Chill Guy Fawks

@Arkasiraee @KobeissiLetter Only strong will survive

Just 35 days ago, - Russian & Iranian oil was sanctioned - Iran was not in control of the Strait of Hormuz - The Strait of Hormuz saw 120 large crude vessels passing each day - US had fully operational airbases across the Gulf - F-35 was marketed as an untouchable stealth platform - Crude oil at $60 per barrel - Inflation was declining - Global trade routes were stable - US missile stockpiles were intact and undisrupted - No large-scale drawdown of strategic reserves underway As of Today, - Russia is generating $620 million per day in energy revenues - Iran is generating $185 million per day despite war conditions in Chinese Yen - The Strait of Hormuz is effectively choked, with 250–260 vessels stranded carrying 400–450 million barrels - US airbases across the Middle East have been repeatedly targeted, with key radar and defense systems degraded - The F-35’s stealth narrative has taken a direct hit after battlefield damage from Iranian air defense - Crude oil has surged to $105–110 per barrel, with an imminent supply shock building - Over $100 billion burned by the US in offensive and defensive operations in just over a month - 2,400 Patriot and 700+ THAAD interceptors fired, heavily depleting regional stockpiles - 1,100 Tomahawk missiles used, a significant share of total inventory - Global inflation is reversing course and set to accelerate sharply, already seen in Asian Economies - The world is heading toward a synchronized economic slowdown - What Will Happen Next (Already in Motion):- The last pre-war crude shipments are about to land within days A real-time supply shock follows immediately after 8–10 million barrels per day effectively disrupted from global flows 14 smaller Asian economies face complete shutdown within a week at $110+ oil Strategic reserves are being drained rapidly, buying time, not solving the problem Middle Eastern economies are entering a historic economic slowdown, with losses exceeding $200+ billion Trade flows, logistics, and industrial output are beginning to fracture End State Trajectory:- Supply shock → Demand destruction → Trade contraction Trade contraction → Lower dollar velocity → Liquidity tightening Liquidity tightening → US economy sliding toward recession As a result of these “unimaginable wins,” inflation is not contained, it is coming back with force, and this time through energy, supply chains, and global trade disruption all at once.

BREAKING: President Trump tells Iran “open the f***** Strait of Hormuz, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell.” Trump declares Tuesday as “power plant and bridge day.”

@Realtwwrn @NASA No one landed in the moon 60 years ago an broadcasted the whole trip live haha

Why orbit twice around the earth then go to the moon just to go around it? Seems like a big waste to me. I mean if your going to the moon then go to the moon. Land on it. Do something. Then come home having g actually accomplished something. Rather then waste billion in American tax dollars to proove we can do what we did what we did what 57 years ago. In a desperate bid to remain relevant and a practical use of tax payer money. Seriously if this is all were doing who do we need to talk to about getting a refund?

It’s not a straight shot to the far side of the Moon! 🌕 Over approximately 10 days, the Artemis II astronauts will orbit Earth twice before looping around the far side of the Moon in a figure eight and returning home.

@MarchandSurgery @NASA lol you actually serious ???

@NASA I'm pretty sure the earth and moon will be moving over the 10 days. I'm hoping the NASA scientists built that into their plan. This model where the moon stays still and waits for us doesn't seem very realistic.

@BitcoinAIGuy $mara still alive lmao

Holy shit. Just got off a major unexpected call with one of the largest bitcoin whales in Asia. Selling all of my $IREN and full porting $MARA. I’ll explain later.

