Hodan Abdulahi

@fahma0597 Amazing xog ah ayaad nala wadaagtay thanks ustadad @fahma0597

The Treasury Buyback Surge, the Sovereign Debt Spiral 🧵 1-The man who saved the US financial system in 2008 just went on Bloomberg and said: "We need an emergency break-the-glass plan. Ready to go when we hit the wall." That man is Hank Paulson. He doesn't do false alarms. One hour after he said that the Treasury did something quietly. 👇 2-The US Treasury bought back $15 BILLION of its own debt. One morning. One operation. The market begged to sell $40 billion worth. Treasury said: we'll only take $15B Still 2.7x oversubscribed. When holders are that desperate to exit something is wrong. 🔴 3-This isn't new. But the speed is terrifying. 2024: $2B/week Early 2025: $4B/week April 2026: in a single shot 7.5x in 18 months. Think about what that means. The Treasury is becoming the buyer of its own debt. That only happens when everyone else is leaving. 🚪 4-So who left? In 2015, foreign central banks bought 34 cents of every dollar of new US debt. Today: 24 cents. 10 percentage points. Hundreds of billions per year. Gone. Not rotating. Not pausing. Structurally exiting. And they're not coming back. 📉 5-The biggest exit China. Peak holdings (Nov 2013) $1.316 TRILLION Today ~$693 billion That's $623 billion sold over 13 years. 47% gone This is not a trade. This is not profit-taking. This is "we don't trust your currency as a neutral asset anymore." The 2022 Russia sanctions told every central bank on earth: your reserves can be frozen. China listened. 🧊 6-what's actually happening. The US needs to roll $36 TRILLION in debt. The buyers who used to show up automatically aren't. So the Treasury steps in and buys its own paper. But where does the money come from? The Fed. And when the Fed prints to buy bonds the dollar falls Inflation rises Capital flees Yields spike again. This loop has a name. 👇 7-The Sovereign Debt Spiral. It's not a theory. It's a mechanism. And it has played out in living memory three different times, three different ways. Let me show you. 📖 8- UK. September 2022. Liz Truss announces £45B in unfunded tax cuts on a Friday By the following Tuesday, UK 10-year gilt yields spike 100+ basis points. Pension funds across the country start getting margin calls. Collapse is hours away Bank of England does emergency bond purchases to stop it. Truss resigns 45 days later. A prime minister removed by a bond market. Not voters. Not Parliament. The bond market. 🇬🇧 9-That was the mild version. Greece, 2010–2012: Can't print euros. Yields go 5% → 38%. International bailout. Bondholders forced to take 53.5% haircuts. Real austerity. Social collapse. Argentina, ongoing Can print pesos. Printed too many. 8 pesos per dollar in 2014. 1,451 pesos per dollar today. Nine sovereign defaults. Printing your way out doesn't end the spiral. It feeds it.🌀 10-Data point. The IMF's SDR basket the 5 most important currencies on earth. 2021-China's 10-year yield was the HIGHEST. Riskiest sovereign in the basket. (+2.95%) 2026-China's 10-year yield is the LOWEST. Safest sovereign in the basket. (1.75%) US yield- 4.26%. Second riskiest. The world is pricing US fiscal risk above China's. Let that land. 11-And zoom out to the longest run chart. The long-run data provides the starkest context for the current environment. On August 15, 1971, President Nixon closed the gold window ending the Bretton Woods system under which the dollar was convertible to gold at $35 per ounce. The dollar became a pure fiat currency, backed only by the credibility of US fiscal and monetary