Hot Hand Theory

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Hot Hand Theory

Hot Hand Theory

@HotHandTheory

An NBA pod hosted by @GeoffRasmussen_ & @xavierjdesigns We use data + film study to analyze the game and explore ideas that challenge traditional bball wisdom

New York, NY Katılım Ağustos 2023
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Hot Hand Theory
Hot Hand Theory@HotHandTheory·
The Lakers’ offseason has been debated, but their moves make sense once you realize that Rob Pelinka was actually building the perfect ecosystem for Luka Doncic. Our new video analyzes how the Lakers built a team around Luka’s skillset. Link: youtu.be/E_3Ixvp_ynI?is…
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Hot Hand Theory
Hot Hand Theory@HotHandTheory·
@AndrewDBailey @ChrisBakerNBA Does net rating/swing really matter in this context? I’m not sure there’s a player alive who wouldn’t look bad using WOWY data when tied to Jokic. For eg, here’s the net swing of Jamal Murray, a very good player, across the last 7 seasons: With Jokic: +12.1 Without Jokic: -3.8
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Hot Hand Theory
Hot Hand Theory@HotHandTheory·
Functional spacing is a really interesting discussion. Myles Turner was a more willing+accurate 3pt shooter than Pascsl Siakam, but Siakam appeared to draw more attention. The cause of that is difficult to isolate. Turner DID create space in a way Zubac is unlikely to though. The numbers across the Pacers’ last two seasons before Tyrese Haliburton’s injury are pretty telling. Zubac is great in his own way. And Haliburton is a special/underrated creator—his pull-up shooting+deep range (if they maintain post-injury) are HUGE gravitational bends to a defense, you can’t just let him walk into those. He’ll still constantly get two at the level. And he should still be elite at anticipating coverages+processing the right passes early to create advantages. Only instead of anticipating a Turner pop it’ll be a Zubac dive to the basket drawing weak side stunts. It’ll look similar to how Luka Doncic manipulates that defender. How Zubac fares in those situations will play a huge part in determining if the Pacers offense can maintain its effectiveness with less shooting/slightly reduced space.
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Young Simba
Young Simba@the2kmessiah·
If a player shoots threes but nobody ever guards him from 3 is that really spacing?
💰@HatinggTy

@llMcbucketsll 5 out was the reason they were so good zubac can’t shoot

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Hot Hand Theory
Hot Hand Theory@HotHandTheory·
@Hoop_Dogg_ @UsherNBA I get it! He has to prove he can stay healthy and on the court against elite competition But he’s VERY good and can still get better. And perhaps more importantly, his strengths perfectly align with what you want next to Luka Doncic.
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Brett Usher
Brett Usher@UsherNBA·
name a team you think will be at least a little better than people expect
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XJ
XJ@xavierjdesigns·
Not gambling advice but I'd start fading Philly. The hype for a team that will be putting multiple players in position for them to be the worst version of themselves (rather than the best) on any given possession is unreal
Kalshi Sports@KalshiSports

JUST IN: The Philadelphia 76ers are now the favorites to win the Eastern Conference, via Kalshi: 21% — Sixers 20% — Knicks 17% — Celtics 11% — Heat 10% — Cavs 7% — Raptors 6% — Pacers 5% — Pistons 3% — Hawks

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XJ
XJ@xavierjdesigns·
Not sure if there's a more important single on/off type offensive metric than this. At the end of the day, how does the summation of everything you bring to the court (spacing, passing, gravity, etc) affect the quality of shots your team gets. Luka Jokic Steph LaMelo SGA
BBall Index@The_BBall_Index

The top 5 in Offense Impact On Shot Quality 1. Luka Doncic 2. Nikola Jokic 3. Stephen Curry 4. LaMelo Ball 5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

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will@will_nba_hater·
@xavierjdesigns @HotHandTheory There’s also big gaps in guy who shoots 38% on mostly standstill catch and shoots and a guy who has real gravity moving off the ball who may also shoot 38% but is taking 13 3PA
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Hot Hand Theory
Hot Hand Theory@HotHandTheory·
I can’t proclaim myself an expert on Adam Silver’s job as NBA commissioner on the whole but we’re about to enter a new regular season with more teams trying (and reasonably positioned) to win than I can ever remember. It could legitimately be the best NBA season of our lifetimes.
JayTakes@SportsWithJay0

Bill Simmons talking about the NBA: “The second apron that they put in is having so many ramifications for team building, player building. And they did this to basically protect the owners, so everybody could make more money. All of these things are smart financial moves. But I don’t think any of these things have made the NBA better. Because they’re making business decisions and not league decisions. Adam Silver’s job is to elevate the league and make money, has he elevated the league this decade?” Harsh words for the commish.

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Hot Hand Theory
Hot Hand Theory@HotHandTheory·
@ShaxNBA Great stuff! I particularly enjoyed: 1) the observation that understanding the best data/metrics and what they value can help guide+improve your NBA watching and film study 2) how vital role optimization is to player’s success You’re a talented writer+NBA analyst, keep at it!
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Shax
Shax@ShaxNBA·
My conclusion over the past month of analytics discourse: Too often the film matches the data and is not used in conjunction What analytics mean to me in player evaluation. Using three case studies to explain my thought process. Link: open.substack.com/pub/shaxnba/p/…
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XJ
XJ@xavierjdesigns·
Some might call this an overpay but the value of a strong rim protector/ high volume 3PT shooting big is immense. Love the move by Memphis to force GSW to make a tough decision. And I think Post is absolutely worth the deal
Shams Charania@ShamsCharania

Restricted free agent Quinten Post is signing a three-year, $30 million contract offer sheet with the Memphis Grizzlies, sources tell ESPN. The Golden State Warriors have until 11:59pm ET on Tuesday to match.

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Longtime Black Man Here
Longtime Black Man Here@groove_sdc·
@HotHandTheory Yeah optimizing Luka’s strengths while minimizing his defensive deficiencies while optimizing Reaves strengths as well is a gamble worth taking. View the moves in that light they don’t seem so random. Great analysis from you guys.
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Keşfet

@AndrewDBailey @ChrisBakerNBA @Hoop_Dogg_ @UsherNBA @xavierjdesigns @ShaxNBA @AlvinNelson07 @LFRPod