@CKCapitalxx $NBIS got a bigger dilution scheme lmao

I used to be bullish on $IREN. But the RR on $NBIS is just so much better. Good thesis. Former Bitcoin miner pivoting to AI infrastructure. Microsoft deal. Power capacity scaling. The story made sense. Then they filed a $6 billion ATM. To put that in context. $IREN’s market cap at the time was roughly $12 billion. They filed an at-the-market equity program worth half their entire market cap. That means at any moment, on any given day, they can drip new shares into the open market until they have raised $6 billion in fresh equity. They already burned through a $1 billion ATM. 66 million shares sold. Then immediately replaced it with one six times bigger. Jim Chanos flagged something that should concern every holder. When a company files an equity offering of this magnitude, any material positive news would legally need to be disclosed at the same time. They filed $6 billion in dilution capacity and said nothing about the quarter they are currently in. They could not even reaffirm their $500 million digital revenue ARR guidance. Goldman Sachs cut EPS estimates for FY2026 through FY2028 the same day the filing dropped. EPS estimates for FY2027 have fallen 90% since the Microsoft deal was announced. That is not what good capital allocation looks like. Now look at $NBIS. Same AI infrastructure theme. Same hyperscaler demand. Completely different capital structure. $NBIS does not need to dilute you to build. They closed a $4.34 billion convertible note offering at non-dilutive terms. Nvidia invested $2 billion strategically. Meta committed $27 billion. Microsoft committed $19.4 billion. The customers are funding the build. $IREN is selling shares to build and hope the revenue follows. $NBIS has the revenue contracted before the infrastructure is even finished. $25 billion market cap. $27 billion Meta deal alone. $7-9 billion ARR guided by end of 2026. Revenue projected to hit $31.6 billion by 2029. Same sector. Same opportunity. One company is diluting holders to chase it. The other has the three most powerful tech companies on earth writing the checks. I rotated a while back. I have no regrets.

@aleabitoreddit Have you seen the rest of the market lmao or just watching iren with zero holdings

It still baffles me how people are still “Buying the Dip” on $IREN. Amid their $6,000,0000,000 ATM, diluted and sold into the open market. Thinking that it will increase their share price. While $NBIS was able to differentiate themselves and secure more hyperscaler deals + $NVDA backing. $IREN GW raw asset moat they had two years ago is now almost gone. It’s hard to see the stock appreciating much in value when $6,000,000,000 of structural dilution works against you in every rally. Better to wait after current shareholders get diluted first before going long.

@JasonL_Capital $zeta $iren $hgraf $infq $nbis $aaoi

If you're under 35 this correction is a gift. I'm looking to buy... $NVDA below $170, AI compute demand sold out through 2027 $AMZN below $200, AWS is the backbone of every AI company $IREN below $30, 100% renewable data centers pivoting to AI cloud $HOOD below $65, revenue compounding and retail trading isn't slowing $MP below $45, only integrated rare earth mine and processor in the US $SYNA below $65, edge AI chips for IoT and automotive $SOFI below $15, CEO keeps buying millions in open market $ONDS below $9, drone manufacturing + defense budget accelerating $ZETA below $15, AI-powered marketing platform growing 60%+ YoY $OSS below $7, rugged edge AI compute for defense and autonomous systems $UUUU below $18, uranium + rare earths in one ticker

Video for $HG $HGRAF education purposes that I made with Google NotebookLM. Its far from a perfect illustration but its pretty good so I thought I would share for feedback.

NEW: You can now build AI Agents that monitor the market, manage your cash, and execute your trades. The Agentic Brokerage has arrived.

$IREN: Sitting Through Tough Times I am holding onto my entire IREN position. I'm in all common shares besides a tiny sized call position for fun which the tiny call position is now very no-fun. Right now is a tough time for IREN because a deal announcement would most likely entail an convertible but it would probably be prudent to wait for a higher price. Once macro recovers, it makes sense to delay deal until stock is in 50s-60s and have a conversion premium. IREN's role is lining up power, GPU deliveries and financing. With HBM excess from OpenAI over-ordering, it seems like GPU deliveries will be better for H2 2026 and we just need market recovery so IREN can get favorable financing. All eyes on macro. It's not a win for anyone. Trump's f-it plan is to bomb the energy infrastructure but that's a lose-lose situation. A anti-fragile system needs to be stress tested before underlying issues grow. IRGC publically stated their goal was death to the US so the war was bound to happen sooner or later. The war happening sooner makes this a SVB event, whereas a war coming later when Iran is even stronger would be a 2008 event. We are lucky to have the friendly Muslims in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and the Persian and Israeli people support the US. A tough time for all IREN and many X stock portfolios. I did not prepare specifically for this but holding common shares as I have always re-iterated goes a long way. Just sharing my thoughts, not financial advice.

