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Hey Jon
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Hey Jon
@HeyJon12
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United States Katılım Mart 2021
78 Takip Edilen2.2K Takipçiler
@MamaTelefo59979 Which war and which consequences. I probably do, but you’re going to need to be more specific.
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Right now the #natgas market believes we only have to survive winter, not that production needs to rise/demand needs to fall over the next 9 months.
The sickening price increases will come when that shift occurs, it happened in April of 2022. Feels like a similar timeline in ‘26
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-35 BCF vs 5 year avg on the warm week, cool cool cool. Getting closer to ‘22 levels of “I’m not sure what the bear case is here”.
I assume it includes a blowtorch final 6 weeks of winter, production surging to 114, CC3 magically not starting up, and further Golden Pass delays?
A warm April isn’t saving us from -200 BCF deficit, it’s not even going to offset new LNG demand. This is the result of counting on warm winters for sufficient gas in storage, what now? #natgas
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It’s a continuous process right up until March closes as prompt month. The month always closes with two business days left because SameDay and NextDay aren’t included in BalMo.
Feb 25th will be the last day BalMo trades and at that point it will just be Feb 27-28. By then, BalMo and March will be very close to one another (barring crazy weather for Feb 27/28). But crazy weather would mean BalMo trading who knows how high, spot hit $27+ this weekend.
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February gas is now $6.30. We can’t handle one more serious cold wave. If it happens, everyone will be talking about the #natgas storage problem by March (or who Russia invaded?).
Lot of people counting on a blowtorch Feb or Golden Pass delays, not great.
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@PaulSaladino7 Looks like Feb can buy a lot more contract in the roll over for once
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Normal seasonal spread on Feb to March is about 65 cents, for those who care about such things.
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What happens is either Feb prices collapse as it becomes BalMo and rolls towards close or March prices skyrocket.
If we are really about to drawdown 320 BCF against 5 yr avg thru Feb 13, you can guess how I’m voting. Still too early in winter to say the L-word, but it’s getting late early. #natgas
Josh Young@JoshYoung
Everyone is focused on the February contract for natural gas, which has skyrocketed due to the coming storm. But spring and summer nat gas prices are much weaker. What happens when the front contract rolls to March? Look below the line!
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@CelsiusEnergyFM So what’s the significance of this? Natty trading like it’s free
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Per today’s early-cycle pipeline data, LNG feedgas demand will rise to 19.3 BCF/d, up +4.4 BCF/d vs last year. If it holds up through tonight’s finalized numbers, it would be a new record high. #Natgas
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Love him or hate him I prefer not to bet against him. Trump has been meticulous at executing his agenda. Right now he wants low energy costs and lower rates, low inflation. Good luck to those who are betting against him.
Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston
Ok, so, this likely represents most of the barrels that have built up during the blockade, both one ships and in overflowing domestic storage—relieving this will alleviate the building pressure to shut-in upstream production. But it’s also… booty. 🏴☠️
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@HeyJon12 Torchmas is pretty well locked in, but celebrating the end of winter in Dec is evil
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#Natgas storage will be at its lowest point relative to 10 yr storage since end of ‘22, as of this Friday, eclipsing the previous low set (very very briefly) in Feb.
But all the Merry Torchmas ppl assure me it’s going to be fine, nothing to see here.
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@HeyJon12 I don’t like it, they are angering the weather gods. Even as a joke, wish they would chill.
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As the current wave of arctic air reaches its maximum extent, #natgas res/com heating demand is soaring to nearly 60 BCF/day, putting today’s daily storage withdrawal on track to top -30 BCF/day as of mid-afternoon, a new seasonal high.
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@WallStreetMav Uh….. lobbyist have a few words that you’ll never hear and get there way
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EBT Food Stamps should be limited to the type of food a family would receive at the local food bank.
Food banks typically have a box filled with the basics. Canned goods, pasta, and rice, as well as fresh foods such as produce, dairy, and meat.
If you want soda, lobster, junk food or luxury food items, use your own money for that.
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