The Hormuz Letter

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The Hormuz Letter

The Hormuz Letter

@HormuzLetter

Iranian. The Middle East through the lens of oil, markets, and money.

Katılım Aralık 2025
23 Takip Edilen6.7K Takipçiler
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for 29 days. 20% of the world's oil supply is cut off. This is now the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. And it's about to get much worse. Here's what no one is telling you. (a thread)
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Shin
Shin@hey_itsmyturn·
0719Z "Airstrikes on Mahshahr Petrochemical Complex" Officials: "No chemical contamination has been detected" Mahshahr, Khuzestan Province, #Iran
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
BREAKING: A projectile struck Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant this morning. One person killed. The fourth strike on the site since the war began. The IAEA confirmed it and Rosatom is evacuating its final staff. 50 volunteers will remain to keep the reactor running. There are 72 metric tons of nuclear fuel and 210 metric tons of spent fuel at this facility. It sits on the Persian Gulf coast. Trump threatened to strike power plants two days ago. This is a nuclear power plant.
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
Still going. C-5, C-17, and KC-135 aircraft crossing the Atlantic right now, per FlightRadar24.
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
MORE: The second wave of C-17 transports is crossing the UK and Europe toward the Middle East right now. The downed F-15E was based at RAF Lakenheath in the UK, the only European country still actively supporting US combat operations.
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
BREAKING: A massive line of US Air Force C-17 transport aircraft is currently crossing the Atlantic toward the Middle East, alongside KC-135 refueling tankers. A second wave is already over Europe heading for the eastern Mediterranean. C-17s carry troops, armored vehicles and heavy equipment. This is the largest visible airlift movement since the war began. The Doomsday Plane landed at Andrews tonight for a reason. This may be it.
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
April 6 is less than 48 hours away. Nobody is talking about what actually happens when the deadline hits. Trump's ultimatum to Iran: open the Strait of Hormuz or the power grid gets destroyed. Iran has not responded. No meeting. No deal. No backchannel. The mediation channel through Pakistan is dead. The 15-point US plan was rejected in full. The UN spent 15 days trying to pass a resolution to reopen the strait. Six drafts. Russia, China, and France stripped it of all enforcement authority. The vote was delayed again. 40 countries met Thursday. They agreed on nothing. Iran used that time to write the new rules. Its deputy foreign minister announced a joint protocol with Oman to require permits for all Hormuz transit. Not during the war. After it. So what actually happens on April 6? Trump strikes the power grid. 90 million people lose electricity. Iran retaliates on Gulf energy infrastructure. Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia all took hits this week. That was before the power grid. Oil passes $140. That is the recession threshold. Not a forecast. A price. Trump extends the deadline. Moves the goalpost. The ultimatum becomes a bluff. Every future threat to Iran, to NATO, to anyone, loses weight. Iran's permit system for Hormuz becomes the new status quo. Trump redefines the objective. He already said Wednesday the US has "no role" in Hormuz. Then said Thursday "take the oil and make a fortune." Then threatened to destroy the grid if Hormuz does not open. Three positions in 72 hours. April 6 may simply produce a fourth. Oil closed Friday at $111. Markets reopen Sunday. The $140 recession line is 26% away. Two weeks ago it was 45%. April 6 is not a deadline for Iran. It is a deadline for the price of everything.
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
@AlfredThames1 The White House had weekend events on the daily guidance that were pulled. They called a full lid with the Marine sentry still posted. That doesn’t happen when nothing was scheduled
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
BREAKING: The US Air Force E-4B “Nightwatch,” also known as the Doomsday Plane, has just landed at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington. The aircraft is the military’s airborne nuclear command post. It departed from Omaha, home of US Strategic Command. The President is at the White House with his national security team. Press conferences have been cancelled.
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Nostra, House of Gold
Nostra, House of Gold@Nostre_damus·
Significant U.S. military transportation across the Atlantic
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OSINTtechnical