institutions. Fifty-five years later, the arithmetic is unambiguous. Gold traded at $35/oz in 1971. By April 2026, it trades at approximately $4,800/oz. The dollar's purchasing power against gold has declined by approximately 99% from a baseline of 100% in 1971 to 0.7% today. Put differently: what cost one gold dollar in 1971 costs approximately 137 fiat dollars in 2026. This is not a gold story. It is a dollar story. The purchasing power loss against gold is simply the most legible long-run measure of monetary debasement an asset with no counterparty risk, no cash flows to discount, and a supply that increases at approximately 1.5% per year. The dollar has lost against this baseline not because gold became more valuable, but because the dollar was diluted. 12/So where did the smartest, slowest, most conservative institutional money go? Central banks the ones who set monetary policy started hoarding gold. 2020- 255 tonnes 2021- 450 tonnes 2022- 1,082 tonnes ← something changed here 2023: 1,050 tonnes 2024-1,045 tonnes 3 straight years above 1,000 tonnes. First time since the 1950s. When the people who run the system start exiting the system's assets pay attention. 🥇 13-The Rotation Where Smart Money Moved Against this backdrop, the behaviour of institutional capital in recent years is consistent with a single thesis large-scale, patient capital has been rotating out of printable assets and into unprintable ones. The Printable / Unprintable Framework The core distinction that matters in a monetary debasement environment is not risk vs. safe, or liquid vs. illiquid. It is can the government print this asset. PRINTABLE assets dollars, US Treasuries, most sovereign bonds, savings accounts can be created by government decree. Their supply is uncapped. In a fiscal dominance environment, they are the assets that absorb the dilution. UNPRINTABLE assets gold, productive land, real businesses with pricing power, physical commodities, Bitcoin cannot be created by political decision. Their supply is physically or mathematically constrained. In a monetary debasement environment, they are the stores of value that capital rotates toward. 15-What the Paulson Warning Means Hank Paulson is not a gold bug or a perma-bear. He is the man who designed TARP the most aggressive financial system intervention in US history and executed it in real time during the 2008 crisis. When he calls for a break-the-glass plan to be placed on the shelf in readiness, he is not predicting catastrophe. He is describing what prudent crisis management looks like when you have seen how fast the system can deteriorate. In 2008, the problem was bank balance sheets. Toxic mortgage assets had destroyed the equity capital of the major financial institutions. The solution TARP was to recapitalize those institutions using government borrowing. The balance sheet of the government was the solution. In 2026, the concern is different. The balance sheet of the government IS the problem. The US government carries approximately $36 trillion in debt, with annual interest expense approaching $1 trillion. The structural buyer base for that debt has declined by 10 percentage points. The dollar has lost 99% of its purchasing power against the hardest asset in history. And the man who saved the system in 2008 is calling for emergency plans. The story told by the data in this paper is not one of imminent collapse. It is a story of structural deterioration that has been underway for a decade and is now reaching an inflection point. Thank you for reading this thread. I hope you found it valuable😇👊👌

