Hiraal Institute

We analyzed 8,000+ security incidents to assess the counter-Al-Shabaab offensive. Since May 2022, Al-Shabaab INCREASED attacks by 70%—from 68/month to 116/month.  The offensive didn't degrade the group. It adapted.  Urban terrorism declined. Rural insurgency surged. Thread 👇

Ramadan Kareem

Thread🧵 by @HiraalInstitute on #twitterthread twitter-thread.com/t/202302852608…

We have been using this regularly updated map internally for years and now decided to release it to the public. It has: Main Supply Routes (MSRs), main Al-Shabab towns, strongholds, contested areas, government towns under siege, govt and AS pockets. google.com/maps/d/edit?mi…

The bottom line: Al-Shabaab adapted, not collapsed. Phase Two never came. Political wars replaced counter-terrorism. All territorial gains reversed. Somalia's leaders chose politics over survival. Find the full report here: hiraalinstitute.org/somalia-securi…

Meanwhile, Puntland shows what's possible.Operation Hilaac against ISIS: 364 operations, 700+ militants killed, 98% of Cal Miskad recaptured. No FGS involvement. Independent. Focused on the actual threat.

We analyzed 8,000+ security incidents to assess the counter-Al-Shabaab offensive. Since May 2022, Al-Shabaab INCREASED attacks by 70%—from 68/month to 116/month.  The offensive didn't degrade the group. It adapted.  Urban terrorism declined. Rural insurgency surged. Thread 👇

Somalia security report (2020–2025): Analysis of 8,000+ incidents shows a major reversal. After early gains in 2022, Al-Shabaab has regained all lost territory in 2025 amid political rifts that stalled the counter-terrorism campaign. Report: hiraalinstitute.org/somalia-securi…

Abwan has again threatened armed confrontation with Puntland if counter-terror ops continue in Al-Madow, openly positioning North East State as Al-Shabab’s protector in Somalia’s strategic mountains. thesomalidigest.com/al-shabab-shie…

FGS privately tells partners it supports Puntland’s fight against ISIS, but Puntland officials refute this—saying all aid comes solely from local resources. Puntland alleges Mogadishu is misleading international partners to secure funding for itself. thesomalidigest.com/fgs-misleads-i…

We are nearing the initial objectives of this operation. Capturing Timirshe is a game-changer, and securing the road to Ballidhidin cuts off a critical ISIS supply route. They will likely fight back hard, but we’re prepared to strike first and decisively thesomalidigest.com/puntland-force…

Puntland is fighting, alone, the Islamic State group, which has fielded an international force from at least two continents. Our current estimate is that they have 900-1200 fighters from at least 15 countries in the mountains of Bari region. thesomalidigest.com/is-somalias-dh…

Total killed in Al-Shabab's anti CCTV campaign which started almost a year ago is close to 100 dead, millions in property destroyed. Al-Shabab is fighting for its influence and power in Mogadishu, imposing higher costs to force citizens to comply. thesomalidigest.com/al-shabab-kill…

Puntland has declared war on both Al-Shabab and the Islamic State in Somalia, and will move against them in both Al-Madow and Al-Miskad mountains, respectively. Note: We're doing this without half of Africa sending us tens of thousands of troops. thesomalidigest.com/puntland-presi…

President Deni’s declaration of war on Al-Shabab and IS-Somalia comes as Puntland grapples with the complex challenges of building a stable, secure, and prosperous future in the face of multiple threats and adversities. thesomalidigest.com/puntland-presi…

More than 165 members of the PSF militias have refused orders to attack the government and joined its ranks (pictured, today). Meanwhile today, the PSF militia has sent a letter to airlines, threatening them and their passengers with attacks. thesomalidigest.com/psf-threatens-…

This is incredible- excellent work

Announcing this map, "Somalia Areas of AS Control and Operations". We will continuously update it to reflect changes on the ground. google.com/maps/d/viewer?…