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical·
The massive USAF airbridge to Europe and the Middle East continued today, with a number of C-5s, C-17s, and KC-135s flowing across the Atlantic.
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James R. Webb
James R. Webb@JamesWebb_16·
I just heard from a source very close to top of the White House that, following today’s shootdown of an F-15, an A-10, and the successful hits on multiple helicopters and other aircraft, the WH is choosing further escalation, including US troops on the ground. This would be madness. I truly hope that someone in the Pentagon or elsewhere can prevent this from happening. If anything was proven today, it’s that Iranian AD is still very capable and very intact. Any US ground operation will be heavily reliant on helicopters and other slow-moving airframes. Despite the assertions of both the Pentagon and POTUS, it is crystal clear that we have not reduced Iranian AD to the point where a ground operation is even a remotely wise decision. Let alone potentially inserting by air and then being exclusively reliant on an air corridor for things such as resupply and CASEVAC. History is replete with examples where this reliance has been disastrous. Further, the hard part would be after troops were on the objective. Our lack of manpower leaves little room for maneuver, and once static (which would be required), Americans will become a stationary target for the entire inventory of Iranian indirect fire capabilities on Iranian soil, and it is a recipe for failure. Simply put, this is not an existential war for the US's survival. It’s a war of choice that should never have happened in the first place, and POTUS should be finding a way out, rather than clumsily and recklessly sacrificing America’s finest.
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OSINTdefender
OSINTdefender@sentdefender·
The F-15E Strike Eagle shot down earlier today over Southern Iran is believed to be based out of Royal Air Force (RAF) Lakenheath in the United Kingdom, a U.S. official told NBC News, appearing to confirm earlier reports that the F-15E was assigned to the U.S. Air Force’s 494th Fighter Squadron (494th FS).
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
NEW: The downed F-15E was from the 494th Fighter Squadron based at RAF Lakenheath in the UK, per NBC. European countries have been blocking US military operations all week. Spain closed its airspace. France blocked weapons overflight. Italy refused Sigonella. The UK is the only European country still actively supporting combat operations. Its base just lost an aircraft over Iran.
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
BREAKING: An Iranian drone struck a US Army CH-47 Chinook at Camp Buehring in Kuwait, severely damaging the aircraft. The Chinook is the US military’s primary heavy-lift helicopter, used to move troops, equipment and supplies across the Gulf.
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Helicopterpilot
Helicopterpilot@milhelipilot·
@HormuzLetter It would be good to cite the sources for this information as well; otherwise, it just sounds like a fairy tale
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
BREAKING: Seven US aircraft incidents in the past 24 hours: 1. F-15E Strike Eagle downed over Iran. One crew rescued, one still missing. 2. Two HH-60W rescue helicopters hit by Iran. All crew safe. 3. A-10 Warthog crashed into the Persian Gulf. Pilot rescued. 4. A second A-10 hit, emergency landing on one engine. 5. F-16 declared emergency over Iraq. Landed safely. 6. KC-135 refueling tanker declared emergency over Israel. Landed safely. 7. Iran claims it downed another US jet near Qeshm Island yesterday. The US offered $40 billion in reinsurance today to convince commercial ships the Strait of Hormuz is safe. It cannot currently keep its own aircraft in the air over it.
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Visegrád 24
Visegrád 24@visegrad24·
BREAKING: Israeli and U.S. air forces launched massive strikes on targets of Iran’s Islamic regime in Tehran.
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The Great Martis
The Great Martis@great_martis·
Something big is about to happen.
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The Enforcer
The Enforcer@ItsTheEnforcer·
I’m hearing reports that President Trump decided to stay in Washington D.C instead of returning to Florida today — hmmm🤔
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
MORE: This is what F-16 wreckage looks like.
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The Hormuz Letter
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter·
BREAKING: Iran claims it shot down another US fighter jet tonight, per state news, Tasnim. Debris images released show what appears to be missile wreckage, not a jet engine. Iran has misidentified aircraft all day, calling this morning’s confirmed F-15E shootdown an F-35.
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