@fahma0597 Amazing ustd meel kalaa wax naga tustay

Why the economic still hasn’t being collapsed ?🤔🧐📉📈 This is the most important macro story👇 1-Look at the data and tell me this isn't 1973 all over again. • Private credit funds gating redemptions for the 1st time in history • -133K jobs in February (revised from -92K) • Oil at $110+ from the Hormuz closure • SPR almost empty • National debt: $38.6 TRILLION Every recession indicator is RED. So why hasn't the system broken yet?🤔 2-Because the Treasury still has ONE move left. And almost nobody is talking about it. The U.S. government holds 261.5 million ounces of gold in Fort Knox, West Point, and Denver. On the official books, it's valued at $42.22/oz. That's not a typo. That's the price from 1973. 3-Today gold trades at ~$4,672/oz Do the math🧮 • Book value: ~$11 BILLION • Real value: ~$1.22 TRILLION That's a $1.21 TRILLION unrealized gain sitting on the federal balance sheet doing absolutely nothing. The Treasury can revalue it overnight. With an accounting entry. No printing required. 4-That sounds like a conspiracy theory. It's not the U.S. has done it THREE TIMES already: - •1934 — FDR: $20.67 → $35 (+69%). •1972 — Nixon: $35 → $38 (+8.6%). •1973 — Nixon: $38 → $42.22 (+11.1%). 🤯2026? —Trump: $42.22 → ~$4,672 (+11,000%)?🤔 It's a tool they've used it before they'll use it again. 5-And it's not just goldbugs saying this In August 2025, the FEDERAL RESERVE itself published a working paper titled "Official Reserve Revaluations the International Experience" the Fed is literally studying the mechanics of how to do this. When has the Fed ever published research on something they're NOT thinking about? 6-Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already said the quiet part out loud We're going to monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet. He later walked it back to mobilize. But Treasury Secretaries don't pre-announce moves like this. They deny them until the morning they don't. 7-Now here's where it gets interesting A gold revaluation isn't just a fiscal trick to plug a budget hole. There's a second use that nobody's talking about and it could solve the oil crisis without printing a single dollar. It's called the petrodollar bypass. 8-Quick refresher on how the petrodollar works 1-OPEC prices oil in dollars 2-They recycle dollar profits into U.S. Treasuries 3-The U.S. provides military protection This deal was struck in the 's the ONLY reason the dollar is the global reserve currency. And it's slowly breaking. 9-China stopped being a net buyer of Treasuries years ago. Saudi Arabia has been quietly diversifying. The BRICS are building alternatives (mBridge, BRICS Unit, CIPS). The oil producers don't want dollars anymore. They want something that holds its value Something like… gold. 10-Now imagine this conversation US: -Hey Saudi Arabia. We'll buy your oil at $50/barrel. SA: -That's half the current price. No deal US: -But we'll pay you in gold valued at $10,000/oz. SA:-…go on. At those ratios Saudi gets MORE real purchasing power than they get today at $100 cash. 11-The second-order effects are massive • Oil prices drop on global markets • Inflation cools • Fed gets room to cut • Recession risk falls • U.S. pays with an asset it ALREADY OWNS • Zero new dollars printed No QE No money printer Just an accounting entry on a vault in Kentucky. 12-Here's the wildest part of this story In 1973 after the Arab Oil Embargo, several European central banks proposed doing exactly this revaluing their gold and using it to pay OPEC the U.S. blocked them. Why? Because the petrodollar was being built and oil HAD to settle in dollars. 13-53 years later the U.S. itself may need the very tool it once denied to its allies. The historical rhyme is too perfect to ignore.1973 stagflation isn't just an analogy anymore. It's becoming a literal repeat including the policy response. 14-So the question isn't IF the Treasury still has options The question is WHEN they pull the lever Watch for these 5 signals- 1-More private credit gates in Q2 2-Central bank gold buying accelerating 3-Bessent shifting from no plans to studying options 4-Gold rising faster than oil 5-Any draft legislation on gold reserve repricing 15/ The TLDR The economy hasn't collapsed because the people running it still have ONE MORE MOVE • 261.5M oz of gold • Frozen at $42.22 since 1973 • Worth $1.22 TRILLION at market • Done 3 times before • Fed is studying it • Treasury Secretary hinted at it This is the trade of the decade. 