Harumar

$BTC Bitcoin Currently the most likely scenario is to range a bit here till 2026 to kill entirely the daily downtrend and eventually to pump to 98K-103K marking a major top at these levels between the 12th and 18th of January. The bottom should be either in or mostly swept at 80K. This pump if happens should represent a nice opportunity to derisk and protect capital as we are already in the crypto autumn scenario and even though the bull run and the super cycle are still in play, bullish trend on HTF and ATH are extremely unlikely for the next 6-12 months now when the uptrend is not active anymore on the weekly and biweekly timeframes. On the daily you can see how the downtrend is wearing off as CS has entred the candles. The best timing clarity comes from the biweekly timeframe where you can see how CS keeps respecting the candles with perfect accuracy on each specific date. That's the reason why for the last two months ~92K was such a strong resistance. Based on this timing model (past candles at CS acting as resistance): - $91,351 is resistance till the 21st of December - $89,164 is resistance between the 22nd of December and the 4th of January. - the same resistance is elevated to $96,168 between the 5th and 18th of January which makes it the most likely period to attack higher prices like the obvious resistance of 98K (and probably a wick to the higher one at 103K). As this is a 2W timeframes wicks in the resistance are not uncommon and significant in terms of price but it's very hard to close and hold above the resistance. That's why for the next 2.5 weeks it will be very hard to start a rally above 89K. Which gives time for the daily chart to range around and "kill" the thick bearish kumo by SSB going down and SSA going up. That's why if the bottom indeed is in the most likely scenario for the rest of the year is chop or very slight pushes to the upside which end up being rejected. Zooming in further in this period which we take from the 2W timeframe, using the weekly cycles, you can see 15 (Kihon Suchi 17-2) weeks for a potential cycle high from ATH between the 12th and 18th of January which makes this week the perfect candidate for this major top scenario. It's important to understand that while 103K and 98K are both key levels (98.4K and 103.4K to be precise), 98K is the SSB resistance at CS on the 3D which is very rarely touched during a downtrend and if it is normally it's very short-lived. So 103K should be significantly harder to come than 98K and if it comes it should be a pretty quick wick. If the daily local bottom at 85K doesn't hold the next HTF levels are the weekly SSB at around 80K and biweekly SSA currently at around 77K and that is certainly possible. But it seems like too many people are bearish and expecting 7 handle which makes this scenario less likely along with the daily chart losing bearish momentum.

$BTC Full analysis, plan and why it's not worth to be overly bearish, nor overly bullish either Local lows (75.3k) are unsafe, but I don't expect a deep bear market. Good morning. As you all know, my bullish bias established in the 80-85k range, where I expected the range to reach 95k and especially 112k, has just been invalidated. It held 11 weeks, we got a 20% move, got 95k move. From it, had a few wins (8), but also 2 losses I took myself (and 3 suggested trades), so let's count it as 3. Two losses defly from being too confident in 112k from the 80-85k range. Still confident in that level, but not from a trading perspective worth mentioning. So 3 losses, 8 wins certainly not ideal and below my standards/usual record, I made some clear mistakes as well as no readiness for unclear weekend-macro events etc. I certainly expected this bias to hold for longer and price going higher, but ah well. About my PnL throughout this range, it started out really well, of course as many know, but then ended up giving a large amount of it back unfortunately. Also wish I sold a lot more of my spot positions at 125k, as you know only posted to sell a tiny amount at 125k, same for $ETH at 5k. And of course, the first compounds of spot at 84k we aimed to sell at 112k, I also still hold and are below entry (for now). Plan next During times like this, draw boarding needs to be heavier as plan didn't work out. So I'm exactly sharing here what my plan is next, what I will do with my positions (action = key), and what type of trades (long or short) I am looking for as well as where, giving a deep summary and comments on thought process (which is key). As you know, I like to be thorough, one line doesn't define a trade, only a thorough system does especially now after taking some losses. And only the thorough reader gets access to my full plan. Top to bottom On big drawboarding sessions, always going from top to bottom (high timeframe then to lower timeframe). On the very high cyclical timeframe, I already expressed how, if my bias would fail and we close below 81k (not yet done but let's expect it for now), it's going somewhat lower, but it's not going to be a deep bear market. I drew the next purple POI (as per usual, purple weekly POI = similar style to every weekly low I called in the past) where I expect price to at least put in a serious countertrend rally from. To 112k? I'll get to that in later posts, not relevant right now. But it will be a "bottom" worth buying long timeframe on local confirmations The purple POI is quite a way below us but it indeed is not a classic -80% bear market, only 50% off the all time high. Another reason why I wasn't all too bearish high timeframe as it wasn't as important. I'm still wrong of course but as long as longs are exited, it's all fine. This worst case (but now turning likely) case of scenario is what I quietly once thought about would be the worst if I was wrong and we topped 125k, so here it is, the devils verdict I didn't but any weight on. I don't