郝给力

all you really need for a massive bull run is a more punitive global tax regime. censorship. any domiciled asset (Real estate, stocks, bonds) can be subject to wealth taxes or unrealized capital gains taxes - both which are likely to be implemented on a 3-5 year time frame, globally. crypto is a non domiciled asset that's decently liquid. it's far superior than keeping funds in countries that don't comply with reporting requirements the fact it's even legal is insane the timeframe on the "tax bull run" - should be relatively soon. it's economically dependent. to see it you'll need 1] an abrupt deceleration in the economy (likely in next 6-12 months, and indeed may already be here) 2] monetary easing (this month) 3] cost of living being structurally so high that it incentivizes politicians to ramp spending to make things "affordable" 4] resulting in deteriorating finances that pressure on the long end of the curve. you need to see 2s 30s above 100 on a sustained basis once these are in place, all of which I view as pretty likely, there will be a face melting bull market the likes of which hasn't been seen since 2016-2017. people will be desperately liquidating domiciled assets to buy non domiciled assets as a simple expected value calculation. Not to mention all the money which is parked in real estate due to outright crime/ money laundering. Which is going to be especially vulnerable in a new regime where assets are taxed AI is just the story for how the system becomes economically sustainable in the long run. it's obvious nobody wants to use Dapps. And it's obvious that the block reward is decreasing without corresponding declines in fees. Crypto AI needs to work, because it's the security model / structural underpinning of a vast offshore global economic network. The value of such a network is immense, because without it - the global rich will find trillions confiscated to fund social programs they have no intention of funding.

Former U.S. President Trump recently gave a speech at the U.S. Bitcoin Summit, sharing his views on Bitcoin. Bitcoin and Web3 have already gained the attention and development of countries around the world, and Hong Kong is also actively becoming a hub to promote technological and financial innovation. I have the following perspectives: 1. Bitcoin and Web3 are important milestones in the development of globalization. Blockchain technology has solved many innovations in finance and real-world applications, and we should encourage global development together, as this is in line with the application development of blockchain technology. 2. Regarding Bitcoin becoming an official financial reserve for a country or region, I think this is worth considering. The global acceptance of Bitcoin is constantly increasing, and Bitcoin is seen by the public as "digital gold" in the context of its technology, so in the future, it is indeed possible to research and consider including Bitcoin in strategic financial reserves, as long as it is compliant. 3. Hong Kong must accelerate the development of the Web3 ecosystem. Now Hong Kong is at the forefront of the region in terms of compliant regulation and industry development, and I believe the HKSAR government will open the market in a gradual, progressive and responsible manner. At the same time, Web3 represents technological and application innovation, so Hong Kong should further build an ecosystem to attract globally competitive talent and capital, public chains and exchanges, enterprises and projects, etc. to the city, in order to foster the technological development of the industry. I will discuss the feasibility and opportunities of including Bitcoin in financial reserves with different stakeholders in Hong Kong, and will report the situation to everyone in a timely manner. ——————————- 特朗普早前在美國比特幣峰會發表演講，分享了他對比特幣的看法。比特幣和Web3已經受全球各國關注及發展，香港也積極成為推動科技和金融創新的地方，我有以下看法： 1. 比特幣和Web3是全球化發展的重要節點。區塊鏈的技術解決了不少金融和實際應用的創新，我們應該鼓勵全球共同發展，這才符合區塊鏈技術發展的應用。 2. 針對比特幣成為國家或地區的官方財政儲備，我認為可以考慮。現時全球對於比特幣的認受性日益增加，而比特幣在技術的背景下被公眾認為是「數碼黃金」，所以未來的確可以研究和考慮在合規情況下把比特幣納入戰略財政儲備。 3. 香港必須加速Web3生態發展。現在香港在合規監管和行業發展在地區處於領先階段，我相信特區政府會負責任地循序漸進式開放市場。同時，Web3是代表科技及技術創新，香港應該進一步建設生態圈，把全球具競爭力的人才與資金、公鏈與交易所、企業與項目等生態吸引到港，培育行業技術發展。 我將會與不同持份者在香港討論把比特幣納入財政儲備的可行性和機會，並適時和大家報告情況。

I thought it was obvious to people, but evidently not, so I'll give an extremely detailed breakdown of why both Trump's speech and its associated price action are ridiculously bullish: Leading into the speech, there were billions of dollars of short term speculative bitcoin buys and calls that were opened for the sole purpose of attempting the catch a 10%+ move in the event that the rumor was true that Trump would be "buying a million Bitcoin". Midway through the speech when it seemed less apparent that he would be saying this, many of these speculators started closing and BTC reached a low of $66.5K before the speech had even finished. If he had ended the speech right then and there, BTC easily would have sold off to $65k or lower, which is likely the price most speculators first started heavily bidding before the event. The thing that's noteworthy is that the conference frontrunners did not get what they wanted in the end (buying a million Bitcoin etc). Their actual targets can be seen from options activity, where the most heavy volume is centered around August 2nd calls with $70k strike prices. Meaning that since the speech, there has been hundreds of millions of dollars of sell pressure from low timeframe frontrunners closing their buys after not getting a black swan candle. For example, this Bybit trader closed $175 million of longs in a 1 hour period about 8 hours after the event: So to make it clear- without the existence of frontrunners / short term speculators, BTC likely would have been trading at around $64k going into the speech. The fact that the majority have now closed and we're trading at $68k implies that we actually are trading much higher now, with these positions having swapped to longer term investors who have bought hundreds of millions of dollars of BTC post event. And this isn't surprising at all, because everything about the event was objectively extremely bullish. The 45th president and favored runner announced the the US would have a literal "strategic national Bitcoin stockpile"- a level of public acceptance unheard of in the history of crypto. The shift in political climate is massive, let alone the fact that billions of US owned Bitcoin wouldn't be sold and more would be stockpiled in the future from seizures. Even the announcement of the removal of Gensler alone would be enough to pump BTC multiple percent in an isolated context, not to mention Senator Lummis introducing a Bitcoin buying bill immediately afterward. And even without Trump having guaranteed odds of winning, this speech sets an almost mandatory precedent for democrats as well. With nearly 100 million Americans who hold crypto in some form, democrats are likely forced to introduce crypto friendly policy as well, lest they lose millions of votes from those who don't want their investments to go down. When you read fast moving content on crypto, it's often written by day traders who are favoring short term movements. Many talked about today's event being "sell the news" because with the existence of many short term buys to be closed, there was in fact selling and a moderate price drop that occurred on the speech. But this has no relation to the long term bullish implications of the event, and it's misleading / uninformed to believe that one can directly infer bullish/bearish directly from price alone.

Trump: > “Bitcoin probably overtakes gold” > “I will fire Gary Gensler” > “Never sell your bitcoin” > “Bitcoiners saw inflation before anyone else” > “Danger to the dollar comes from Washington not Bitcoin” > “U.S. to create a strategic BTC stockpile”

卖光! 7个巨大警告信号预示市场已到顶；

heh