Howdog

165 posts

Howdog

Howdog

@HKresner

Katılım Ekim 2022
52 Takip Edilen20 Takipçiler
Howdog
Howdog@HKresner·
@AdamBLiv Adam, Do you believe MSTR is a safer bet than ASST leaps?
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Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
How to get rich: 1. Buy ASST 2. Wait a few years You'll see why with this simple math breakdown:
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv

🚀ASST 2026 MOON MATH🚀 ASST is set up for absolute monster performance, and this is simply because the market is recognizing the balance sheet is set up for a MEGA-AMPLIFIED Bitcoin move, and it is materially de-risked via the funding mechanism of perpetual preferred equity (SATA). Using today’s ASST tracker snapshot: 15,000.5 BTC $505.95M debt + preferred 20,542 sats per basic share ASST price: $16.88 That gets you to roughly: Current CEBE: ~11,940 sats/share Current CEBE value: ~$9.62/share Current ASST / CEBE multiple: ~1.76x Now assume ASST simply repeats April’s capital raising pace, about $71.13M per month, for the rest of the year. If that money is raised through preferred-style senior capital, then at flat BTC, common CEBE is basically unchanged. Why? Because the new BTC is offset by new claims. So the upside case is not “they bought more BTC, line go up.” The upside case is drag compression. If BTC rises, the fixed dollar senior stack shrinks in BTC terms, while the enlarged BTC treasury reprices upward. That is when common starts getting paid. My implied ASST projections, holding today’s CEBE multiple constant, and April's pace is repeated each month with ZERO GROWTH: BTC flat at $80.5k → $16.88 BTC to $120k → $33.24 BTC to $150k → $45.31 BTC to $200k → $65.00 BTC to $250k → $84.33 BPS can show “growth” even when common got nothing. CEBE shows what common actually owns. If ASST keeps raising at April’s pace, then at flat BTC the structure is mostly neutral. If BTC rips, the preferred wrapper starts turning into a compression engine for common equity. That’s the whole game.

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Howdog
Howdog@HKresner·
@BitfuryGeorge Thank you George. I am patiently waiting for the re-rating! 🚀
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Howdog
Howdog@HKresner·
@mikealfred Thanks Mike! Sage advice as always
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Mike Alfred
Mike Alfred@mikealfred·
Great day for market makers to run through some stops. Very high fear, very low liquidity. Perfect environment for highly manipulated trading. If you’re smart, you just take the day off and come back on Monday unless you want or need to buy something in which case time to work.
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Howdog
Howdog@HKresner·
@ilzmcfly With only positive AI data center forecast since. Bullish.
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McFly
McFly@ilzmcfly·
$CIFR is down -32% from its ATH.
McFly tweet media
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Howdog
Howdog@HKresner·
@mikealfred After de-cipher-ing the messages and with your Asst-ance, I am positioned for success.
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Mike Alfred
Mike Alfred@mikealfred·
This stock rally is broadening and expanding exactly as forecasted. Watch what happens next. Should be extremely lucrative to those who have positioned correctly.
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Howdog
Howdog@HKresner·
@rftylerpage Murderer’s Row! Congrats to the expanding team!
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Tyler Page
Tyler Page@rftylerpage·
It's starting to feel like the '27 Yankees around here...2026 is going to be gigantic. $CIFR
Cipher Digital@CipherInc

Cipher is pleased to welcome industry veterans @lee_bratcher and @_drewarmstrong_ to the team. *Lee Bratcher joins as Head of Policy & Government Affairs *Drew Armstrong joins as Head of Strategic Initiatives “As Cipher continues to grow into one of the world’s largest data center developers, adding experienced leaders of the caliber of Lee and Drew is critical,” said Tyler Page, Chief Executive Officer. “Their combined regulatory, strategic, and industry experience will help accelerate our growth as we continue on our path to becoming the leading innovator in the AI and HPC data center industry.” Press Release: globenewswire.com/news-release/2…

