
Ronin
16K posts

Ronin
@Guvstad
Markets, crypto & psychology. Thinking in liquidity…. signal over noise -ex Cambridge Uni, ex Morgan Stanley, ex HF, ex communicated



$BTC Long POI (midrange) not reached yet, still no longs. However, short POI might be coming up. Alright, nice move further down on $BTC since last post and overall from our 76k level. Now, we reached all the way down to just under 69k, with a small bounce forming off 68.8k so far. This entire move is based on my famous FOMC reversal theory combined with the 76k key level rejection level which we used as the point of our first breakout attempt long TP. That long was first breakout long attempt we punted upon closing above 73k and took towards 76k, one that worked out for a 2.3k move for us, but then ultimately halted and didn't break our 76k level, causing failure of follow through. After that sign of failure at 76k, we held off on longs ever since reaching 74.2k, exactly based upon our temporary bearish shift. I am still in that frame of mind of a temporary bearish shift, not looking to long yet, until we finally reach midrange again, or until at least this and half of next week has passed (closing in on the monthly close). It would be nice to ride it further down with a short, but on this level, 70.8k, shorting is not ideal. Especially since we are seeing a large amount of short aggression into the current local low of 68.8k. Funny to see because we reached below the 0.5 of the leg into the golden zone, silver pocket and, local POI on top of a high timeframe POI-top retest. A classic Astro-proof confluence of price elements, ideal for an internal bounce. On top, the sentiment of the idea of the FOMC reversal and general downtrend is becoming quite obvious, hence the appetite for shorts. Not putting any money on this bounce personally. But this is typically enough to indeed provide a bounce to fresh short POI's. So again, not one I am looking to long, but once finished, one I am looking to short. Would be nice if we reach close to 73k, because it would offer us a second chance to re-short given we fumbled our first one and that level is close to pick up that entry again. Not blindly shorting either, what I am looking for, is a move up that looks fast and strong (but isn't) and indeed induces a lot of longs at the same time causing local top behaviour. If all elements are present, that's a nice short for me towards new local lows and hopefully midrange. We will see. So far, it's been a nice time staying side lined on longs regardless, but having a short on top would make it even better. Not from here, but from higher indeed. That's my plan going forward, based on what I revealed here to be a fraction of the parts I revealed here, combining into my logic and system, explaining why I expect lower but am hopeful for a short entry. Enjoy.







That looks like a confirmed break out. This week needs another leg up to really confirm this. As per my thesis, 80k follows soon, unless the orange swan has other plans again.


Next major resistance will be 80k-ish. The weekly RSI is about to break it's MA again, below on chart what happened previous times this occured. We are still in territory to reject from it so we are not fully out of the woods - the next 1-2 weeks will be telling. Remember the weekly RSI here is turning around from levels seen every bear market bottom we had.

BTC 63k ETH 1800 My next long zones, I am already in - kept DCA'ing. If these numbers hit they are my full pull trigger. Also buying some spot TAO here (first spot buy in months and months)


Next key zones I am looking at. 74 remains major resistance, although it barely had support on the way down. After that we should eye about 80k as there is a 2-3k CME gap and good liquidity.








