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Shadowban🫸🏻🫷🏼
@ICinese
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A quality valuation analysis on $NFLX 🧘🏽♂️ •NTM P/E Ratio: 22.04x •4-Year Mean: 32.09x •NTM FCF Yield: 3.77% •4-Year Mean: 2.51% As you can see, $NFLX appears to be trading below fair value Going forward, investors can receive ~45% MORE in EPS & ~50% MORE FCF per share 🧠*** Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NFLX is a great business BALANCE SHEET✅ •Cash & Short-Term Inv: $12.29B •Long-Term Debt: $13.36B $NFLX has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating, & 15x FFO Interest Coverage RETURN ON CAPITAL✅ •2022: 11% •2023: 13% •2024: 19% •2025: 23% •LTM: 26% $NFLX maintains strong and improving returns on capital, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business REVENUES✅ •2022: $31.61B •2026E: $51.38B •CAGR: 12.91% FREE CASH FLOW✅ •2022: $1.62B •2026E: $13.17B •CAGR: 68.85% NORMALIZED EPS✅ •2022: $0.99 •2026E: $3.58 •CAGR: 37.89% SHARE BUYBACKS✅ •2022 Shares Outstanding: 4.51B •LTM Shares Outstanding: 4.32B By reducing its shares outstanding by 4%, $NFLX increased its EPS by 4% (assuming 0 growth) MARGINS✅ •LTM Gross Margins: 49.03% •LTM Operating Margins: 29.72% •LTM Net Income Margins: 28.52% ***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠 As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~45% MORE in EPS & ~50% MORE FCF per share Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NFLX has to grow earnings at an 11.02% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (11.02%) required growth rate: 2026E: $3.58 (41% YoY) *FY Dec 2027E: $3.84 (7% YoY) 2028E: $4.60 (20% YoY) $NFLX has an ok record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $NFLX ends 2028 with $4.60 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples 27x P/E: $124💵 … ~22.7% CAGR 25x P/E: $115💵 … ~18.9% CAGR 23x P/E: $105💵 … ~15.0% CAGR 22x P/E: $101💵 … ~12.9% CAGR 21x P/E: $97💵 … ~10.8% CAGR $NFLX trades near the low end of its historical valuation range, just as advertising is beginning to scale and APAC/LATAM still represent only ~24% of revenue and remain a huge long-term growth driver At a 22x multiple, the case rests primarily on execution rather than multiple expansion. If advertising and international markets deliver, there’s room for some re-rating from today’s lower levels — allowing for the twin-engines to work (EPS growth + multiple expansion) And as FCF margins continue to expand, the company’s economics are becoming increasingly attractive, supporting aggressive share repurchases at current levels Today, at $75💵 $NFLX appears to be a strong consideration for investment ___ 𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️ 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞, 𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫, 𝐨𝐫 𝐚 𝐬𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐮𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝. 𝐀𝐧𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐞𝐱𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐩𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐮𝐛𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲 𝐨𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.































