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@ITangoI

Owner of ceo founder vp vc | Ex-techbro now techprophet | Building in my head (IDEA GUY) | QUANTQUANTQUANT | Brainrot trainer | Wingdings enthusiast| 69T MRR

🌧️☔seahDULL Katılım Şubat 2011
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Co@ITangoI·
I believe in you
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Co@ITangoI·
Not open sourcing ai is unamerican. Oh frontier models are weapons!!! Yeah and the first and second amendment protect them, to the chagrin of every authoritarian. Denying the gift of fire because man can hurt himself is nanny helicopter parent energy.
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Co@ITangoI·
@Simple__Truths @yacineMTB That would be a coherent argument if it was a 1:1 release of the weights. But GPT-OSS 20/120B being updated wouldn't be a 1:1 weights release.
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Frostbite@Simple__Truths·
@yacineMTB Does seeing his argument written out more sensibly change your view? Genuine, not a troll x.com/i/status/20786…
Haseeb >|<@hosseeb

This argument by @deanwball is being badly misunderstood. It's OK to disagree with it, but first you have to actually understand what he's saying. He's saying: releasing the weights for a frontier-level model is effectively dumping. Dumping is when you sell a product at significantly below cost in order to corner market share. It's illegal. The reason: dumping results in short-term consumer surplus, but long-term it prevents the formation of a competitive market and discourages capex outside of the dumper. Standard Oil famously did this in order to consolidate the oil market before it was broken up. So why is he claiming releasing the weights of a frontier level model is basically dumping? Isn't he just describing open source? His argument: it's not financially sustainable to train a frontier model and release the weights. In the long run, you will not be able to internalize enough of the gains given the cost of training a frontier model, because neoclouds and other inference providers will be able to outcompete you at actually serving the model. It costs an astronomical amount of money to train frontier models, and if everyone else can serve them, you don't capture enough of the surplus to pay for the training and R&D. It's not like normal open source when you build some software and then release it and sell services on top of it. The amount of capex required for frontier-level models is an order of magnitude higher than normal software, which is why doing this at frontier level is so economically irrational. Right now the Hong Kong stock market is ebullient enough that Chinese AI companies are not getting punished for the fact that they're all deeply, deeply unprofitable. Releasing model weights is great marketing, intellectually appealing, and strikes fear into the hearts of their opponents. We can assume the status quo continues for a while because of the AI supercycle. But eventually the AI market will correct, the Hong Kong market will dump, and suddenly these Chinese labs won't be able to afford to training super expensive models without internalizing more of the gains. But what if China, seeing that this strategy is successfully kneecapping the US lead (by discouraging further capex and lowering valuations), says no--don't stop. And so the Chinese government starts buying up the shares of these companies and demanding that they continue releasing frontier-level weights, profitable or not. In that case, it becomes a genuine space race. For-profit companies cannot continue to compete on either side. US labs valuations fall, and the White House realizes that to keep their advantage in the AI race, they cannot rely on the free market to maintain their lead. They nationalize the labs and fund them off government subsidies. Now you have government-controlled and distributed models on both sides. That's what Dean is calling the "dystopian hellscape." The best analogy is drug development: if China were to sell American drugs back to us really cheaply, that would result in a large short-term consumer surplus. Cheap Viagra and Ozempic is obviously great. But in the long run, this would discourage investment in developing new drugs. That's the sense that Dean is saying it's long-term "decel." Now, I happen to disagree with Dean. I think the consumer surplus of having frontier-level open weight models is huge, even at the current capabilities. I also think China is going to defect from this strategy soon (there's been reporting along these lines, that Beijing will stop allowing large models to be open-weight; I think there are other reasons for this aside from competition). I also suspect that nationalization of labs is inevitable as they take on more geopolitical and cyber capabilities. But he's not wrong--releasing frontier-level weight models is weird. The question of how long this market will remain profit-driven is a very coherent question to ask.