16- Most investors are watching the wrong thing •They're watching stocks •They should be watching the oldest most boring asset on the federal balance sheet •The one that's been sitting in a vault since 1937 •The one nobody's repriced in 53 years •The one that changes everything 17-Why is oil such a powerful recession indicator? Because oil is what economists call an (input cost) for basically everything in the economy. •Food production- Uses oil (tractors, fertilizer, transport) •Manufacturing- Uses oil •Shipping-Uses oil •Airlines-Uses oil •Plastics, chemicals and packaging-All use oil When oil goes up, the cost of making and moving every physical thing in the economy goes up too. That squeezes corporate profit margins. It eats real wages It forces central banks into an impossible choice fight inflation OR support growth They can't do both. This isn't psychological It's mechanical Oil up = recession follow Every Single Time. 18-So where are we today? On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel went to open war with Iran. Within days traffic through the Strait of Hormuz the 100-mile waterway where 20% of the world's oil flows through collapsed. The IEA called it "the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." Not one of the largest THE largest Bigger than 1973. Bigger than 1979.Bigger than anything we've ever seen. And here's the part that makes 2026 different from every prior oil shock The Strategic Petroleum Reserve America's emergency oil stockpile is almost EMPTY. Biden drained it in 2022 to fight post-Ukraine inflation. It was never fully refilled. The U.S. and allies have already released ~400 million barrels (the largest release on record) and that buffer runs out in mid-April. In every prior oil shock, the SPR was the safety net This time, there is no net. 19-the Federal Reserve In 2008 and 2020 the Fed did massive QE printed trillions of dollars to bail out the economy It worked WITHOUT causing inflation. Why? Because in BOTH cases, oil was COLLAPSING at the same time Falling oil prices gave the Fed cover the deflationary pressure from cheap energy offset the inflationary pressure from money printing. That's literally the only reason QE worked Today-oil is RISING not falling. If the Fed launches QE now to bail out the credit markets it's printing money INTO an inflation shock the result wouldn't be 2009-style asset reflation. It would be 1973-style stagflation the absolute worst-case outcome. The Fed knows this that's why they're trapped. They CAN'T cut, They CAN'T QE.They have to sit and watch (that's my opinion) Every normal tool the U.S. uses to escape a crisis like this is broken or unavailable. 🤯🤯 There's ONE tool left It's been sitting in a vault since 1937 And the U.S. government is the only entity in the world that can use it. 10-The U.S. Treasury holds 261.5 million ounces of gold That's 8,133 metric tons the largest sovereign gold reserve in the world. On the OFFICIAL books of the U.S. Treasury that gold is valued at $42.22 per ounce. That is not a typo That is the actual statutory price. It was set by Richard Nixon in 1973 (53 years ago) and has never been updated. Meanwhile the REAL market price of gold today is approximately $4,672 per ounce. • Book value: ~$11 BILLION • Real market value: ~$1.22 TRILLION The gap between those two numbers $1.21 TRILLION is just sitting there Unrealized Doing nothing. The U.S. Treasury can change that with an accounting entry. That sounds like a conspiracy theory It's not The U.S. has done it THREE TIMES before. Then nothing Crickets For 53 years. The price has been frozen at $42.22 while the market price went to $400, $1,000, $2,000, $3,000, and now $4,672. If they did it in 2026? It would be a +11,000% revaluation Not 11%. ELEVEN THOUSAND PERCENT. This is the largest accounting trick in U.S. history just waiting to be used. The American economy in 2026 is being held together by inertia. The credit system is cracking. The labour market is weakening. The oil shock has no historical precedent the Fed is trapped. If you read this far you now see what almost no one else sees every clue in the case points to the same answer. The economy hasn't collapsed because the people running it still have one move left. The question is when?......... Thank you for reading this thread. I hope you found it valuable😇👊👌

