Capex

@VIKINGMASS @toiletkingcap @SportAllNight @EnergyPeddler That's reasonable.

@GravitySink0 @toiletkingcap @SportAllNight @EnergyPeddler I’ll take the under on 80, but I’d be happy with 72 :)

lol it is absolutely blowing my mind that "the largest energy shock of all time" means nothing to the market. i understand it may not mean catastrophe if fixed quickly, but how in the world are indexes higher? please explain to me like im an absolute moron

@VIKINGMASS @toiletkingcap @SportAllNight @EnergyPeddler I meant a destruction of the degree that'd accompany significant recession. In a manner that is much more impressive than the recent economic stumbling. A transient crash. Equipment restarts/fixing, storage refills, confidence rebuilding, will keep oil over $80 the rest of 2026.

@GravitySink0 @toiletkingcap @SportAllNight @EnergyPeddler Demand destruction has been occurring in other sectors for may months now, due to the weakness of the underlying economy. I think oil is a short from here, & headed back to the 60s where it was pre-Iran

@NickCowles11 @toiletkingcap @creampiecap Absolutely not LMAO

@toiletkingcap @creampiecap then by your logic, the market moving oil from low 50's to 115 wasnt "pricing it in" enough for you?

@VIKINGMASS @toiletkingcap @SportAllNight @EnergyPeddler Demand destruction happens at higher prices. Physical shortages haven't happened yet. But even there there's some headscratchers: some estimate that the stored buffers wont run out until May. I'm lost on where that much crude could be stored. I estimate 4th wk of April.

@toiletkingcap @SportAllNight @EnergyPeddler You guys are underestimating two major things: 1) the massive difference between financial oil markets & physical oil markets. 2) the demand destruction & underlying weakness of the economy. Inflation is less of a concern than people realize because of this issue

@EnergyPeddler @toiletkingcap Clearly, the market didn't "bloat" enough. CENTCOM hints it'll "mow Iran's grass" every other year, so the market will be under pressure to maintain "bloat" for a couple years. The risk premium has been the same. Everyone is waiting for the physical supply shortage in 2-3 wks.

@toiletkingcap Energy inventories were bloated to start the year. We debloated the oil on water. Oil prices around ~$100 are manageable, and the conflict is almost over and flows will resume. That’s what the market is saying.

@ILJorginho @MatologMeatball Every creative human expression is art.

@MatologMeatball No, si todos fueran "arte" ya nada seria arte

coughs

@Paradisenewslin @WarMonitor3 A big enough backlog is indistinguishable from floating storage.

@WarMonitor3 160M barrels on ships sounds big until you realize it’s basically backlog, not magic supply shield

Iran tactfully ramped up oil exports to China before and during the first phase of its war against the US over 160 million barrels are currently seaborne tactically Iran has built a stockpile which may last in to July enabling it to withstand blockade-WSJ

@CrazieCrazie_ @DrNilam64677 @Haardonn @modrnwarfare1 @2dollarperc You don't have to NOT support them. It's art, not a history lesson. You only have to internalize that the narrative has many reasons that'd make another reasonable person have an opposite position. That intensity is where the fun lies and the marker of good art.

@DrNilam64677 @GravitySink0 @Haardonn @modrnwarfare1 @2dollarperc How are we NOT supposed to support the yaegerist when we saw how bad Marley is? Idgaf if it’s ‘genocide’ when said ‘genocide’ is completely and utterly in self defense and retaliation. We meet a single guy in Onyankopon that doesn’t seem to have an innate hate towards eldians.

Really challenging and thought provoking

@DrNilam64677 @Haardonn @modrnwarfare1 @2dollarperc The real-life connections need not be raised at all. Within the context of the fictional conflict, an instance of genocide was either viewed as robustly morally coherent or obviously evil. The narrative has its own view, of course. That intensity is cool. AoT had fun politics.

@GravitySink0 @Haardonn @modrnwarfare1 @2dollarperc Not really. Most of the people I've seen that supported Eren are against genocide irl

@Haardonn @modrnwarfare1 @2dollarperc Mostly agree but not quite. I've heard many right-wing "serious people" argue that the specific circumstances the author made make genocide a reasonable outcome. It partly succeeds in imprinting it's faultlines even outside it's main demographic.

@GravitySink0 @modrnwarfare1 @2dollarperc Yes because most of the fans are teens who aren’t very smart. Naruto fans have been arguing about Danzo the last ~30 years despite the conflict being relatively simple

@modrnwarfare1 @2dollarperc That the main conflict inspired years of feverish ideological bickering among anime fans is cool. I've heard as many people say "OF COURSE genocide is not wrong in this scenario!" as "OF COURSE it is!"