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Xavi
Xavi@_sinners9·
@HKresner True, warrants got a rougher week. You should check Mike’s telegram channel. Search on telegram “MikeAlfredCalls”. I’ve been following his calls and they really help make sense of these swings.
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Mike Alfred
Mike Alfred@mikealfred·
Team, AI data centers have been dubbed national strategic assets in the United States. If you don’t understand what this means, please ask someone nearby for help. Don’t do anything dumb in the meantime.
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George Kikvadze
George Kikvadze@BitfuryGeorge·
Over the weekend @rftylerpage highlighted the depth of Cipher’s energy origination team. Very few people realize the quality of the team lead by Samy + how early the team was in Texas — securing deals and building trust with ERCOT all the way back in 2020! That early groundwork is a major reason why $CIFR now sits in such a strong position with a 3 GIGA + pipeline. HINT: ITS ALL IN THE BOOK
George Kikvadze tweet mediaGeorge Kikvadze tweet media
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NightHawk Capital
NightHawk Capital@NighthawkTradez·
AI is not a bubble and just imagine what your portfolio will look like in 5-10 years holding these AI infra companies. $IREN $CIFR $NBIS $WULF $BITF
NightHawk Capital tweet media
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₿itcoin ₿utcher 🥩 🐑 🐷
₿itcoin ₿utcher 🥩 🐑 🐷@bitcoinbutcher1·
$CIFR Margin of Safety Analysis After signing @Google @fluidstack @awscloud to colocation deals at Barber Lake and Black Pearl, the value of those deals is approximately $12-15 per share (depends on share count assumptions) while $cifr closed at $14.15 per share. What's the big deal? That's in your range you say. Barber Lake and Black Pearl only represent 600 MW of $cifr power portfolio. Over 3 GW of potential deals remain; more than 5x the current executed deal sizes. I've seen a few accounts recently assign a value to the recent deals and make this point but I wanted to provide a little more transparency in how I got to $12-15 per share as well as the detail behind the remaining portfolio. Check out the math and pipeline details for yourself in attachments. Yes, the 3 Ms and Colchis require ERCOT approval but Barber Lake and Black Pearl protect your downside. @rftylerpage is on the record stating that ERCOT approvals are more than likely and delay of approval is the biggest threat. This is the same man that promised you deal(s) in 2025 and provided three to the people. Tyler has his shareholder's back and we got his back. Do not let macro market tantrums impact your long term view on AI. Power remains the bottleneck. Remember, fortune favors the bold. But is buying $cifr really that bold when you consider the signed deals? The margin of safety gives you objective permission to strike and wait for your future gains.
₿itcoin ₿utcher 🥩 🐑 🐷 tweet media₿itcoin ₿utcher 🥩 🐑 🐷 tweet media₿itcoin ₿utcher 🥩 🐑 🐷 tweet media
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Tyler Page
Tyler Page@rftylerpage·
GM
Cipher Digital@CipherInc

Cipher Mining Signs Additional 56 MW, 10-Year AI Hosting Agreement with Fluidstack In this transaction, Cipher will deliver 39 MW of Critical IT Load to Fluidstack at its Barber Lake site, securing ~$830M in contracted revenue over the initial 10-year term. The agreement also includes two 5-year extension options. If exercised, these extension options would bring the total contracted revenue to ~$2.0 billion for this transaction and ~$9.0 billion in total for the entire lease. With these newly contracted megawatts, Fluidstack is increasing the size of its original transaction and leasing the entire 300 MW of capacity at $CIFR's Barber Lake site. To support the buildout, @Google will backstop an additional $333M of @fluidstack's lease obligations. “We’re excited to expand our partnerships with Fluidstack and Google as we develop the remaining current capacity at our Barber Lake site,” said Tyler Page, Cipher’s CEO. “This third transaction further validates Cipher’s position as a leader in HPC development and underscores the strong momentum that will continue to drive growth across our pipeline of sites.” Full Press Release here: bit.ly/3XCnhez

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Tyler Page
Tyler Page@rftylerpage·
A couple of points to highlight here…in @CipherInc model, we sign lease deals to build to tenant’s design, and construction takes 12+ months, so deals can be signed well in advance of energization. Before 2028, we have energization scheduled at Stingray site in 2026 (100mw) and Reveille site in 2027 (70mw). Also, our Colchis site, which is scheduled for 2028 energization, is massive (1 GW!), and a site of that size will take quite a bit of time to build, so I hope we will be signing a tenant well in advance. MOST importantly, we have the best origination team in the industry. They have originated 12 sites in our current portfolio. They still come to work and hunt every day. There will be more sites. And there will be more lease deals. $CIFR
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Howdog
Howdog@HKresner·
@mikealfred I have Lonsdaleite 🙌 hands! Stronger than 💎 diamonds
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