Philip Gunst

MOST ACTIVE CHINA COKING #COAL CONTRACT RISES 10.59%% TO 1,285 YUAN/METRIC TON (mktnews.com/flashDetail.ht…)

@Alexand51943682 Don’t think Eby’s visit is linked to us - just a positive sign geopolitically

@GunstPhilip I agree that both are good news, but a visit later this year seems like we have to wait several month's from now? Unless an Indian bid comes in first, but then again, they like to play the long game.

Two interesting developments for Colonial Coal $CAD.V $CCARF in the past 24 hours. Mar 19: BC Premier Eby announces trade mission to China - first since taking office in 2022. Mar 20: Australia’s NSW state bans new coal mine applications. Australia is the world’s largest coking coal exporter. NSW banning greenfield projects means the global pipeline of new supply just got significantly constrained. Development-ready assets like Colonial’s 695Mt in BC become relatively scarcer. On the demand side, we’ve seen political alignment at both federal and provincial levels in Canada: - January: PM Carney reset relations with China - Now: BC Premier explicitly highlighting energy trade with China Coking coal is energy infrastructure for steel production. Both India (critical mineral designation in January) and China (domestic production declining 8% in 2026) need to secure offshore supply. Canada appears to be positioning itself as the alternative to Australia. biv.com/news/asia-paci… bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@alex_stampe There’s some cultural aspects to the narrative of bidding first. Some won’t be overbid (even though you get a second chance) from the optics of it

Happy to see that we despite a quieter period from the Indian press related to the India-Canada CEPA and associated streams, we continue to hear the link between Canada-India and #MetallurgicalCoal #CokingCoal. Assuming that Colonial Coal $CAD.V representatives successfully agreed on terms with Indian PSUs during management’s trip in February - and that Canadian and Indian governments have agreed on terms and/or provided the necessary assurances, one must assume that the current “vacuum” is tactically related. I see three scenarios: (1) India is internally aligning the bidding tactics. Should you come in with a higher first bid or a lowball bid assuming that bid tension is not present. Should you play out @NMDCSteelLtd first and follow up with @CoalIndiaHQ? Or maybe come with a combined bidding force? (2) India is trying to secure short-term supply by acquiring $ANGL.L AU portfolio - going against their own public communication about lowering dependency on Australia and the royalties in Queensland. This however also goes against my own intel on the remaining bidders in the process - that being said, very limited public coverage is out there on the Anglo process right now (3) India wants to await China or other bidders and see if they can avoid making the first move. This would speak against their own priorities (they are THE player with the biggest supply pressure at the minute and the player most aggressively positioning themselves publicly with the press coverage the past months) but would be in the spirit of Indian behavior, bureaucracy and negotiation tactics. (1) is most likely but (3) in the spirit of Indian business behavior 101. (1) would also to some extent be beneficial as both Partha B. and Citi Bank have strong relations and connections into @CoalIndiaHQ (and would be engaged accordingly). On the flipside, a coordinated effort might be more time consuming (hence, why we might not have a first bid yet). The situation in Middle East is currently benefitting short-term #cokingcoal prices but not a factor in our price setting as we are priced after long-term futures. However, India is harmed by the current situation as logistics is challenged in the current landscape and 95% of their coal is imported. China has a higher domestic supply. That being said, Chinese imports of Canadian #metallurgicalcoal set new highs in Q1 2026 - China is definitely a playing ball with Canada.

@Elcapitano0011 What do you mean probability of no current bid process? No official process has been initiated given no first bid has been approved/signed. The conversations are ongoing though to get a first bid in place - that’s my read on management’s activities at least

@GunstPhilip What about the probability of no current bid process?

@Stefan_Skippy US$2/ton is my base case - upside to $2.5-3.5/t imo

@GunstPhilip What is your end point here? $3 a ton or $2.5 is mine.

Fascinating how quickly sentiment can change. Colonial Coal $CAD.V is down 25% from the top and is now slow bleeding daily on close to non-existing volume. In the meantime, fundamentals haven’t changed a bit unless you believe the Middle East situation is affecting China, India or Glencore’s willingness to buy high quality coking coal. I think there’s a lot of retail holders that are fearing that we are in the process of seeing the same outcome for the 3rd time with a top at 3.5-3.7 and a setback to $1. However, the situation is fundamentally different this time. You have Indian government officials and PSUs publicly stating they are in the market to acquire coking coal assets in Canada. You are having Colonial management traveling to meet with management representatives and bankers/lawyers of both Chinese and Indian suitors - several times. The nerves are kicking in it seems - once again. I’m still a buyer at these levels.

