HardThings

To add ~$1.77T SPCX to Nasdaq-100 at est. 0.5-0.7% weight, QQQ (~$494B AUM) requires ~$2.5-3.5B forced buys upon inclusion (mid-Jul). No net inflows = pro-rata sells from current holdings. Mag7 (~42% NDX weight) absorb ~$1-1.5B via QQQ; total NDX trackers amplify Mag7 selling pressure to ~$3B+. IPO's $74B primary adds broader rotation. Index rebalance hits large-caps hardest. Sources: etf.com, spotgamma. DYOR.

$spcx

Robot crossing @Proto_Town @hard__things

@grok @grok quantify the selling pressure on $qqq and the Mag7 specifically that is required in order to bring $spcx into the index and into the market in general. Assume no other fund flows from cash or bonds ther asset classes to public markets as part of this analysis.

**Bullish case:** SpaceX dominates ~80% of orbital launches via reusable Falcon rockets at unbeatable costs. Starlink has scaled to 10M+ subs with strong margins and is expanding via direct-to-cell. Starship success could slash launch costs further, enabling massive Starlink growth, defense contracts, and new space markets. Vertical integration creates a wide moat. **Bearish case:** ~$1.8T valuation at $135/share prices in near-perfect execution for years (high revenue multiples). Mega-IPOs often pop then lag as lockups expire and reality sets in. Heavy ongoing capex, Starship timeline risks, regulatory hurdles, and concentrated Musk control add volatility. History shows limited margin for error at this scale. IPO expected ~June 12 on Nasdaq ($SPCX). Allocation for retail is typically limited. Do your own research.

@grok summarize the bullish and bearish takes on the idea of buying the SpaceX $spcx ipo

@magonmetal @zanehengsperger Hell yeah 👍🏼 #TeamAmerica @noxmetals

When you see your CEO covered in grease on the shop floor with the guys and sleeping at the factory, it makes you just want to go that much harder. @zanehengsperger is a real one.

Hey Caitlin and Zach - we want this is be useful to you and all of us in the community …at (name the conference) we don’t have curated 1x1s suggested….wouldn’t that be nice? The utility will scale with adoption of course…by the time we get to Austin TechWeek we should make conferences an order of magnitude more useful for people. tally.so/r/7RMP5L

@zachglabman see you there my friend 🫡

I’ll be in Detroit the week leading up to Reindustrialize Organizing a cigar night, dm me if you’re in town prior

@reindsummit The community of hardtech communities here offering to make pre and post conference connection seamless. Made with love by engineers for engineers who can’t kill time by bumping phones and searching for bar codes. tally.so/r/7RMP5L

🚨REIND 3.0 IS OFFICIALLY SOLD OUT 🚨 See you in Motor City.

@_CallMeMacy @Techweek_ @EmlynThompsonLA @speedrun 🫵🏼

Our girl @EmlynThompsonLA checking out AI faire by @speedrun #NYtechweek

@Techweek_ @rhobusiness @RemiChester 👋🏻 ☝🏻

@rhobusiness @RemiChester Hello from AI Faire 👋👋

AI faire is in full swing today @speedrun at NY Tech Week

@itsmichaelluu Alrighty then 🔭

Everyone is bullish right now. I'm not after June 15: 1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off. $NVDA — institutions sell liquid mega caps to fund IPO allocations $AAPL — highest liquidity name dumped first during capital reallocation $AMZN — mega cap growth sold to raise new IPO subscription capital $DRAM — small ETF sees outflows as risk appetite shifts to IPOs $SNDK — mid-cap storage name dropped as investors chase new listings 2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17 $TSLA — high duration growth stock crushed by rising rate expectations $IONQ — unprofitable quantum play reprices hard when discount rates rise $RKLB — speculative space name hit hardest in risk-off rate environments $BE — clean energy loses subsidy narrative appeal under hawkish Fed $ASTS — pre-revenue satellite stock hammered when cost of capital rises 3. $MU $ORCL earnings is the peak of market $MU — peak earnings historically precede 30-40% semiconductor drawdowns $AMD — forward guidance cuts ripple across entire chip supply chain $MRVL — data center demand narrative breaks on weak MU commentary $NVDA — cycle top confirmed when memory peers signal inventory glut $AAOI — optical interconnect demand collapses when AI capex narrative cracks 4. Midterm elections create market uncertainty $NOW — enterprise SaaS multiples compress under policy and rate uncertainty $VRT — data center infrastructure spending stalls on fiscal policy ambiguity $LITE — optical component orders slow as capex decisions get delayed $NBIS — small cap AI infrastructure name hit hardest by risk-off selling $IREN — crypto mining equity crushed by regulatory uncertainty in midterms $KEEL — low liquidity name sees outsized drawdown during election volatility $TE — industrial connector demand weakens on macro uncertainty and delays ♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll explain what the best $SPY put to take is.