@2dollarperc aot has the most surface level politics on earth it’s so funny seeing people try to convince you it’s super deep and perspective changing

@eigenrobot How's the ww3 warmup going?

tbf rugs are mostly used for money laundering x.com/i/status/20430…

this explains a lot about what's going on, for those of you who are paying attention

@AlexanderPayton @MatthewXWilson_ Thats the religious case. One can easily imagine alternative cases of overindulgence in masturbation. It doesn't have to be pathalogic. Just a moderately inconvenient habit, still something to optimize yet. But looking for a "dangerous" pattern, that'll just fly under the rader.

What they can’t stop doing isn’t pornography, but masturbation, most likely. In the phone and internet era, going days on end without that or sex is going to put a healthy man with a normal endocrine system into an altered mental state. He’ll look at women and depictions of women with greater prurient interest than normal, and he’ll be more likely to go down that rabbit hole than someone who jerks off or has sex once a day. He’ll find it significantly easier to avoid if he just did that, without any visual aids. But if he’s a religious conservative, there are usually limits on how much sex he can have (if unmarried, zero; if married, depends on wife’s willingness) and he is likely also to view masturbation as problematic too. The unique combination of a moral aversion to masturbation + the inability to have sex often enough, coupled with ready availability of porn online, is what leads to this cycle: days of denial, a moment of caving, guilt, and then days of denial again. That mirrors addiction, but is actually just the male sex drive operating under artificial constraints.

This is just humiliating and weird but it’s worth pointing out for the record that “porn addiction” is not really a thing. Reported symptoms of addiction are only weakly related to the amount of consumption. Instead, what is actually much clearer from studies that have been done is that conservative religiosity and moral disapproval are strongly associated with perceived addiction, even after accounting for use. This means someone who believes porn is wrong may be more likely to report symptoms of “addiction” if they watch porn once a month (or in this case, twenty years ago) than someone with different moral views who consumes it more frequently. This is not how cigarettes or alcohol work. This is a totally different thing. It’s just a man who has been made to feel deeply insecure about his private sexual thoughts and behaviors, which is likely not that much different than any other man, to the point of performing this groveling spectacle in front of an audience who takes him at his word and assumes he’s some depraved animal.

@princessjedi26 @moazzrana @DhruvMishra1607 @Osint613 This whole conflict is just a generic security dilemma. The anti-Iran alliance has nuclear blackmail, a dozen bases, undefeatable standoff wonderweapons, total trade control & multiple alliances & they refuse grand compromise that includes all these. Of course Iran won't budge.

@moazzrana @DhruvMishra1607 @Osint613 They hid the enriched uranium. Iran had zero plans of discontinuing enrichment. And they had enough missiles to kill like a million people.

An Arab diplomat involved in contacts between Iran and the United States told Kan News that Iran believes, not only publicly but also behind the scenes, that it can stop the war on terms far more favorable to itself, not on terms set by the U.S. and Israel, which it views as nothing short of surrender. For this reason, Iran has not even responded to the Trump administration’s 15-point proposal. According to the same diplomat, the prevailing assessment within the ayatollah regime is that it can sustain a prolonged conflict and inflict even heavier damage on Israel, the United States, and regional countries. Therefore, diplomatic circles in the region believe that something highly unusual would need to happen within the next 24 hours to prevent the looming escalation. @kaisos1987

@FullMakenPantsu @alessandro_ajm Add- if a work has a fetishistic outlook thats cool. Fertile ground aesthetically But don't let me catch the artist simultaneously water it down with normative/moralistic expressions Its not fatal, but the tonal dissonace would be mildly annoying. Berserk rape suffers from this

@FullMakenPantsu @alessandro_ajm Unless we say "akshually it was subversive & not an actual fetish" & we spin in circles. Yes, I don't think hentai visuals are conductive to a "horrified" aesthetic engagement.

The Rape of Casca

@clockstiqqun TW-ist motivation is derived from a belief that America is an unparalleled demon. It isn't. It's a relatively gentle hegemon. The visible TW movement is an optical illusion. The people of the TW kinda like America. The supervised collaborations being part of the reason why.

this is ultimately the problem of third worldism- namely, that it correctly identifies a state of emerging conflict between poor and rich countries, but fails to connect this with the cause, which is to say globalism leading to slow equalization of position between them