Heidi Hartmann

New Twitter handle from @HeidiatIWPR (now gone) to @HeidiIHartmann. See the middle I in there. After retiring as President @IWPResearch I worked part-time to complete 2 projects, appointment ended March 31. I remain with @urbaninstitute and American University Economics @AU_PGAE

With apologies, a long tweet, about the likely macroeconomic outcomes of Liberation Day. Tariffs can be imposed for understandable if not necessarily good reasons: Protect a sector, right or wrong. Extract rents from foreign producers if there are rents to be extracted. Sure, if there is retaliation, everybody will be worse off, but it maybe worth taking the risk. Across the board tariffs, which sounds like what we are going to get, are however the worse possible tariffs. They are bad for the country that imposes them, even without retaliation. Standard scenario: The initial effect of higher tariffs may look good: Lower imports. Higher demand for domestic goods. Smaller trade deficit. But, with the smaller deficits, and the higher interest rates needed to keep demand under control, appreciation of the dollar (say), less competitive exports. Until trade deficit is back to square one. So: Useless? Worse. Costly reallocation from exports to import competing sectors. Misallocation. And for the revenues from tariffs: They are there, but in the end, they are paid mostly by US consumers. A relevant twist, which changes the standard scenario: The enormous uncertainty about Trumps’s tariff policy: Are the tariffs transactional or permanent? Will they remain/increase/decrease? In that environment, if I am a firm, what do I do? Build a plant in Mexico or in the US, in Vietnam or in China, etc. I do not know, and so I wait. We all wait. Investment comes down, aggregate demand falls, and the effect is a recession. Now the trade balance improves, for two reasons. The direct effect of tariffs, and lower activity means lower imports. As the Fed tries to maintain activity, lower interest rates and a lower dollar mean more exports. Looks great. Claim of success on the trade front (if you can make people forget the recession) But only for a while. Over time, as the economy recovers, you go back to the first scenario. The depreciation eventually turns into an appreciation, activity recovers, the trade deficit returns to square one Overall result: a recession, no gain. A general mess. We shall see how it all turns out.

@nytimesarts @AndrewRusseth Catch this!

The Filipino American artist Pacita Abad is having her first retrospective at MoMA as the mainstream art world finally catches up to her work. “You will regret missing it,” our critic says. nyti.ms/3ymKA31

For those who haven’t seen this. A generous write-up. But it is nice to know my photo is hanging next to Janet Yellen’s at the Yale Economics Department. @FemMajority @elliesmeal In case you missed this Ellie. Your Expo!

Please check out this book by my colleague from IAFFE, a terrific scholar.

@gberik Me too. Stupid on admin part as well as sad.

Remarkable aggressiveness! Not in the spirit of Donna Shalala’s letter to the cancellation of Nancy Fraser’s visiting professorship in Germany. And regrettably unfitting New School’s history as a refuge, protecting free speech and a bastion of “progressive” traditions.

@hshierholz Beautiful and ingenious! Congrats!

My partner is growing watermelons on a trellis and they kept falling off before they got ripe so he...swaddled them.

@AFLCIO @WSpriggs a tremendous loss. Here's some initial thoughts.

This “but” is like saying “Save the whales!” then eating one

@IWPResearch @socialinsurance @SSWorks Thank you Cindy Hounsell and @WISERwomen

Women’s need for caregiving credits in Social Security, work I did with Jeff Hayes @IWPResearch. See also @socialinsurance @SSWorks

Disappointed that President Biden is not supporting Washington DC home rule. We need to become a state with 2 Senators and improve democracy.

NEW @NBCNews: A new set of federal proposals could help domestic violence victims protect their phone data — a key way to help them break free from abusers, experts say. ☎️ "Things like this really are a life and death issue," @epenzeymoog told me. nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news…

Did you know that income over $160,000/year is NOT subject to social security payroll taxes? That needs to change. Remove the cap. Make everyone pay their fair share.

What do these two portraits have in common?

So happy to be at the White House for the nomination of the amazing, powerful, progressive ⁦@JulieSuCA⁩ to be the next Labor Secretary of the United States of America.

The 6888th Central Postal Directory Battalion, or "Six Triple Eight," was the only all-Black, all-woman U.S. unit to serve overseas in World War II. Those who served in it, including some veterans over the age of 100, are finally getting due recognition. smithsonianmag.com/history/how-al…

Last week they claimed insurmountable transportation problems. This week no excuse so far. As @rkuttnerwrites once said, you don’t expect to return to the garage to pick up your car and be told they can’t fix it. @nytopinion @nytimes

Are others having trouble getting their papers delivered by the New York Times in Washington DC esp. on Fridays? I feel like I am one of a dying breed who likes to read the newsprint over tea in the morning and they wish I didn’t. Second Friday in a row. @nytimes @nytopinion

@amyburnettcross Can’t read all that! With what, insecticide?

Random occupations nerd fact: In 1973, the U.S. Army had a job called "Laundry, Bath and Impregnation Specialist." (MOS 57E) I imagine this was a very popular option for men soldiers until they find out that 57E impregnates... clothing?!

@haroldpollack @DogVander Too funny!

Soneone help me—The wife is making us watch a foodie cooking movie. Bradley Cooper as some sort of boozed-out head-tripping genius-chef. @DogVander and I offering constructive-criticism running commentary…