SP500🎯✔️ Sp500 waxa nogula dhacay target-keni kowaad . Madama hada la keenay meel no aheed KL(key level ) waxa laga yaba meshan ka samaysato pullback to these 6800-6750 level in (short term ) Then lasii aado last previous high oo ah KL(key level ) adag .

@fahma0597 Eid mubarak

Eid Mubarak ✨✨

DXY Update Target🎯

DXY Update Target🎯✅ DXY is at a critical level. Will it break this resistance, or will we see a rejection here? Time will tell.🧐🧐⌛️

Every Major DXY Collapse in History And Why This Time Is Different The dollar just hit 97, down 15% from its 2022 highs. People are panicking. But here’s what history actually shows👇🏾 1-THE SHIFT IS REAL The dollar's share of global reserves has fallen from 73% (2001) to 58% (today). This isn't noise it's a structural decline that accelerated dramatically after the 2022 Russian sanctions. Every emerging market central banker took notice when the West froze Russia's dollar reserves. 2-THE ROOT CAUSE WEAPONISATION When you freeze a country’s dollar denominated assets you send a message to every other nation “Holding dollars means accepting political risk.” China, Saudi Arabia, India and Brazil all heard this message loud it clearly. Their response was simple build alternatives. 3-THE TWIN DEFICITS TRAP The U.S. now runs $2+ trillion in combined trade and fiscal deficits every year. Normally this would crush a currency but reserve status demand has kept the dollar afloat. The problem? This is the Triffin Dilemma the U.S. must run deficits to supply global liquidity but those same deficits eventually erode trust in the currency. We’re now moving closer to that tipping point. 4-DE-DOLLARIZATION IN ACTION 🏆 Central banks are buying record amounts of gold (1,136 tonnes in 2022). 🇨🇳 China now has currency swap lines with 40+ countries (4 trillion yuan). 🌍 BRICS nations representing 45% of the global population are building alternative payment systems. 🏛 Even long standing U.S. allies are increasingly calling for greater “monetary sovereignty.” These aren’t proposals they’re happening now. 5-THE REAL GAME CHANGER TECHNOLOGY 💻Digital currency infrastructure is removing the old barriers that kept the world locked into a single dominant system. 🇨🇳 China’s digital yuan already processes billions in transactions, and 🏛 the Bank for International Settlements is developing mBridge for real time multi currency settlement. The dollar’s “infrastructure lock in”one of its strongest advantages is now disappearing. 6-WHO’S BUYING U.S. DEBT? China’s Treasury holdings peaked at $1.3T in 2013 and are now below $800B and still falling. Foreign buyers overall have become net sellers for the first time in decades. So who’s absorbing the issuance? ✨The Federal Reserve through QE and reinvestments ✨Domestic institutions pressured by regulation (banks, pensions, insurers) This isn’t healthy market demand it’s financial repression. what’s different THIS time 🕰️ Previous declines were policy crisis driven and eventually reversed. The current decline is structural de-dollarization and may be permanent. Why? Russia sanctions showed that dollar reserves aren’t fully safe. 1-BRICS is building alternatives 2-CBDCs are eliminating the dollar’s infrastructure lock-in 3-Central banks are buying gold and selling Treasuries 4-China has cut Treasury holdings from $1.3T - $775B The pattern Every major decline historically combined fiscal stress + trade deficits + rising alternatives. All three are present now but a 4th factor never existed before weaponization risk. History suggests DXY 70–75 is possible (another 25% down). That’s not bearish that’s normal. What’s not normal: There is no reversal catalyst. The world isn’t trying to stabilize the dollar system it’s trying to replace it. The dollar has survived 40–50%crashes before but it has never faced deliberate, coordinated abandonment. That’s the difference.

@fahma0597 Ramadan kariim

Ramadan Mubarak ☪️🌙

Bitcoin (BTC) vs USDT.D juma Mubarak Dadka maanta Heestaan u daaran tahy waxa ee sugayaan Qaybta danbe vedio maalmihii wacnaa wey soo socdaan insha allh 😂😂

BTC update🤔

@fahma0597 @kiin85 Amazing 👏 well done queen

BTC update🎯

DXY 🤔👀 🧭 DXY at a crossroads DXY below 96 signals a weak-dollar environment → Gold rises ✨ → Commodities strengthen ⚙️ → Emerging markets benefit 🌍 DXY above 98 signals a strong-dollar environment → Gold weakens → Liquidity tightens → USD dominance returns 📍 The chart shows we are at a major decision point. 🔥 Whichever way DXY breaks in February will likely shape the entire financial regime of 2026.

ALTURA (ALU)👁️👁️ D.Y.O.R

Mala socotaaa 1 minuets ka yar inaa ku ogaaan karto lacagta crypto soo gashay iyo meelaha lacagta igu badan ku socoto kaliya ado isticmaaalaya watchelist TradingView Sida sawirka ka muuqata watchelist Total waxa soo gashay lacag gaareeso +71.619B lacagta ugu badan waxa ee kala aaday 👇 1- BTC = +41.606 Billion ( dhaqaaaq ayaa jira BTC) 2- Alt-coin = +17.516 Billion (Altcoin dhaqaaq ayaa jira coins) 3- Ethereum (+12.755 Billion) dhaqaaq ayaa jira lkn waxaa ka dhaqaaq fiican Altcoins inkastoo iska daba dhawyihiin. Total marketcap = Bitcoin market cap + Ethereum Market cap + Alt-coin (TOTAL3 excluding Stablecoins) +(Stable.C) watchelist 👇 tradingview.com/watchlists/209…

Self-comparison:- - Everyone is on a different timeline. - Comparison is the thief of joy. - Run your own race.

Bitcoin (BTC) : Update Target 🎯✅ Fursadu hada wee qurux badan tahy (DYOR)✈️🚀 WEEKLY CANDLE (W) 👁️👁️👁️👁️ History Repeats itself 📈📈📈 x.com/MunasarMoh/sta…

BITCOIN (BTC) Zones aan filanaaye waa la gaaray 🎯. Next maxaa xiga ? insha allh chartiga waxa uu sheega la soconeena si qaas (weekly candle) 1 day ayaa ka dhiman 👁️ Fursada weyn ayaa jirta 🚀