Holdar.D
30 posts

Holdar.D
@Holdar_D
Holdar.D 关注科技、未来与人类可能性。 用内容记录思考,持续学习与输出。
Katılım Eylül 2025
67 Takip Edilen20 Takipçiler

我真的替大多数股民感到悲哀。
很多人以为自己是在投资,其实只是走进了一场早已设计好规则的游戏。金融市场从来不是慈善机构,而是资本收割资本的战场。普通投资者没有信息优势、没有资金优势、没有定价权,却总以为凭几条消息、几根K线就能战胜整个市场。
更可悲的是,真正收割散户的,从来不只是市场,还有人性。
涨了,互相炫耀;跌了,互相嘲讽;亏了,怪别人唱空;踏空了,骂别人唱多。大家把所有精力都浪费在情绪对立和立场之争上,却很少有人反思:自己为什么总是在追涨杀跌?为什么总是在恐惧中割肉、贪婪中接盘?
资本最喜欢看到的,就是散户互相攻击、互相消耗,因为当所有人都在争论的时候,真正赚钱的人,早已悄悄完成了布局。
最大的圈套,从来不是行情,而是让你相信自己的情绪就是判断,让你把敌人当成同样弱小的普通人,而不是那些真正掌握规则的人。
可怜,可悲,更可叹。
中文

@aleabitoreddit There is also a virtual universe that swallows the starry sky, the intelligent life form Babata. I used to think it was far away from the novel, but now it looks very close.
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Honestly this decade from 2020-2030 might be the most goated in human history.
- Scaling massive reusable rockets for orbital compute with $RKLB to $SPCX.
- on the cusp of ASI and recursive learning with Anthropic and OpenAI
- Backflipping Boston Dynamics and Unitree humanoids to replace the human workforce
- Star Wars laser beams from $EOS.ASX to AI DC lasers like $LITE.
- Waymo and $TSLA self driving cars everywhere in urban cities
- and we get industry Quantum commercialization end of decade
This is kinda crazy to be an investor in this timeframe. Feels like every movie from the Star Wars Death Star to Skynet is coming to life.
What’s next?
English

Yup, Schaeffler $SHA0 is the ideal example for automotive players.
~ €7.47B MC auto player.
- but also working with 45 humanoid players (extremely insane number, they do have €5.14b debt, EV is higher)
- covers bearings, gearboxes, sensors/ECUs, actuators, power electronics.
-ests. They can be roughly 50% BOM of a humanoid
- targeting 10% market share of that.
But only projecting a few hundred million revenue by 2030 (extremely sandbagged) if we’re using Elon’s projections for the market.
Then’s theres auto players like Nabtesco (6268) for joints. And then Sanhua in China for $TSLA Optimus.
Many of them are trade at lower valuations from drag from auto.
But humanoids + AI Auto (TSM chairman cited this as a growth vector) should be a good catalyst past 2027 for automotive players.
IMO there just needs to be a ChatGPT/Anthropic breakout downstream leader first for humanoids.
That brings up the entire ecosystem that has robotics exposure.
But as of now it’s probably like 1% of many of their overall revenue figures, and markets are focusing on immediate upside from bottlenecks like memory or MLCC.
I’m sure we’ll see some random Toto-HBM type surprise as different humanoid architecture evolve.



IEatBarrel@shuangqiu96
@aleabitoreddit Do you guys think auto supply chain and robotics supply chain will merge?
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@XIANTIANDING 天娱数科的基本面处于“收入高增长、现金流改善、盈利待验证”的阶段。
投资逻辑是在押注其AI营销和AI应用分发业务能否从当前接近盈亏平衡走向持续盈利,从而完成估值从概念驱动到业绩驱动的切换。
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