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Co@ITangoI·
None of this big drama would have happened if openai was updating GPT-OSS occasionally. That's the big issue with AI right now. The availability of American lab open source models at all while China open models nips at the heels of closed source frontier models.
Dean W. Ball@deanwball

I'd like to do two things: (1) tell you where I think I erred in my original post about Kimi and (2) set the record straight about my views on open-weight AI. Before I joined OpenAI (and folks who are new followers: I joined the company less than two weeks ago and it is my first job in the technology industry), I often tweeted about the controversy of the day in a cold and analytic fashion. One aspect of my style was saying brutally honest things, including things inconvenient for my 'side' and my beliefs. The post about Kimi was largely written in that vein. When I said that the USG would probably realize its best option is to do ill-justified soft-law discouragement of Chinese AI, I wasn't proposing it like a good idea. Why on Earth would I do that? Why would I frame something I'm advocating for in such brutal terms? I am trying to describe what I believe will happen, not advocate for anything. My first mistake: What I now realize is that this style of analysis is no longer tenable. There is simply too much scrutiny on my words, too much temptation to draw conspiracies from my claims, and the like. It is my fault for not realizing this. Second mistake: I was relatively imprecise, writing, as I usually do, for a fairly high-context audience that was inclined to give me grace rather than pick apart every word. I should not have said, for instance, that open-weight models are unqualifiedly 'decelerationist'; I don't believe that. I only believe specifically that open-weight models decelerate capex spending on the margin, which is straightforwardly true. I did not say it was decelerationist for any other reason than that, and this is the only way in which I think open-weight AI is inherently decelerationist (though it is a big way). In many other ways, open-weight AI is profoundly accelerationist. Now, to where I stand on open-weight AI. My earliest experiences on the internet were posting in forums about philosophy, music, and movies in the early 2000s. Over time I realizes that forums on different websites had the same underlying forum software; this was the first time it occurred to me that 'software' is a thing people make (I realize this is a simple observation, but we are talking about an 11 year old with no prior exposure to computers). I looked into the software, and discovered that it was 'open source,' built and maintained for free by thousands of people around the world to facilitate the communication of millions of strangers. This notion struck me as deeply beautiful, and I decided I'd try to help. I began writing technical documentation, and later on, code, for this little forum project. This was how I first learned technical skills. I cherish that time, that software, and I have deep and abiding affinity for open-source software. The vast majority of the people commenting on my post have very little context for my prior writing. For instance, the fact that I wrote, in 2024, things like: "those who wish to hoard our software technologies may well be foreclosing on—or perhaps not even understand—the staggering civilizational victory that we earned through openness" or "I would like for AI to result in a similar smashing victory for America. To do that, we will need to set the global standard yet again. And to do that, we will almost certainly need to lead in open-source AI, because it is open protocols and open software that tend to define global standards in information technologies." I stand by these things. When I was in government, I worked alongside my colleagues to develop ideas and rhetoric that was strongly supportive of open-weight AI, and some of this work made it into the current US AI strategy. I stand by that work too. I also wrote, more than two years ago: "The day may come when frontier AI really is too dangerous to open source. If so, that will be a sad day. But we’re not there yet. Today’s models are not sufficiently useful—or dangerous—to justify such a drastic shift in public policy." I think it's pretty clear that we are approaching the point I describe--the point where, absent a major technical safety breakthrough, the national security implications of frontier open-weight model distribution are simply too severe. I don't think we're there yet (as I said in the piece), but the direction of travel is clear, and an analyst must be honest about this. Governments will realize these risks eventually, and when they do, they will have much lower risk tolerance than I have. We see this today with the Trump Administration, which once proudly championed open-source AI and now has a de facto licensing regime for frontier AI that I suspect will make it a challenge (if they still end up enforcing it) to release the weights of models of the "Mythos" tier. Every government will be safetyists once they understand themselves to be in the foxhole. You don't have to *like* this. I don't. But it is the reality as I see it, and what I have always tried to do with my writing is describe reality as I see it, even when it is inconvenient for me and my preferences. I intend to continue doing this. I will not be silenced by ignorant and loud critics. Yet I will have to work to find the new register I should adopt in my current job, which clearly changes the nature of my public communications even more than I had thought. But believe me: I'm not going anywhere. I am not retreating from public writing, and I am not retreating from saying inconvenient things in public. I am unfazed by harsh criticism, and I know that a reaction of this magnitude is in part the result of having struck a chord. Bear with me, and if you can, remember that I am a human being with a six-month old boy to raise, a book to write, a new job, and much more questions than answers about our collective future.

