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My new book Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking is now available via amzn.to/3JfCPBq
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Tobias Carlisle
23.5K posts
Tobias Carlisle
@Greenbackd
PM, Acquirers Funds® https://t.co/rjHtXEy6u0. Author, Soldier of Fortune (https://t.co/qm4uyNXH4Q) and Acquirer's Multiple (https://t.co/84Cyi4XIC5).
Los Angeles, CA 🇺🇲🇦🇺🦘 Katılım Şubat 2009
2K Takip Edilen70.7K Takipçiler
Tobias Carlisle retweetledi
US New Home Sales Collapse By Most In 13 Years In January zerohedge.com/personal-finan…
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Tobias Carlisle retweetledi
Tobias Carlisle retweetledi
The US housing market has shifted into one of the strongest buyer's markets on record:
Home sellers outnumbered buyers by 47.1% in December 2025, the largest gap since Redfin data began in 2013.
The percentage jumped by +7.1 points from November, the biggest monthly increase since September 2022.
The number of active homebuyers fell -5.9% MoM to 1.34 million, the lowest level on record.
Meanwhile, home sellers declined -1.1% MoM to 1.97 million, the lowest since February 2025.
By comparison, in November 2021, there were 36.5% fewer sellers than buyers.
This all comes as elevated housing costs and economic uncertainty continue to push buyers to the sidelines.
Buyers now hold unprecedented negotiating power, but only if they can afford to enter the market.
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Something's happening in housing.
Barchart@Barchart
BREAKING 🚨: U.S. Housing Market Home Sellers now outnumber Buyers by 530,000, the largest gap ever recorded 🤯
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The housing market is getting interesting.
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.@RealEJAntoni
Housing plummets: new home sales tanked to 587k (lowest since '22) in Jan, -17.6% M/M (most in 12 yrs) and -11.3% Y/Y (most in 3 yrs); median sale price fell 4.5% M/M and 6.8% Y/Y to just over $400k and average price slipped to just under $500k - ouch...
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"This is the cheapest we've seen in a decade, even lower than the pre-pandemic norms."
Nick Gerli@nickgerli1
Lennar, America's 2nd largest builder, has cut prices 24% from peak. Their price on new deliveries hit $491k in 2022. But they've cut by over $110k since then, through price reductions and mortgage buydowns. The result is a $374k net price in 2026, down -8% YoY and -24% from peak. This is the cheapest we've seen in a decade, even lower than the pre-pandemic norms. This is actually great news for homebuyers. Housing deflation is setting in, and Lennar is leading the charge for builders in returning affordability to buyers.
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The AI boom is shifting big tech from cash machines into cap ex-intensive builders.
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I said, "Value can rally against growth by almost 55% and just return to historically normal relative valuations."
Tobias Carlisle@Greenbackd
Chart shows the relative valuation for U.S. value stocks compared to U.S. growth stocks, normalized so that 1.0 represents the median. "Today, value stocks are trading at an approximate 35% discount to their typical relative valuation, a 10th percentile observation vs. history. Value needs to beat growth by almost 55% just to return to historically normal relative valuations." "Even if this abnormally wide valuation spread does not narrow immediately, we believe value can still outperform due to what we call the rebalancing effect. Value benefits as some growth companies disappoint and become cheaper, entering the value index. Value also benefits as some value companies surprise on the upside and get repriced into the growth index." Source: gmo.com/americas/resea…
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2-Year Treasury yield (blue line, market expectations of Fed policy) > Federal Funds Rate (red line, actual policy) suggests Fed is unlikely to cut.
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Taking the pulse of the physical economy. Growth is accelerating. Bullish for small-caps, cyclicals and value.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️@FreightAlley
Trucking spot rates are moving up again, tied to a 4-year cycle high. The trucking market hasn't been this hot in years.
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Chart shows the relative valuation for U.S. value stocks compared to U.S. growth stocks, normalized so that 1.0 represents the median.
"Today, value stocks are trading at an approximate 35% discount to their typical relative valuation, a 10th percentile observation vs. history. Value needs to beat growth by almost 55% just to return to historically normal relative valuations."