guarantee it yet, like I said, it's not entirely clear where I think the market will go next, so very much an if this, then that type of post here, with a worst case scenario (purple) in mind, but key to have for our long term (spot BTC, alts on confirmation only) thoughts. Moving down a timeframe (H6/H12, where my edge is focused and where I trade actively), We have weekend lows, as well as favourable cyclical timing for lower (cycle not done yet, more on that later). To our disadvantage unfortunately, execution was bad on that , but level worked very well as the one pivot deciding which way the 80-85k value area would break, the value area is still the same so I still have it on the chart. We also still have the 90.8k key level we pointed out which still held itself very strongly. To our disadvantage unfortunately, execution was bad on that as you know, but level worked very well as the one pivot deciding which way the 80-85k value area would break, the value area is still the same so I still have it on the chart. My actions So, actions follow naturally from plan here, giving both spot and trade actions Positional actions (spot multi-day/weekly timeframe) Since my bullish bias is invalidated, I am naturally no longer actively looking for longs. But also because I don't expect a deep bear market, I am not selling any spot here, I am in 80% in here, avg entry 34k, which used to be 21.5k (I'm sure many remember this post), but due to the recent ads at 84k 11 weeks ago, has gone up of course.. That's still a comfy entry, if you have a similar entry (I assume the minority I only had about 5k followers or so back at our $BTC 21.5k call. So I can already hear you: "what if I only bought 84k spot and I didn't have any before?" In that case, if you are heavily allocated, I would try to sell some (half) right now and especially getting closer to 90.8k (gradual but aggressive selling) I don't think selling all makes sense, given my expectations of not receiving much worse than a 50% drawdown at worst, and 84k already being down 30% from ath, are still decent entries. But it's good to keep a large portion open for the purple below to correct overall entry and position better for the next bull run. Swing trade actions (futures) Per last $BTC post, no longer exposed in perps, and bullish bias invalidated. I am not overly bearish as is clear from the chart, but shifted neutral. That means looking for a range for me to establish that neutral range and get back to trading it as well. Again not entirely clear where the range will form yet. But happy to trade it as we go. Not from the long side for now, but only from the short side, as I indeed see weekend lows get cleared and they also are defined weak on the TPO. But I'm not shorting from right here, rather closer to 90.8k (our key pivot/reclaim) for better RR as well as closing CME gap first i.e. 84k, only then targeting weekend lows. What if we go full moon (after taking weekend lows)? It's always possible, and doing so before hitting purple is of course also possible. But I don't see it likely at all before hitting weekend lows first, and even after, we very likely clear out the Mar-May lows first, and that already puts us close to purple, which should be deemed a magnet on proximity for demand and spread manipulation reasons. If it does happen though, I will gladly sell spot at 112k, the still existing magnet, but then expect a large downswing which I will look to short for a large move down. So in short, only looking for shorts at the moment. $BTC trends (down in this case) can extend, there still is money there, so that's what I look to grab, whilst keeping in mind high timeframe the bottom is likely far closer than many think (still going somewhat against the sentiment of this cycle playing out like 2022 and this range leading us all the way to 30k). Don't think so, likely bottoming much higher, but not yet and closer to the middle of the year. Trade entries will be shared live as always (which is key), and I always look to confirm with local order flow and will comment on it. Summary;TLDR In short, BTC broke my bullish bias, which I didn't deem likely, but here it is. This means I am not bullish for a while. I am not overly bearish either high timeframe as just expressed as I don't see lower than 60k, which isn't worth being bearish for, can't make much from selling spot in full and buying back lower, that's too risky. Instead just looking to swing trade, with taking a short if we hit CME close first, targeting weekend lows. If weekend lows are hit first, I will not be looking to long, at least not with heavy confirmation first. Going full moon is also possible right after clearing weekend lows, but I don't see that likely at all here after bullish bias invalidation. That is my plan for now, plus actions. Backed by price action, range theory, cyclical analysis, liquidity arrangement and my own core edge. So all-in-all, not too bad to hold spot through, which is why I am holding it. Key is to get in the right trades, and up the win rate again from the recent 8/11 wins (=72%) without forcing it. Final disclaimers I never guarantee 100% win rate. But I do always aim making (very good) money if risk managed well. I do know it's joyful going all in because you found me not missing for a long period on trades in a recent time right after you found me such as some dm's. But do risk manage, a good start is taking the same size on every trade. Yes, some of those dm's did proceed of people being liquidated because of my last 2/3 trades. But then I asked what size they took and it was 4 times higher than the wins I posted as they gained confidence in my streak. Not logical as most trades were exited before even hitting -1R and not held in long drawdown. Always same size (scaled to timeframe is the healthiest check. Enjoy the analysis, plan and comments on risk management.