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Co@ITangoI·
@deanwball Update GPT-OSS if you don't think its a national security issue yet.
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Dean W. Ball
Dean W. Ball@deanwball·
I'd like to do two things: (1) tell you where I think I erred in my original post about Kimi and (2) set the record straight about my views on open-weight AI. Before I joined OpenAI (and folks who are new followers: I joined the company less than two weeks ago and it is my first job in the technology industry), I often tweeted about the controversy of the day in a cold and analytic fashion. One aspect of my style was saying brutally honest things, including things inconvenient for my 'side' and my beliefs. The post about Kimi was largely written in that vein. When I said that the USG would probably realize its best option is to do ill-justified soft-law discouragement of Chinese AI, I wasn't proposing it like a good idea. Why on Earth would I do that? Why would I frame something I'm advocating for in such brutal terms? I am trying to describe what I believe will happen, not advocate for anything. My first mistake: What I now realize is that this style of analysis is no longer tenable. There is simply too much scrutiny on my words, too much temptation to draw conspiracies from my claims, and the like. It is my fault for not realizing this. Second mistake: I was relatively imprecise, writing, as I usually do, for a fairly high-context audience that was inclined to give me grace rather than pick apart every word. I should not have said, for instance, that open-weight models are unqualifiedly 'decelerationist'; I don't believe that. I only believe specifically that open-weight models decelerate capex spending on the margin, which is straightforwardly true. I did not say it was decelerationist for any other reason than that, and this is the only way in which I think open-weight AI is inherently decelerationist (though it is a big way). In many other ways, open-weight AI is profoundly accelerationist. Now, to where I stand on open-weight AI. My earliest experiences on the internet were posting in forums about philosophy, music, and movies in the early 2000s. Over time I realizes that forums on different websites had the same underlying forum software; this was the first time it occurred to me that 'software' is a thing people make (I realize this is a simple observation, but we are talking about an 11 year old with no prior exposure to computers). I looked into the software, and discovered that it was 'open source,' built and maintained for free by thousands of people around the world to facilitate the communication of millions of strangers. This notion struck me as deeply beautiful, and I decided I'd try to help. I began writing technical documentation, and later on, code, for this little forum project. This was how I first learned technical skills. I cherish that time, that software, and I have deep and abiding affinity for open-source software. The vast majority of the people commenting on my post have very little context for my prior writing. For instance, the fact that I wrote, in 2024, things like: "those who wish to hoard our software technologies may well be foreclosing on—or perhaps not even understand—the staggering civilizational victory that we earned through openness" or "I would like for AI to result in a similar smashing victory for America. To do that, we will need to set the global standard yet again. And to do that, we will almost certainly need to lead in open-source AI, because it is open protocols and open software that tend to define global standards in information technologies." I stand by these things. When I was in government, I worked alongside my colleagues to develop ideas and rhetoric that was strongly supportive of open-weight AI, and some of this work made it into the current US AI strategy. I stand by that work too. I also wrote, more than two years ago: "The day may come when frontier AI really is too dangerous to open source. If so, that will be a sad day. But we’re not there yet. Today’s models are not sufficiently useful—or dangerous—to justify such a drastic shift in public policy." I think it's pretty clear that we are approaching the point I describe--the point where, absent a major technical safety breakthrough, the national security implications of frontier open-weight model distribution are simply too severe. I don't think we're there yet (as I said in the piece), but the direction of travel is clear, and an analyst must be honest about this. Governments will realize these risks eventually, and when they do, they will have much lower risk tolerance than I have. We see this today with the Trump Administration, which once proudly championed open-source AI and now has a de facto licensing regime for frontier AI that I suspect will make it a challenge (if they still end up enforcing it) to release the weights of models of the "Mythos" tier. Every government will be safetyists once they understand themselves to be in the foxhole. You don't have to *like* this. I don't. But it is the reality as I see it, and what I have always tried to do with my writing is describe reality as I see it, even when it is inconvenient for me and my preferences. I intend to continue doing this. I will not be silenced by ignorant and loud critics. Yet I will have to work to find the new register I should adopt in my current job, which clearly changes the nature of my public communications even more than I had thought. But believe me: I'm not going anywhere. I am not retreating from public writing, and I am not retreating from saying inconvenient things in public. I am unfazed by harsh criticism, and I know that a reaction of this magnitude is in part the result of having struck a chord. Bear with me, and if you can, remember that I am a human being with a six-month old boy to raise, a book to write, a new job, and much more questions than answers about our collective future.
Dean W. Ball@deanwball

I’m afraid to tell you that it is effectively impossible to do the kind of writing I used to do on this website, not because anyone at OpenAI censors me but because of the sheer volume of hostility I get for sharing my analysis as a frontier lab employee. I enjoyed writing quick takes on this website for one basic reason: I could get rapid feedback on my own ideation process in real time. Post the early version of the take here, see the criticism; then refine, sharpen, and repeat. Unfortunately now that feature of this site is gone, because the feedback I get is now almost exclusively colored by resentment at the fact that I work at a frontier lab or other forms of hatred for my employer. The feedback signal is essentially useless now, so writing on here is not fruitful for me anymore. Literally everything I write now is responded to with “of course you said that because .” I am truly just writing what I think and would have written anyway, but everyone reads what I say in the shrieking tone of “this is what openai thinks!!!!” (to be clear, my posts are not what openai thinks). This is an unpleasant and more importantly unproductive pattern for me. I anticipate that the shape of this account will change significantly as a result. I do not currently know how. It will not become a LinkedIn feed. It will change in some other way. It will no longer be a real-time accounting of my own thinking as it develops, since this is precisely the thing that seems impossible to do now. That will have to shift to private channels.

