Hasan T. Alhasan حسن الحسن

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Hasan T. Alhasan حسن الحسن

Hasan T. Alhasan حسن الحسن

@HTAlhasan

Senior Fellow for Middle East Policy @IISS_org | Foreign policy & economic statecraft | Gulf & S Asia | PhD @KingsIndiaInst | Formerly @BahrainPMO

Bahrain | London | दिल्ली Katılım Nisan 2010
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Hasan T. Alhasan حسن الحسن
There is a key geopolitical angle that is missing here: the UAE has been the most US-aligned partner in the context of the Iran War when most others have lost confidence in Washington, and at great cost to itself. The US needs to create an upside to keep partners onside.
Chris McGuire@ChrisRMcGuire

NEW: The Department of Commerce just removed all export controls on AI chips on the UAE government and its AI national champion, G42. This is a HUGE deal, poses massive national security risks, will slow the US AI buildout, and will cause the largest data centers in the world to be built in the UAE instead of the US. These license requirements were in place because of significant national security concerns related to the UAE government and G42 in particular, which are well documented in public reporting. The UAE government and G42 can now buy as many AI chips as they want. Here's what will likely happen as a result of AI chips being uncapped to the UAE: (1) The UAE/G42 will buy millions of Blackwell chips (~6 million Blackwells are being made this year, so this would be a big chunk of global capacity); (2) UAE-owned G42 will build AI data centers globally, and be the first global competitor to U.S. hyperscalers, which currently dominate that market; (3) The UAE will build the largest data centers in the world, will become the world's second largest hub for AI compute, and leading AI models will be hosted in the UAE. This will pose enormous national security risks, as the UAE will become one of the most important AI compute hubs in the world, just as it now is for oil, but also a backdoor for China. It will create a massive foreign-owned competitor to the most important US companies. It will provide one of the few countries in the world with the money and interest to build AI models that rival the United States, with the tools to do it. And most importantly, it will exacerbate the already extreme supply shortage for AI chips in the United States, slowing the U.S. AI buildout. How does the United States benefit from this? How is this America First? This policy just seems like it's Steve Witkoff first, given G42 purchased 49% of World Liberty Financial in 2025 in an effort to convince the administration to let them buy large numbers of AI chips. That seems to have worked. It is hard to overstate how far-reaching the implications of this decision could be for the global AI infrastructure buildout, which was previously dominated by the US--but now has legitimate non-US competitors that have extensive ties to China. And the AI chip supply crunch for US firms will get tighter, making it even harder to build data centers in the US. Why are we doing this? Who benefits?

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IISS News
IISS News@IISS_org·
In return for the cessation of hostilities and resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the US makes a range of financial and security concessions to Iran that enter into force during the initial 60-day period following the signing of the US–Iran MoU. The Arab Gulf states are publicly supporting the US–Iran MoU to avoid further hostilities. However, the associated concessions from the US come with numerous security concerns for the region. Read the latest analysis by Dr @HTAlhasan: go.iiss.org/4xQ2aGt
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Hasan T. Alhasan حسن الحسن
In my latest for @IISS_org, I argue that the Arab Gulf states are in the unenviable position of having to support a flawed US-Iran deal that fails to address their concerns and risks empowering their adversary, Iran, to prevent a worse outcome: a return to war.
IISS News@IISS_org

The Arab Gulf states are publicly supporting the US–Iran MoU to avoid further hostilities. However, the associated concessions from the US in the MoU come with numerous security concerns for the region. Read the latest analysis by Dr Hasan Alhasan (@HTAlhasan): go.iiss.org/4xQ2aGt

