1 in terms of units sold and dollars made. - Nintendo Switch 2 was #2 via @WeAreCircana

@MikeFritzell Gemini makes my sheets chart & manage to get jap quotes working so Life is good lol

For those of you who have moved from Excel to Google Sheets - has it worked alright? Any tips?

@joinyellowbrick @DavidDiranko @komodo_capital @dcurras1 @ContrarianKiwi @bourseko Great ! Correction : 2nd source of Ti blade for Safran + likely P&W

Added 63 new stock write-ups (pt final): @DavidDiranko (Monday Monitor) - $ALFA.L, $ALGIL.PA, $ALFEN.AS, $ALDLT.PA, $ALGEV.PA @komodo_capital (updates) - $DAVE, $ROOT @dcurras1 - $TOI.V @ContrarianKiwi - $TIGR @bourseko - $TTE (overview) @Govro12 - $7409.T (update)

@stonkmetal @KairosPraxis @DutchInvestors the 10.8B is fully available as intrinsic to the current TPV - 36hr free float. Peers like FDS and JPM as used this float to to do M&A. I can see a scenario where an entity via LBO use the 10.8B to finance the deal. Adyen is looking very tempting as a takeover target!

@KairosPraxis @govro12 @DutchInvestors 10 billion cash, 6.6 of which payables.

Adyen management share count development over the years. $ADYEN.AS $ADYEN

$RR for the jet engine and aeroedge for key engine components are working on this 6th gen jet program

@stonkmetal @KairosPraxis @DutchInvestors those of last year numbers.... we are at 10.8B cash and 6.3 payable to merchants... so 4.5B in equities.. keep piling up .. This stock is SUPER cheap and that wont stay like that....

@KairosPraxis @DutchInvestors In a few years they could have 20B with float from TPV an activist could show up - mgt has no control - just dont have the 5% to go activist myself ;)

@govro12 @DutchInvestors Lol they will just sit on the cash for another decade and do nothing 🥲