Tobias Carlisle

My new book Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking is now available via amzn.to/3JfCPBq

Upside call skew across large-cap tech is now reaching meme-mania style extremes, increasingly echoing melt-up environments like 1997 and parts of 2003. zerohedge.com/the-market-ear…

Flows hedging flows hedging flows. The sheer scale of call option activity means the tail wags the dog. Options are now driving the underlying market. Dealer hedging increasingly determine short-term price action. Reflexivity has become structurally embedded in equities.

@nuancerocket AI speculation is suppressing almost everything tied to the real economy. Winners funded by liquidating losers.

@Greenbackd not looking great for the unsullied tbh.

This chart is showing a classic late-cycle / speculative momentum setup becoming increasingly unstable. Similar markets in: * late 1999 / early 2000 momentum exhaustion * late 2021 speculative growth blowoff * mini-versions in 2018 and 2020

@nuancerocket Amen. No one gets out alive.

@Greenbackd competition demystified is black pill.

@nuancerocket What, value guys?

@Greenbackd TOBIAS WONT SOMEBODY PLEASE THINK OF THE WOULDBE PERMANENT UNDERCLASS???

Value option expert @TimTravisValue joins @farnamjake1 and me on Value: After Hours LIVE TODAY at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P / 5.30pm UTC / 4.30am AEDT Watch it on the Acquirers Podcast channel: youtube.com/channel/UCJ27F………… Subscribe to be sent a reminder: youtube.com/channel/UCJ27F…

@RhinoTroy Not the same series---this is QQQ v IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)---but a similar path since 2007. 2000-2007 would do me.

Almost impossible to believe this will reverse, but it has in the past.

Value Options Letter On Demand Explainer youtu.be/uES4tFLPUB8?si… via @YouTube

Post-Financial Crisis (~2009–present) Growth began a structural, sustained dominance over Value that has only accelerated. Today, Growth = 74.4% vs. Value = 29.7%, an extreme and historically unprecedented gap. Whether this reverts—as it did violently after 2000—is arguably the central question facing equity investors today. Historically wide gaps eventually narrow, often sharply.

Global Growth is still historically expensive, while Value remains relatively cheap, but expensive to its own history. Financials at ~12.2x and Energy at ~12.5x remain cheap. Staples near 19.8x is notable. This chart supports the thesis that we are likely in a: * late-stage mega-cap growth dominance regime * with unusually wide valuation spreads Historically, those periods eventually reverse through: * earnings catch-up by value/cyclicals * multiple compression in expensive growth * broader market participation

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Bond market anxiety is translating very strongly into stock market pain.

Tweedy Browne’s John Spears And Jay Hill on: * AI Fear Is Creating New Opportunities * How Insider Buying Can Reveal Undervalued Stocks * Big Tech Buybacks May Be Destroying Shareholder Value * Why Market Flows Are Distorting Valuations * What Honey Badgers Can Teach Investors About Resilience * Why Cheap Stocks Still Matter In Today’s Market * Why The UK Market Is Deeply Undervalued * The Long-Term Struggles Of Value Investing

@KlendathuCap Still the best. Understood the assignment.

@teasri @CliffordAsness Fair enough. Good catch. The other side of that is low absolute earnings yields do lead to lower returns. With the lowest absolute yields in the history of the chart, the QQQs face significant headwinds.

@teasri You're going to have to explain this one to me, Sri. Speak as you might to a young child or a golden retriever.