Levi Henze

👀 0.17*0.2=3.4% of the world’s LNG capacity is offline for 3-5 YEARS. That’s a permanent dent in LNG demand confidence, and probably a 5-10% upwards structural price shock. @ira_joseph

@HannsKoenig @maurerchr @MarcoWuensch Very good points in there. Thanks for your thoughts! 🙏

@HenzeTimon @maurerchr @MarcoWuensch Now climate action seems to be less of a priority, so maybe it could happen now. But I’d warn against expecting too much from it: some more domestic production is somewhat good for security of supply, but our gas prices would realistically stay coupled to LNG prices. / fin

I’d bin the general fracking bans across Europe yesterday because they never made sense ecologically and from an externality perspective (at least that’s my understanding). But: E.g. Poland never banned it, had ample incentive to invest and large resources. /.

@infornomics Boring western pop harmony

Honestly I don't find it terribly exotic I general most folk stuff even medieval is still not as weird as algorithmic music imo

Amazing. Lithium ion batteries were once good for maybe 1,000-2,000 full discharge cycles. Now we're reaching multi-decade lifespans.

@NewLeftEViews Well it’s not, but appreciated

@HenzeTimon This is helpful thanks friendo

@NewLeftEViews I will, let me get back to you!

@HenzeTimon Remind me of your disagreement? With Brett and with critics of marginal pricing?

Brett Christophers going mainstream politics.. I’m sure this will all be very helpful in decarbonizing the energy system?

@atrembath Yes, I saw that. This was in direct reference to that, I retweeted yours earlier

Paul Ehrlich is not anyone’s hero (except the climate scientist quoted most frequently by mainstream media 😬)

Not my hero, not anyone’s

Maybe @maurerchr @HannsKoenig or @MarcoWuensch know more, or know someone who does?

JRC has a good overview of the resource situation. The rest I know from a geologist and a few reads here and there. So: I’m no expert at all. /. joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2…

qatar is about to start cutting helium exports... helium is used for chip production... the iran war is about to turn the ai bubble into the hindenburg

@maurerchr Yes. Though to be fair, it is a little less intuitive than Twinkies on the shelf

@HenzeTimon Unfortunately, people are uncomfortable with basic laws of supply and demand. Hard to overcome without making things worse

Well, that's a new angle. Until now, the questionable, yet nonetheless vehemently put forward argument has been that due to marginal pricing RES earned excessive profits despite low variable cost. Now they are disadvantaged by the very same concept. Would love to understand this.

I once had a member of Congress ask me: „What can we do to deny Iran a role in the region?“ energypolicy.columbia.edu/iran-conflict-…

The fertilizer crisis brewing because of Hormuz is going to be felt predominantly by people in some of the poorest nations on earth. Americans will only barely notice. Why? 1. The US, China, Europe, and other rich regions apply so much fertilizer per acre today that crop yields already show diminishing returns from fertilizer. You can cut back fertilizer application by double digit percentages and see quite small yield impacts. 2. Only maybe 10% of what Americans spend on food pays for what's coming off the farm. Farm commodity price surges get highly diluted before they reach American pocket books. 3. Poorer nations food budgets are much closer to actual farm commodity prices. Percentage changes in crops affect poor nation residents much more directly. 4. Poor nation farmers can afford much less fertilizer already, and are at the usage levels of steep gains, where any fertilizer reduction directly impacts crop yields. They're the ones most likely to cut back. Those poor nations are the ones to see crop yields decline and food spending soar. Rich country residents might see some prices tick up. Poor countries may see hunger and food insecurity directly rise. DOD and the US intelligence community have long warned that risks to food, water, and climate are threat multipliers. They increase the risk of state failure of Least Developed Countries. That in turn creates the conditions for civil war and breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism, along with migration. These things are very hard to predict. We might get lucky. Second order effects may be muted. Or we may see unexpected and unpleasant ripple effects from the developing world.