$IREN: Putting things into perspective There is really no other way to put it. $IREN's recent price action has been severely disappointing. The stock is now down over 20% YTD and nearly 60% from its all time highs. I honestly feel for people who first started investing in $IREN over the past ~6 months. $IREN hasn’t been the easiest stock to hold in recent months. There is no doubt about that. These days, I’m getting messages left and right from friends and family who are positioned in the stock. Most of them are baffled by the price action and are trying to make sense of it, and I think many investors find themselves in a similar situation. In this post, I’ll lay out my perspective on the matter, providing you with some valuable context on the current situation. First of all, it’s clear that much of the current sell-off over the past couple of weeks can be attributed to the macro backdrop. Virtually every stock is getting hit hard by a situation outside of management’s control. Clearly, however, some stocks are getting hit harder, and $IREN finds itself in that bucket. I see many investors attributing this volatility to the fact that $IREN's market cap is relatively small, but I wouldn’t say that’s the primary reason. After all, the company’s market cap has increased tenfold over the past year, and the stock still pretty much trades the same, with lots of volatility in both directions. Just consider that $TSLA is a company with a trillion dollar market cap, yet it still trades like many small and mid caps. The real reason for heightened volatility in some stocks is the gap between diverging opinions around the investment story, not just the market cap itself. Public companies that have a wide range of differing views will naturally trade with more volatility than something that is more established and has a stronger consensus among market participants. A great case study is Apple. Nowadays, $AAPL's price action is far less extreme than it was in the early 2000s. What changed is that, back then, Apple was still far less established than it is today, and its long-term positioning was much less clear to the market. The company’s moat was nowhere near as obvious as it is now. Many market participants feared fierce competition from the Windows ecosystem, with some even arguing for the inevitable commoditization of the PC itself. Then, on the other end of the spectrum, you had $AAPL bulls who saw the company as much more than just a PC vendor after the first iPod launch in 2001 and later the release of the iPhone in 2007. I’m sure some bulls, who were ultimately proven right, argued for 50 to 100x upside in the stock. So, on the one hand, you had investors arguing for deteriorating financials and eventual bankruptcy, while on the other you had investors calling for a 100x in the stock. These vastly different ranges of opinion created heightened investor uncertainty, i.e., fear, while at the same time fueling greed among investors looking for the next multibagger. Greed and fear are the most prevalent emotions in financial markets. More of both always creates more volatility. Nowadays, Apple is widely viewed as a slower growing but robust company with very predictable earnings and cash flows, so the spread of consensus is much narrower. There are not many investors who believe $AAPL will pull 10x move any time soon, but at the same time, pretty much no one thinks the company could go bankrupt in the coming years. $IREN, on the other hand, is still early in its growth story and is operating in a rapidly evolving market that is not yet widely understood. The volatile price action is largely a reflection of how uncertain the broader investor base still is about the company, with many investors not having done the necessary work to truly understand the business from the inside out. The only real way to stomach this kind of price action is to have very high conviction in both the company and the investment thesis, and that conviction can only be built through proper due diligence. The main takeaway here is hyper-growth stocks such as $IREN tend to suffer from stronger sell offs than most other companies, often even for factors unrelated to the company’s underlying fundamentals. As a reminder, $AAPL crashed by over 60% from its all time highs in the years following a very successful iPhone release because of unrelated macro events. The company even grew its revenue and earnings during the 2008 recession, yet the stock kept falling. Just let that sink in... In retrospect, buying $AAPL at $3 during that time, or simply holding the stock through the crash, was the most obvious play. But that required investors to see through the macro noise and focus purely on the company’s fundamentals. Just imagine how many good sounding bear arguments were flying around in the midst of what, at the time, seemed like a complete collapse of the financial system. Today, companies like $IREN are getting punished hard by broader market turbulence, even when the factors driving that volatility have little impact on current business operations or runway. Nothing has changed for $IREN. The market is still severely compute constrained, and $IREN is one of the few players with the technical expertise and resources to help fill that void. Even if the economy were to deteriorate as a result of rising oil prices, demand for AI is one of the last things I would expect to wane. Just like demand for the iPhone in 2008 only accelerated despite a horrible macro backdrop. I’d recommend everyone revisit their thesis for why they invested in $IREN in the first place. If nothing has changed, then there is no reason to panic. While my thesis on the stock has materially evolved over the past years, the core essence of the story has not changed one bit and, if anything, has only gotten stronger: $IREN is one of the best positioned companies for what is shaping up to be the most disruptive technological paradigm shift of our lifetimes, the rise of AI. As a final note, be aware of stock pumpers hopping from one theme to another. $IREN is not a trade. At least it is not for me. Would you have traded out of $AAPL at $3?