$BTC Bitcoin Currently the most likely scenario is to range a bit here till 2026 to kill entirely the daily downtrend and eventually to pump to 98K-103K marking a major top at these levels between the 12th and 18th of January. The bottom should be either in or mostly swept at 80K. This pump if happens should represent a nice opportunity to derisk and protect capital as we are already in the crypto autumn scenario and even though the bull run and the super cycle are still in play, bullish trend on HTF and ATH are extremely unlikely for the next 6-12 months now when the uptrend is not active anymore on the weekly and biweekly timeframes. On the daily you can see how the downtrend is wearing off as CS has entred the candles. The best timing clarity comes from the biweekly timeframe where you can see how CS keeps respecting the candles with perfect accuracy on each specific date. That's the reason why for the last two months ~92K was such a strong resistance. Based on this timing model (past candles at CS acting as resistance): - $91,351 is resistance till the 21st of December - $89,164 is resistance between the 22nd of December and the 4th of January. - the same resistance is elevated to $96,168 between the 5th and 18th of January which makes it the most likely period to attack higher prices like the obvious resistance of 98K (and probably a wick to the higher one at 103K). As this is a 2W timeframes wicks in the resistance are not uncommon and significant in terms of price but it's very hard to close and hold above the resistance. That's why for the next 2.5 weeks it will be very hard to start a rally above 89K. Which gives time for the daily chart to range around and "kill" the thick bearish kumo by SSB going down and SSA going up. That's why if the bottom indeed is in the most likely scenario for the rest of the year is chop or very slight pushes to the upside which end up being rejected. Zooming in further in this period which we take from the 2W timeframe, using the weekly cycles, you can see 15 (Kihon Suchi 17-2) weeks for a potential cycle high from ATH between the 12th and 18th of January which makes this week the perfect candidate for this major top scenario. It's important to understand that while 103K and 98K are both key levels (98.4K and 103.4K to be precise), 98K is the SSB resistance at CS on the 3D which is very rarely touched during a downtrend and if it is normally it's very short-lived. So 103K should be significantly harder to come than 98K and if it comes it should be a pretty quick wick. If the daily local bottom at 85K doesn't hold the next HTF levels are the weekly SSB at around 80K and biweekly SSA currently at around 77K and that is certainly possible. But it seems like too many people are bearish and expecting 7 handle which makes this scenario less likely along with the daily chart losing bearish momentum.

Everyone's loading YES on Ranger sale hitting $60M+... I just dropped $2K on NO shares on Polymarket Apparently, the entire CT is now confident that the pattern in MetaDao will repeat itself and whales will start making huge deposits in the last hour Stats at this moment: >2.2M$ total commited >+40k$ commitments in hour >3 days 7 hours left If deposits continue at the same rate, total commitments will be $5 million It seems that everyone is absolutely confident in large investments at the end of the sale But if the odds on YES are already high, what motivation could whales have to manipulate the sale? Wouldn't it be easier to buy NO positions and not enter the sale?