"Even if this abnormally wide valuation spread does not narrow immediately, we believe value can still outperform due to what we call the rebalancing effect. Value benefits as some growth companies disappoint and become cheaper, entering the value index. Value also benefits as some value companies surprise on the upside and get repriced into the growth index."
Source: gmo.com/americas/resea…
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"The US economy now requires significantly less energy per unit of GDP than in earlier decades, reflecting efficiency gains and a shift away from manufacturing toward services (chart). As a result, oil price spikes are less inflationary and do less damage to real economic activity than in the past when energy intensity was much higher."
"The economy's resilience means that oil price shocks cause far less persistent inflation and much less severe growth disruptions than in the past. Oil shocks are less likely to trigger the kind of sustained stagflation seen in the past, particularly during the 1970s."
@yardeni
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Tobias Carlisle retweetledi
Def worth a listen…
…Roepers/Atlantic’s investing/constructivist approach & track record speaks for itself, for decades now!
Tobias Carlisle@Greenbackd
Our chat with "gentleman activist" Alexander Roepers on: * Alexander Roepers’ Value Investing Strategy * Why Alexander Roepers Avoids Tech, Biotech, and Financial Stocks * Why Europe and Japan Offer Hidden Value Investing Opportunities * Three Catalysts That Unlock Value in Mid-Cap Stocks * The $2B–$20B Sweet Spot: How Atlantic Targets Mid-Size Companies * Constructive Activism: The “Gentleman Activist” Approach Explained * Dynamic Position Sizing: How Roepers Trades Around Core Holdings * Case Study: Why Kirby Corporation Became Atlantic’s Largest Holding * Compounding: From Berkshire Hathaway to the Limits of Exponential Growth
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ROIC, and ROA and ROE are the strongest predictors of stock performance. Each measures how efficiently a company converts capital into profits.
Interest Coverage (EBIT / interest expense) captures financial strength and ability to service debt.
Markets reward companies that:
• generate high returns on capital
• are financially resilient
• require less capital to grow
This is essentially the economic moat + capital efficiency signal.
Gross margin is the weakest quality metric.
Rene Sellmann@ReneSellmann
This is my favorite chart from last year ⬇️ In a nutshell, clearly not all "Quality" is created equal. Since 1985, the "most alpha" has been found in two places: ✅ Capital Efficiency: ROIC, ROE & ROA ✅ Solvency: Interest & Debt Coverage Buying "High Gross Margin" sounds sexy, but the market rewards those who actually generate returns on their capital.
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"For a surprising number of people, including the atomic scientists who run the Doomsday Clock, the apocalypse is always nigh."
Banger from @RPSeawright
betterletter.substack.com/p/cassandras-c…
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Worse than the GFC on a sustained basis.
Nick Gerli@nickgerli1
2) To see how ridiculous this lead is, take a look at the monthly graph of Pending Sales. They rose from an index of 70.8 in January (which was the worst January reading ever) to 72.1 in February. No sane person would interpret this result as an "improvement" in macro housing market conditions. Especially with the backdrop of mortgage rates falling below 6% in February.
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Valuation spreads (how cheaply value stocks trade relative to growth stocks) measured as the Price/Book ratio of value stocks divided by growth stocks in the US.
"On average, US value stocks have traded at a 78% discount (i.e., 22 cents on the dollar) relative to growth stocks over the full five-decade horizon. Yet with the rise of Big Tech in the 2010s, this valuation spread has now widened to historically extreme levels, with value stocks trading at 10 cents on the dollar relative to growth stocks today. This discount is so extreme that even if today’s relative valuation of cheap stocks were to double going forward, we would only be returning to the long-term average valuation spread in the US.
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US valuation spreads today remain as wide as they were at the end of 2020, when value proceeded to outperform growth by 7.2% annualized over five years. Therefore, we believe it’s reasonable for today’s value investors to assume a similar level of outperformance over the next five years. There is also reason to hope that value outperformance over the next five years could be even greater than 7.2% per year because the value premium peaked at 9–15% annualized during previous clusters of positive value premiums."
@verdadcap
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