Dear Shareholders, As we approach the four-month mark since Colonial Coal released its MCR, I asked CEO David Austin whether he would be willing to share an update with retail holders on developments during this period. Following a conversation with him this past week, I have been given permission to share the following. Discussions and negotiations are ongoing with several interested parties. The strategic importance of coking coal in the global supply chain - and its growing recognition as a national security consideration in both China and India - continues to strengthen our position as one of the few high-quality, development-ready assets remaining in the market. As has been noted elsewhere, management spent approximately two weeks in India during February, meeting with chief executives, board members of PSUs, and senior government officials. As reported in the Indian press, both NMDC and CIL are actively exploring the acquisition of high-quality coking coal assets in Canada. A larger Indian delegation has also visited Canada in 2026. The picture is similarly encouraging on the China front. A delegation visited Canada in 2026, and management has met with executives and board members of Chinese PSUs, as well as investment bankers, in both China and Hong Kong during the year. The Canadian government - at both the provincial and federal levels - is actively engaged in the process, providing suitors with comfort and assurances of support. This includes potential infrastructure co-investment and commitments related to fast-track permitting. Management remains committed to keeping shareholders informed. However, on the advice of legal counsel, they are limiting direct communication with individual shareholders and refraining from public appearances or promotional activity given the current state of negotiations. David thanks you for your continued support.

China just made coking coal a national security asset. Yesterday, the new 5-year plan of China was published at the National People’s Congress and while there was a lot of focus on defence and budgets, there was also a “little” nugget in there for Colonial Coal $CAD.V. The headline number: 1.3 trillion yuan (~$188.5B) in Ultra-Long Special Treasury Bonds, earmarked explicitly for “major national strategies” and “security capacity building.” That’s not infrastructure spending. That’s a war chest for resource sovereignty. What’s the link to coking coal specifically? Thermal coal is being phased down. At the same time, coking coal is being elevated - decoupled from commodity politics and reframed as an industrial security pillar. The logic is straightforward - and it actually links to the Chinese defence strategy. Military modernization means high-strength steel which automatically means premium hard coking coal. A 7% defense budget increase (now 1.78T yuan) doesn’t mean much if your blast furnaces depend on spot markets or diplomatic goodwill. The 15th Five-Year Plan makes the overseas mandate explicit: - The Chinese wants to Phase down thermal coal - They want to strengthen the strategic mineral reserves to fight the constraints being put in place by especially US currently - State-led acquisitions in Tier-1 jurisdictions is being encouraged China basically just did the same as the Indians - they are just not as vocal about it as the Indians. British Columbia isn’t just a mining region anymore. It’s on a shopping list. And in the meantime, local politicians and lobbyists in Canada is lobbying hard for the Canadian federal government to make coking coal a strategic mineral in Canada as well. It would make the permitting process for a suitor of $CAD.V much easier. The shift from China in one line: Beijing isn’t looking to buy coking coal. It’s looking to own the source. When sovereign capital meets a supply gap, the bid doesn’t dry up - it gets institutionalized. This is why this deal is so got damn politically dependent - and why it takes so long (still). npcobserver.com/wp-content/upl… x.com/i/status/20299…

Fantastic news! Coal India explores partnerships with Canada for coking coal. “During the discussions, CIL conveyed its interest in pursuing partnerships in critical mineral assets including coking coal, and the mineral processing sector.” Happy to see Mark Carney also leaning in to supporting the Canadian coking coal sector. Ready for deal announcement of Colonial Coal $CAD.V $CCARF

I am a buyer of Colonial Coal $CAD.V $CCARF at 2.80. Strong setback from 3.70 top and retesting previous close low of ~2.85. Would like to see it churn here. Setback mostly due to no concrete mentioning of Colonial Coal in the Carney trade mission to India over the weekend and due to the general market turmoil ongoing due to the US/Israel interventions in Iran. Complete silence right now on all fronts for the past ~3-5 days. Let's hope it's a good sign.

@MartinBrigsted Don't understand

@GunstPhilip What world be your best guess for a approx date for a deal to happen if we are not to see the SP fall back towards 2ish territory?

