Sabitlenmiş Tweet
HomelessCobra86
799 posts
HomelessCobra86
@Homelesscobra86
Advanced econometrics + economics MSc junior. Showing gains monthly/quarterly from my only brokerage account.
Katılım Mart 2013
71 Takip Edilen176 Takipçiler
I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company.
Not later this year.
Since I’m not sure how:
- $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation
- packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation.
- laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions.
And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer.
There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either.
So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream.
Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions.
Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post.
Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE.
DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.
larma@larmatrade
@aleabitoreddit $SIVE is ripping today too and still have along way to go, do you still support your 2/3B MC for this year ?
English
Im calling the next $AEHR , its definitely $ASYS
200m mcap? 26% growth? No debt. Just turned profitable.
This is the definition of a moonshot setup
English
@InvestingAddict Yup rule nr 1, never lose money. Volatility drag is a phenomenon most retail are not even aware of
English
The S&P 500 is less than 3% off its all time highs yet a bunch of you have stock portfolios down 50%.
There’s a lesson in that.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: The S&P 500 is now set to open above 6,800, trading just 2.9% away from a new record high. The index has added +$1.6 TRILLION today.
English
@convexititties Not sure why he sold everything at the absolute bottom and then got angry at people questioning that, very weird dude
English
@insane_analyst Can you explain your SiTime conviction? Not seeing many talk about it, I really like the recent acquisition they did
English
Semis continue to rip and I continue to add $SMTC down here. Bargain prices.
English
@LogicalThesis Buy when there is blood in the streets
Just bull vs bear here, I guess
English
@Homelesscobra66 1) the last couple weeks I have been outperforming bc of trying to time it
2) im not so sure the bounce would be anything more than a counter trend rally
3) if its a real rally, i can join a little late and make up for it
4) right on cue:
Hunterbrook@hntrbrkmedia
Breaking: ballistic missile launched from Yemen towards southern Israel, intercepted in flight. The Houthis throw their hat into the ongoing Iran War.
English
I love these discussions because this is where TRUE price discovery happens.
wating for @insane_analyst to enter the 'arena' lol.
$SIVE TAM between
$1.2Bn and $2.5B for 2028.
(penetrated according to them). (Just in DFB)
Current market cap at ~$270M USD.
If they trade at a P/S of 1 in 2028 and reach half the lower limit of their expected TAM they will be trading at a market cap double their current.
No position yet. I am not an expert in lasers. I am just excited with this volatility there may be an opportunity.
I think if SIVERs can get to $100m market cap (like fall 50% from here) I might take a position regardless. Hopefully at that point I know more.
They say their 2028 % penetration is 30% in this slide. I think that's too generous given the competition. would love to hear what @StormDirac thinks.
Zephyr@zephyr_z9
Bro, DFB array architectures are much easier to develop Lumentum showcased 250 mW/ch (16 channel array) ELSFP at OFC 26, Furukawa Electric showcased a 100 mW/ch (16 channel array) ELSFP in 2024 For the next 2-3 years high-power DFB arch will see adoption/revenue gen not DFB arrays If u are treating Sivers as a trade, then that's OK, but it's very speculative as a mid/long term bet
English
@zephyr_z9 Ex-ceo sitting and turning every argument bullish for the company is a really really bad look, I wouldnt go near that company.
English
Look, I just think that Sivers is just trading at a very high valuation
If it had a strong tech roadmap or an edge, then that valuation could be justified, but they don't
If u are trading it, then that's OK, but just be cautious when it comes to holding it as a long-term investment
POET and Ayar's future is too uncertain to talk about
As for Jabil, they generate $400M from optical transceivers ($30B total revenue), and Sivers signed a small MOU with them
Jabil mainly uses Intel for the optical engine with an integrated laser and MaxLinear for DSP
English
Eventually, you'll need to sell these too. But at least they'll be the last ones to 0 out, once there's no longer any software to utilize the chips.
stepnotonpets@stepnotonpets
This is probably your last chance to sell every company that is not manufacturing or assisting to deploy CPUs, GPUs, QPUs. Everything else is going to 0. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
English
@HoodenRobin Såna kan gå fruktansvärt retarded, men ja. De har ingen inhouse produktionskedja och ser inte hur de ska kunna massproducera demanden som marknaden prisar in
Svenska
@StormDirac En indirekt venture capital investering för 2 år sen är lika betydande som en riktad kapitalinjektion nuförtiden? Okej 😂👍
Svenska
Swedish financial media should take a closer look at how global AI/optics peers in the US are being valued vs $SIVE.
Lumentum $LITE up ~1000% in 1 year.
Now trading at ~P/S 27 — with BNP Paribas raising PT to $1040 (implying ~P/S 35).
If $SIVE were valued at the same multiple.
English
@alden_niklas Funkar för han får med hela retail, sen när rapporterna kommer blir det förmodligen blodbad. Han har ju rätt i vissa däremot så tar inte bort något cred från honom faktiskt
Svenska
Rätt kul att följa detta kontot. Talande att endast mcap verkar vara intressant. Inte en endaste multipel i sikte.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
If you're new to $AAOI: It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase. However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK. And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle... At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections: (est. Capacity * ASP Projections) Q2 2026: ~$312.1M Q4 2026: ~$1.41B Q2-2027: ~$1.53B Q4-2027: ~$1.97B If $AAOI ends up leapfrogging the $55B $LITE in revenue... $8B MC looks a little absurd for revenue growth off 30-40% margins… Re-rating potential is enormous. Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR. Is it ends up a Made in America Innolight / Eoptolink (Both $66B-$90B+ Chinese companies)? The optionality of making the entire supply chain in America is understated. $AAOI is one of my few high conviction longs aside from $SIVE and $LITE if they can deliver on projections.
Svenska
@aleabitoreddit Everyone foaming at the mouth over $AAOI topline guidance is completely missing the trap.
Revenue is just money coming in the front door. This is a low-margin box assembler bleeding cash on factory overhead and constantly diluting your equity just to survive their own "growth."
English
If you're new to $AAOI:
It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase.
However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK.
And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle...
At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections:
(est. Capacity * ASP Projections)
Q2 2026: ~$312.1M
Q4 2026: ~$1.41B
Q2-2027: ~$1.53B
Q4-2027: ~$1.97B
If $AAOI ends up leapfrogging the $55B $LITE in revenue...
$8B MC looks a little absurd for revenue growth off 30-40% margins…
Re-rating potential is enormous.
Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR.
Is it ends up a Made in America Innolight / Eoptolink (Both $66B-$90B+ Chinese companies)?
The optionality of making the entire supply chain in America is understated.
$AAOI is one of my few high conviction longs aside from $SIVE and $LITE if they can deliver on projections.
English
I love patterns, Lutnick, and being early on the tech Jensen says is the next to break loose.
English