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So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B... Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding). It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled massive capex increases. Even as seen with $TSM earnings, every major semi is going through a massive capex cycle to meet AI demand. And all three memory makers have printed from hbm3e and nand... so the next capex cycle is probably not like the last (meaning a lot more spend). Like $ASML, this is hyper-cyclical but I wanted exposure to the upcoming HBM4 capex ramp over these next few months. Thought I'd put this name on people's radar alongside $LPK (glass core substrates) as a functional monopoly. But I do feel like this timing is about right while every machine supplier is having a massive re-rating yet this was relatively flat. Not exactly a new find, since a few other analysts + random followers had this name but hope I get the timing right. (Disclaimer: I do hold positions, this just TLDR of my own thoughts, please don’t copy trade)

Ok, it takes two to TACO and ultimately Iranians showed the respect. The hedge sacrifice themselves and will go to zero, but it’s fine :) Just by shorting CLK2026 from $104 to cover the cost of those miserable puts. I’m holding storage/optics/space/🦞 and will share the list

From this level, the more rapidly $SLV rises, the more volatility you will experience soon after. The rate of advance is simply unsustainable. That doesn't mean the insanity can't continue - and for how long is anyone's guess. But my guess is we are within days of at least an intermediate term top, and certainly we are in for a big pickup in volatility. The alpha monster is about ready to turn into a beta beast.

UPDATE: I am still holding my original $SPY short position from 10/29. It is currently trading at a fractional profit from my entry. I've recently added some longs which has diluted the net short exposure and now, by the default, it's a hedge with near zero risk. Yes, I had a really nice short term profit +6R. But I went into the trade in case we melted down; low risk high reward. If stocks can setup and breakouts start working, I will gladly take a breakeven stop on my short to be net long individual stocks. That's it. I entered perfect. In hindsight, I didn't cover perfect but I perfectly traded my plan. And I still have not been stopped.

IPO base in space related 🚀 been in it a few days adding as it improved was the plan $KRMN negating a slight head and shoulders look also tends to be bullish. Slightly different rules for IPO bases...