A bit disappointing press conference from New Delhi as the announced MoUs (5) indicates that Canada and India aren’t as far with the CEPA discussions. I would have liked them to have announced more of the ToR to understand where the capital of the trade agreement should come from. The positive is that coking coal was part of the five MoUs (EVR) which sets a positive bar for coming announcements. We never expected Carney and Modi to announce something related to $CAD.V as it would be difficult as a listed company and due to the bid tension allowed from other players like China, Glencore and Peabody (examples). We will await the coming week(s) activities and headlines to see if NMDC or CIL further firms up their overseas (Canada) acquisition exploration. Following CIL Chairman and CEO’s meeting with Carney yesterday, an interview was published. Specifically on the question of coking coal’s vulnerable situation for India and overseas acquisitions, the CEO and Chairman stated that they are “exploring opportunities based on techno-commercial viability and logistics feasibility. Then you can think about that for a second 😉 financialexpress.com/business/news/…

“Mark Carney spent Sunday meeting with …Coal India chairman and managing director Shri B. Sairam…” timminstoday.com/national-news/… $CAD.V $CCARF

While everyone has their eyes locked to India and Mark Carney’s visit, the saga of Canadian Dehua (CDI) finally came to an end this February. And the Chinese have cleaned up the debt, divested the weak links and made them sole owner of the portfolio masterpiece which can connect to Colonial Coal’s portfolio $CAD.V. By isolating and then securing the "Masterpiece" (Murray River) while neutralizing the "Legacy Dehua" baggage, the Chinese state-backed apparatus has cleared the runway for an optimal Colonial Coal acquisition design. The most critical move happened on February 11, 2026, when Huiyong Holdings officially closed the acquisition of the remaining interests in the Murray River project. For a decade, Murray River was paralyzed by the "interlinked" mess of Canadian Dehua and the Liu family. By using the bankruptcy to "clean the table," Huiyong (and by extension, the Chinese state) now has 100% sole control of the project. Compared to CAD’s portfolio, Murray River has its "Substantial Start" determination. Its Environmental Assessment Certificate is valid for the life of the mine. This is the only large-scale, underground-ready, permitted metallurgical coal project in the region. What makes Huiyong interesting is their link to Baowu - they are the Technical Proxy for China Baowu Steel Group, the world's largest steelmaker. If you want to build a powerhouse of a Canadian HCC portfolio, Murray River x Huguenot x Flatbed is a pretty strong one. China is still my best guess for a winner of Colonial Coal despite all the noise in the past ~3 months from India. Will be interesting to see! cfcanada.fticonsulting.com/canadiandehuai…

Signing an NDA is a nothing burger - I have signed three NDAs this week but doesn’t mean that I’m doing anything even remotely close to signing a deal. I’m pretty sure that a deal was very close in 2019, 2021 and 2024 but different conditions caused that it didn’t happen (is my read). I think there’s s deeper story to David’s quietness in the past 18 months which you should probably ask him about yourself. I’m not really concerned anymore about whether we see a bid - just a matter of when and size

Philip, we have heard directly from David in years past about “15 interested buyers”, “signed NDA’s”, “hoping to announce in the next few weeks or months”, etc. I absolutely believe David was telling the truth. And yet out of the very large pool of interested buyers nothing has transpired, over and over again, going on upwards of 8-9 years now (if, in fact the properties were put up for sale around 2017). Have you ever heard David explain how it is that 15 different companies could all disappear from the negotiating table, with many of them possibly doing so repeatedly? Have we ever been told some of the key barriers to closing a deal or do we just have to use educated guesses? I’m shocked if David doesn’t feel an obligation to share some details, unless he’s truly convinced that doing so would harm on-going and future negotiations. This has become absolutely bizarre (!), and yet I agree with you that the current climate has never been more favorable for getting a deal done, and we could be getting very close to a major announcement. $CAD.V $CCARF

I guess this is the best header we could have imagined ahead of Mark Carney's visit starting today in India. "India, Canada to sign "immense" range of deals during Carney visit". Let's hope that Colonial Coal $CAD.V $CCARF is amongst one of them. Happy to see Critical Minerals back on the agenda also for the India meeting. While Canada is still not too willing to talk a lot about coal (even though coking coal is amongst the biggest exports to India), I think India would love a coking coal headline. Carney will be meeting with several PSUs according to Bloomberg - I am hearing that several of the steel and coal companies we also expect is involved with Colonial is on that meeting list. Exciting weeks. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…