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Co@ITangoI·
@yacineMTB it's a shame gpt-120 never had an update
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kache@yacineMTB·
Only cuckolds rely on closed source software that runs on other people's computers that runs on their land. And AI is software that I genuinely cannot live without If you're okay with renting your intelligence forever you are a cuckold
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Co@ITangoI·
@denstarr4 They both are chemical concoctions
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Vegas Conservative
Vegas Conservative@denstarr4·
One of these is ice cream. The other one is a chemical concoction.
Vegas Conservative tweet mediaVegas Conservative tweet media
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Dillon Mulroy
Dillon Mulroy@dillon_mulroy·
what’s the best tooling to let agents use a browser rn? agents always seem to burn a ton of tokens using things like agent-browser esp using helium (@uwukko maybe you have some good guidance here?)
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Co@ITangoI·
@apostraphi they taste okay. not WOW I NEED ONE but okay
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Phi Hoang
Phi Hoang@apostraphi·
gradients on sale
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Co@ITangoI·
@theoharvey tbh didn't even taste the tuna
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Theo Harvey
Theo Harvey@theoharvey·
@ITangoI I get it.... maybe without the tuna 😢 the tuna in this is a violation 😂
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Co@ITangoI·
Idk what I made. Spam. Tuna. Mushroom gravy. Cream of mushroom soup. Parmesan. Things. Moidslop at its finest.
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Hädl⁷
Hädl⁷@hdiltk7·
الممثلة الكورية "أوه إن هي" تنمّروا عليها الكوريين لسنوات بسبب فستان عدّلته بنفسها لأنها ما تملك فلوس لمنسق أزياء... دمروا مسيرتها لين أنهت حياتها بعمر 36 سنة.. وقبلها نزلت فيديو بقناتها و طلع قليتش غريب بنصه و كأنها تنىىهي حياتها بالمشط
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public_intellectual
public_intellectual@publicinte·
@0xluffy I used to be on this tip till I read it increases chance of bacterial infections and put a stop to it
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West Coast Kenny
West Coast Kenny@kenthecowboy_·
Not enough people took me seriously, so I decided to up the ante For the last 7 months, I have been vaping from when I wake up to when I go to bed. The equivalent of a pack of cigarettes, sometimes more. Why? To prove addiction isnt real, youre all just pussies
West Coast Kenny@kenthecowboy_

This Sunday I got my first vape pen. I was at a shithole town in texas with no coffee and wanted stimulants. I hit that shit constantly for 3 days straight until I decided to get my life together last night and threw it away Yall really be getting addicted to this? Damn lol

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tenso@distributedkv·
every other girl you meet after her will be just like her
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Co@ITangoI·
@FrancoisChauba1 @WestsideLAGuy Yes the story is about one of the CEOs of Moonshot who left the US to start his AI business with his 3 other college band mates.
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Francois Chaubard
Francois Chaubard@FrancoisChauba1·
@WestsideLAGuy he, being one person? ok.. dont know him so will take your word. but the other 99.999999%? what about the many that want to stay here? should we force them back still? about half my phd class at stanford is from china or iran. many want to stay. but cant.
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Francois Chaubard
Francois Chaubard@FrancoisChauba1·
one of the most important things we can do. if you are chinese in AI, here is a greencard. and just like that, we win AI. instead we say: come here get your phd, we will educate you, then send you back to china to do AI. brain dead.
Ankit Gupta@agupta

FYI that America’s moronic visa policy is almost certainly a factor in why Kimi/Moonshot is a Chinese startup and not an American one. The fact that we don’t staple a green card to every AI PhD completed in America is stupid. would be more logical to seize their passports and force them to stay

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tenso@distributedkv·
@ITangoI it's all our imagination tbh
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Co@ITangoI·
@pnadimi Realistically how would this have stopped him from returning home and starting a business with his college bandmates?
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Co@ITangoI·
@BigotedNox They're summoning the undead! That's a dullahan! Lock him up in gigajail
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Co@ITangoI·
@BigotedNox Straight to jail. HEADLESS?
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