Hayder حيدر

In 2023, Iraqi feminist & human rights defender Yanar Mohammed wrote for Chatham House on the lived realities of Iraqi women and the cost of defending their rights. Her recent assassination is a stark reminder of the dangers faced by those who confront injustice and challenge entrenched power. Read Yanar's essay: chathamhouse.org/2023/03/iraq-2…

I am a US citizen & Surgeon who took care of the Boston Maraton Bombing victims in 2013. I paid for 7 years to own a small apartment in downtown #Beirut for my 3 kids to enjoy summers there. Today, #Israel reduced my dream home to rubble, with american weapons, paid by my taxes.

War is killing or injuring the equivalent of one classroom of children every day in Lebanon. Israeli strikes have killed 111 children and wounded more than 330 in the last two weeks -- nearly 30 kids every day. reuters.com/world/middle-e…

I have been deliberately silent on social media for a while. I use all my social media platforms to promote education & make dreams come true for young minds. I rarely post anything about family or politics. This morning, Israel demolished the building I have an apartment in. It took 22 years of my work here & 20 years of my wife’s work to own this apartment. This madness has to stop.

Below from a recent interview @CH_MENAP panel, I said US would begin striking militia leaders/leadership targets and that is what is happening right now.

📢 Film screening: 'The President’s Cake' Join us for a screening & panel discussion with @MonaChalabi, Hasan Hadi (Director, 'The President’s Cake'), and @RenadMansour. 📅 9 April 🕐 16.30 GMT 📍 @ChathamHouse Register now! Places are limited ⤵️ chathamhouse.org/events/all/sta…

Many believed the old rules held: that Iraqi Iran-aligned actors would stay out of the war. But from my January conversations with PMF leaders, it was clear a wider conflict would draw some in. That threshold has now been crossed & the most dangerous scenario is unfolding in Iraq

#Iraq may be the single biggest economic casualty of the Hormuz crisis. While Arab Gulf producers can reroute some exports (#SaudiArabia, #UAE), rely on storage and deep pockets (#Kuwait, #Qatar), Iraq’s oil system was built around one reality: Basra exports through the Strait of Hormuz. And those exports are now gone. Iraqis have their political elite to blame. 🧵 (1) Before the war, Iraq produced ~4.4mn b/d and exported about 3.4mn b/d from its southern terminals. When shipping through Hormuz stopped, Iraqi exports collapsed within 2–3 days, according to a video statement by the oil minister on Sunday. He said, Iraq today is producing only ~1.5–1.6mn b/d, mostly to run refineries and power plants. My assessment is even lower ~1.2mn b/d. (2) In other words: Iraq has shut in roughly 3mn b/d of production. That is not just a supply shock for the market. It is a fiscal shock for Iraq itself. Oil revenues account for ~90% of government income. (3) Baghdad is now scrambling for alternatives. The only serious route left is the Kirkuk–Turkey pipeline to Ceyhan, which runs through the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region. Baghdad says it could quickly export ~300k b/d from federal fields, plus ~200k b/d from Kurdish fields. But the pipeline is idle. (4) Enter now the political crisis. Baghdad says the KRG refused to restart exports, accusing Erbil of attaching to the negotiations conditions unrelated to oil. The Kurdish government fired back hours later. This is a two-decade old dispute. Their response is extraordinary. (5) The KRG says exports cannot resume because: • oil production in Kurdistan has halted after militia attacks on energy fields • Baghdad imposed a “suffocating economic blockade” on Erbil • the same militias attacking Kurdish energy infrastructure are funded and armed from Baghdad (6) This is not a logistics dispute. It is a full political breakdown between Baghdad and Erbil in the middle of the worst energy crisis Iraq has faced in decades. And all of this is unfolding while Iran-aligned militias are launching drones and missiles across Iraqi territory, including inside Kurdistan. (7) So the situation today is unprecedented: • Iraq cannot export its oil from the south because of Iran • the northern export route is politically blocked • production is being shut down across major fields • Iran-aligned militias are attacking energy infrastructure inside the country (8 The irony is brutal and Baghdad might’ve overplayed its hand in previous months dragging its feet to re-open the Ceyhan pipeline, while delaying budgetary allocations to the KRG and salary payments to civil servants. Iraq is paying the economic cost of a war it did not start and cannot control, while armed factions inside the country have dragged it into. (9) If exports remain halted, Iraq will face a simple reality: A state whose budget depends almost entirely on oil… without oil revenue. This is a recipe for serious internal upheaval. #oott

Iran could come to resemble Iraq after the 1991 Gulf war: a country militarily defeated and economically debilitated yet still governed by a reconstituted form of the same regime. Read @SanamVakil’s (@CH_MENAP) latest analysis on Iran for the @FT. ft.com/content/bf9b57…

Thanks to @wolfblitzer for having me on @CNN to discuss Mojtaba Khamenei's whereabouts and the conflicting US and Israeli war timelines as well as Iran's endgame for this war. @CH_MENAP

Join us tomorrow for a discussion on how Iraq has been, and continue to be, affected by the US and Israel’s war on Iran and the evolving regional conflict.

Military superiority hasn’t eliminated axis of resistance groups. Years of US-Israeli decapitation strikes (since 2020) have fragmented, not dismantled them. Now in survival mode: some entrench domestically, others fight - further destabilising the region. My latest👇

'US–Israel war on Iran: What’s happening inside Iran?' Speakers will assess the Iranian regime’s response to date and explore potential social, political, military and security trajectories for the country. 📅 11 March 🕐 11.30 GMT 📍 Zoom chathamhouse.org/events/all/sta…

Mojtaba Khamenei is now officially the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. The main achievement of Donald Trump's campaign so far has been to replace Khamenei with Khamenei...

'Will the US-Israel war on Iran destabilise Iraq?' This #IraqInitiative webinar will examine how cross-border movements and fragile political structures raise the stakes for Iraq’s stability. 📅 12 March 🕐 13.00 GMT 📍 Zoom chathamhouse.org/events/all/sta…

It is naive to think that escalating conflict in Iran will lead to anything good, writes Spain’s prime minister economist.com/by-invitation/…

#Iran’s population is stuck between a government that can’t provide security and basic services, uses sheer brutality to crush dissent and doesn’t build shelters and outside powers indiscriminately bombing civilian areas, who think this is a game, with no plan for what’s next.

Iraqi feminist activist Yanar Mohammed was shot and killed outside her home in Baghdad by unidentified gunmen the day before Iraqi Women’s Day. For the blog, @ALKTaif & @HayderSH remember Yanar blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2026/03/05…

#Israel orders mass evacuation of entire neighborhoods in southern suburbs of #Beirut-home to at least 1/2 million people. This comes after mass evacuation for 1/3 of south #Lebanon yesterday. A shift from evacuating buildings/targeted attacks. Total panic across the city.