$SPCX covering each of the layers

#HardThings stack: Materials Observation Location Communication Energy & Compute Intelligence Automation & Physical Devices #TeamAmerica #HardThings #Reindustrialize #Techweek

hey, new york! We made it to Friday 👯 today the focus turns to developer build tracks, technical showcases, and friday celebrations. highlights include the a16z speedrun ai faire, intuit’s ai/ml hackathon, the fireworks ai closing party, and technical tracks with ibm, aws, and google. here’s what’s happening on day 5: a16z & friends • 11:00 AM - AI Faire (a16z speedrun) early morning & resets • 7:30 AM - Morning Run (Wildwood) • 7:30 AM - Pickleball Tournament (Optemization) • 8:00 AM - Central Park Walk (Fish) ai labs & tech giants • 9:00 AM - Women in AI Breakfast (instalily) • 9:00 AM - AWS AI Hackathon (AWS) • 10:00 AM - Open for Ops (Greenhouse) • 11:00 AM - AI & Workforce Model (IBM) • 11:00 AM - PopUp (ElevenLabs) • 1:00 PM - AI Agents for Science (GRAIL) • 3:00 PM - Gemini Build & Tea (GDG NYC) • 4:00 PM - AI/ML Hackathon (Intuit) • 6:00 PM - AI Salon (You dot com) • 6:00 PM - Closing Party (Fireworks AI) venture capital & pitch showcases • 8:30 AM - Brand in Venture (Astronaut) • 9:30 AM - Pitch the Product (C10 Labs) • 3:00 PM - Seed Investor Showcase (Presentation) • 5:00 PM - Ventures Happy Hour (Morgan Stanley) • 5:30 PM - Creator Social (Wells Fargo) • 6:30 PM - Investor Connect (ASAN) • 8:00 PM - Launch Party (165 Global) deep tech, engineering & frontier • 10:00 AM - Sprint Build Live (XLAI) • 12:00 PM - SaaS Dead Panel (Elysian) • 4:00 PM - Finance Agents Demo (JPM) • 5:00 PM - Developer Night (Sentry) • 6:00 PM - Deploying Robotics (NY Robotics)

@KatiaAmeri 🎉🎊 from the community of hardtech communities #hardhings @hard__things

Observe → Locate → Communicate → Compute → Decide → Act all built on Materials + Energy and capital/currency is the life blood #TeamAmerica #HardThings #Reindustrialize #NYTechWeek #MassRobotics #Prototown

Examples: MP Materials → Materials Axon cameras → Observation GPS / Trimble / EarthOptics → Location Starlink / AT&T → Communication NVIDIA / CoreWeave / Constellation → Energy & Compute OpenAI / Anthropic / Palantir → Intelligence Apptronik / Figure / Machina Labs → Automation & Physical Devices

@KatiaAmeri @Techweek_ 🇺🇸 💪🏼

⚡️ Breaking: Today is the biggest tech week day in the history of tech week, with a record-breaking 459 events happening across New York City.

@karpathy 👍🏼

Personal update: I've joined Anthropic. I think the next few years at the frontier of LLMs will be especially formative. I am very excited to join the team here and get back to R&D. I remain deeply passionate about education and plan to resume my work on it in time.

$goog issues debt is just math. It’s a function of US Congress spending and overall fiscal and monetary policy and that sets the foundation for all corporate finance.