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IISS News
IISS News@IISS_org·
The Arab Gulf states are publicly supporting the US–Iran MoU to avoid further hostilities. However, the associated concessions from the US in the MoU come with numerous security concerns for the region. Read the latest analysis by Dr Hasan Alhasan (@HTAlhasan): go.iiss.org/4xQ2aGt
IISS News tweet media
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Becky Anderson
Becky Anderson@BeckyCNN·
Marco Rubio is here in the UAE, then heading onward to Kuwait and Bahrain — the three Gulf allies have been hit hardest by Iran. Can Rubio reassure leaders that their interests won’t be sidelined? @HTAlhasan and @FirasMaksad weigh in.
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Becky Anderson
Becky Anderson@BeckyCNN·
Will Middle Eastern countries give in to President Trump’s push to sign the Abraham Accords? @HTAlhasan doesn’t think so. Here’s why: (1/3)
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Hasan T. Alhasan حسن الحسن
A very timely inaugural piece by my colleague Tomisha Bino, who joins IISS-Middle East as Research Fellow for Energy Geopolitics. She examines the region’s nuclear-security landscape in light of the Iran war, and what Gulf nuclear newcomers can do to mitigate their exposure.
IISS News@IISS_org

Recent events need not jeopardise plans by Gulf states to acquire nuclear power plants. Yet precedents, doctrinal realities and the fragile regional-security landscape require nuclear newcomers in the Gulf to consider the risks of attacks against civilian nuclear facilities and potential mitigation measures. Explore the latest #ChartingMiddleEast analysis by Tomisha Bino: bit.ly/4dlRPdo

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IISS News
IISS News@IISS_org·
The Arab Gulf states are looking to replenish and strengthen their air and missile defences following the Iranian attacks earlier this year. While there has been a flurry of activity, rearmament will require overcoming multiple challenges. Read the latest analysis by @albert_vidal_: go.iiss.org/4wt4ann
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Joumanna Nasr Bercetche
Joumanna Nasr Bercetche@JoumannaTV·
“Iranian regime believes it can outlast Trump and therefore has no real reason to compromise” There are 3 camps emerging in the Gulf @HTAlhasan tells me regarding the approach to the Iranian regional threat * Accommodative (Oman). Compromises need to be made to a large neighbor who isn’t going away * Confrontationists (UAE, Bahrain). Diplomacy has failed. Military deterrence needed - somewhere in the middle (KSA, Qatar, Kuwait) ultimately no alternative to an immediate de-escalation as military strikes haven’t achieved political effects Watch here: bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
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Vivian Nereim
Vivian Nereim@viviannereim·
"A group of four regional powers – Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye – are closing ranks...The new Middle Eastern quadrilateral appears to be an attempt to counterbalance Israel’s designs to ‘redraw’ the map of the Middle East and to address shared security concerns, most notably the United States–Israeli war with Iran," @HTAlhasan writes iiss.org/online-analysi…
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Hasan T. Alhasan حسن الحسن
As Kuwait and Qatar report fresh attacks, the Arab Gulf states risk being drawn into prolonged low-intensity warfare by Iran and Iran-backed militias in Iraq — a danger intensified by Trump’s seemingly desperate push to put a lid on the war ahead of his meeting with Xi.
The Associated Press@AP

The British military said a ship caught fire after being hit by an unknown projectile off the coast of Qatar. There were no reported casualties, it said. apnews.com/article/iran-u…

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IISS News
IISS News@IISS_org·
Since the recent conflict in Iran, a new geopolitical bloc involving Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye has been forming in the Middle East. While not formalised, the four states are poised to tackle shared security concerns together. Read the latest analysis by @HTAlhasan: go.iiss.org/4evtnY3
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Hasan T. Alhasan حسن الحسن
Once Trump's attention shifts elsewhere and the US draws down its military presence in the region, there will be little to stop Iran from exercising economic blackmail against the Gulf states (and many others) by threatening to block Hormuz, even if selectively. 3/3
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Hasan T. Alhasan حسن الحسن
Assuming Trump prefers a face-saving exit over war, it is unlikely he'll prioritise the Gulf states' security concerns including Iran's missiles, UAVs or support for regional militia networks which were always intractable issues anyway. 2/3
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Hasan T. Alhasan حسن الحسن
Realistically at this stage, the Gulf states can at best hope to avoid a bad outcome where Trump concedes too much - e.g. withdrawal of US forces, lifting of sanctions, etc. - in return for nuclear concessions and return to normalcy in Hormuz. 1/3 reuters.com/business/energ…
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