@crux_capital_ Def bullish on $poet They just need some damn orders

Understanding CPO is critical for photonics investors $LITE $POET $COHR $AAOI $MRVL Tomorrow we will dive in to: - Scale up Vs Scale Out CPO - What the revenue implications are for each - What CPO means for copper + pluggables - Which companies are positioned the best But first, you need to read this article. Understanding fundamentally what CPO is and why it exists is the foundation we need for making informed investments. Go read it! @damnang2

@midascabal I stay bullish

STOP LISTENING TO IDIOTS They told you to buy the dip on $IREN - it dips further. They told you to buy the dip on $ONDS - it dips further. They told you to buy the dip on $CIFR - it dips further. They are BAD investors. Wait for the bottom. I’ll announce when I’m bullish again. Many will regret not following me sooner.

Bernstein expects $IREN to do 4x in the next 12 months. Some FinX investors, think that $160+ is highly likely. Personally, all I know is that $IREN is an easy $100B company and has the highest potential upside in 2026. All-In has never been easy in life, let alone this short term unpredictable market.

@codewithimanshu Comment dzzzz nutzzzz

+773% Profit. I Didn't Place a Single Trade. Claude Did Everything. While you're losing sleep staring at candles, this bot ran overnight and printed 773%. I've made the exact step-by-step guide to build this Claude Trading Engine from scratch. Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment "Trade" 2. Like and Retweet this post. 3. Follow me @codewithimanshu (so i can DM you) You need: Claude + laptop + 1 hour/day. You backtested your strategy once on a green week and thought you figured it out. Then the market flipped and wiped your account. Classic. This guy ran Monte Carlo simulations, stress-tested across thousands of scenarios, and used out-of-sample data to make sure the strategy actually works, not just on paper. The difference between you and him: > He runs thousands of bots across multiple coins > You run one gut-feeling trade and pray > He stress-tests for manipulation and drawdowns > You panic sell at the first red candle > His bot optimizes strategies while he sleeps > You set an alarm for London open and still miss it Your discipline is just gambling with extra steps. His bot doesn't have emotions, doesn't overtrade, doesn't revenge trade. Full video tutorial attached. Keep doing what you're doing or watch this once and never manually trade again. You Must Follow me @codewithimanshu, so i can send you DM.

@heynavtoor yet it can’t even make money in the market lol

🚨BREAKING: The man who won the Nobel Prize for inventing modern AI just said he's "more worried than ever." Geoffrey Hinton quit Google. Warned Congress. Told the world AI changes everything faster than anyone expects. But buried in his 40 years of research is a reasoning framework 99.9% of people have never seen. Here are 9 Claude prompts built on Hinton's neural architecture that turn Claude from a chatbot into a deep reasoning engine:

Hope you enjoy this video we recorded it yesterday… talking graphene and the deep research investing I’m addicted to

You can become a millionaire this year. All it takes is a few proper swing trades. Last year, I called out: $ONDS at $0.83 (ran 1560%) $OPEN at $0.58 (ran 1580%) $IREN at $6.30 (ran 1100%) $CIFR at $3.01 (ran 650%) $RKLB at $19.51 (ran 375%) And many more 2-10x trades. Now, I'm focused on space and defense. Stocks like $SATL $PL $FLY $AMPX $ONDS (and a few more) have extremely high upside still. I'll share updates here on all the tickers mentioned above, as well as new gems that could run 10x. If you weren't following me last year and missed out on any of those trades, don't miss out again.

@BitcoinAIGuy Expecting 5$ next week, hope every else sells their bags 🙏🙏 it’s all going to zero!!! Selll sell sell 🍾🍾🍾🍾🍾 So I can buy 😂😂😂😂😂

Reply if you’re holding strong 💼 💎 🙌