Iago

@sidprabhu @rhunterh These factors, as you say, were all evident circa 2020-22. The risk reward for duration, with long end reals 2.75-3%, is a quite different proposition

Did I write this Lacy Hunt capitulation letter in my sleep?? Wild how he has reached the same conclusion I arrived at 5-6 years ago after decimating his clients' capital. Anyway, this plus the recent capitulation of notable value investors to momentum probably means its time to shift from bond bearishness to stock bearishness for a bit. Onwards...

@Scholars_Stage I think Toynbee’s challenge/response framework for civilizations is as valid as ever, considering the history of the US since 9/11

1. Dryden 2. Carlyle 3. Spengler 4. Toynbee 5. Kipling

@bauhiniacapital Placing hope in trade deals is indeed a triumph of hope over experience, but some countries do honour the terms instead of reneging in year 1 and then reverting to the usual pilfering and stealing

I'm gonna guess those trade deals will be to sell airplanes, military materials, and ag products to all those gulf countries. Just like last year. Oh, and American O&G, because it's the best and cheapest.

@bauhiniacapital I guess it’s ‘socially malign’ at a musk company but ok in the PRC where it’s routine like Salt Typhoon and Equifax. I’m also guessing the recent distillation strategies on the part of China’s tech national champions are ok with you too

xAI/SPCX being caught stealing private data and acting as malware? Really? Such societally malign behaviour at a Musk company? Really?

@Birdyword Disraeli by Robert Blake

Anyone read a great historical biography recently?

@MikeFritzell His dad worked on Wall Street for decades so he grew up with the culture. But no doubt it’s an outstanding screenplay that captures the zeitgeist of 80s Wall Street. Gekko’s monologue ‘we make the rules pal’ when Bud confronts him is even better IMO

I still don't understand how Oliver Stone - who created the movie Wall Street to caution against corporate greed - could have written a speech this good youtu.be/OHnZi87272U?si…

@glevonian @volatilitysmile Yea ok sure. Let’s see if the Asians want America out. Southeast Asian countries like Thailand and Singapore were some of the most hawkish on Vietnam because they knew who the Vietcong and Khmer Rouge really were, just as today they know who the CCP really are

@volatilitysmile US will be out of Asia too. Peace in our time.

Fortress America, you sillies. China is out.

@BrankoMilan Awful take. China ‘did not exploit the rest of the world’ in building its industrial model and massive trade surplus, yet it has consistently manipulated its currency weaker since joining the WTO, engages in state-sponsored IP theft, and screws over JV partners in tech transfers

Nobody can take seriously European complaints about China. China is now building things better and more cheaply than Germany or France. When France and Germany built things better and more cheaply than others, they ridiculed such complaints. Now they are losing and not liking it. Moreover, Europe came to that position by exploiting the rest of the world. China did not.

@MikeFritzell @felixleezd And why was Lee Kwan Yew’s advice to young Singaporeans to go abroad and live before returning to Sg to run a biz and start a family?

@felixleezd Then why do you live in SF?

Singaporeans are romanticizing every country except their own. And it's the dumbest trade in the world. You're trading the best functioning city on earth for a Netflix version of America that doesn't exist. I'm Singaporean. I grew up in Singapore and now live in San Francisco for @ADPList. And my friends who moved to London, Melbourne, NYC. I love them, but here's what's actually happening over there. SF's single bedroom will cost $4k a month. Melbourne is great if you like waiting forty minutes for a tram that's late. NYC is a hundred dollars before you've even left the apartment. Meanwhile in SG, you tap on the MRT. The next train is in two minutes. You eat a Michelin meal for $6 at a hawker. You walk home at 2am and it's safer than most cities at noon. Healthcare works. The government replies to your email. And here's what nobody wants to say out loud. The reason Singaporeans romanticize abroad isn't because abroad is better. It's because Singapore works so well that we forgot to be impressed by it. We confused "boring" with "functioning." We thought sterile meant soulless. But every country I've been to would kill to have what Singapore made normal. You don't need to move to SF/NYC to feel alive. Go to Geylang at midnight. Take the bumboat to Pulau Ubin. Eat at a kopitiam down your HDB. You're romanticizing the wrong country. It's the one you're in.

@simonmontefiore An alternative interpretation: 1914-1945 was a second 30 Years’ War in Europe with both decimating Germany

‘The Second World War started in 1931… and in China’. Is this such a revelation? Dont most histories of WW2 now recognize it started in 1931? Or at least 1937? See Richard Overy. Or my World. thetimes.com/article/fc83e4…

@MaMoMVPY Does Denmark have any ships in their navy yet? Maybe Americans will quit going on about Greenland when Denmark can properly patrol and defend it

Yet another snowflake....1-4

@jeuasommenulle @Alea_ @salogaviriab South Africa was 2010 WC. Also in that WC, US had two disallowed, 1 vs Algeria 1 vs Slovenia. Both episodes this WC for England and US are smelly, but perhaps some divine justice given they were on the receiving end in the past

@Alea_ @salogaviriab Can't argue with the hand of God

Here’s a full unbiased (I hope) legal analysis of what happened in the Switzerland-Argentina game. The facts: Paredes get a yellow for a tackle, VAR reviewed, ref said it’s a simulation, Embolo was booked, 2nd yellow, red, Argentina won. Was this legal?

@georgemagnus1 @izakaminska That’s the face of a man with a thousand masks

@izakaminska seriously?

Very readable theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2…

@TheSpeculator0 And the lack of daily structure sees needs and distractions finding you

One of the sinister things about gardening leave is that it's incredibly pointless to pursue a time intensive hobby if you know you won't have time for it in a month anyway.

@EmmanuelMacron Yes Macron, Sykes-Picot was full of trust, good faith and plain-dealing on the part of France. Syrians are eternally grateful

التاريخ بين سوريا وفرنسا هو حكاية ثقة اكبر منا.

@Mylovanov Anne Applebaum is like if you ordered a Kremlinologist on Temu

Applebaum: Trump's Ukraine policy is very personal. It's driven by his relationship with Putin and his expectation that he'll be able to do business deals with Putin. It affects him more than what people in Congress say. 1/

@JulianRoepcke Let me guess you had nothing to say in 2010 when the US had 2 goals disallowed from bad calls in 2 games (and still won its group) and the World Cup wasnt over for you when England had a clear goal disallowed at a crucial time against Germany?

Bei aller Liebe, aber diese WM ist doch zu Ende. In dem Moment, wo ein Staatschef auf den ausführenden Verband eines Turniers einwirkt, um rote Karten rückgängig zu machen, ist das Spiel doch einfach im Eimer. Trump zerstört alles, was er berührt …

@HeidiBachram Spain expelling Sephardic Jews was one of the biggest own goals in Western European history. The Dutch should put up statues of Torquemada for all the talent and wealth he leaked to them

The San Fermin festival in Pamplona, Spain opened with a giant banner saying “Destroy Israel”. Not surprising from a place where all Jews were forcibly converted, expelled or killed. History repeats itself.

@Geo_papic There only two questions that matter: Was it truly a red and would any other team, federation, and powers that be act and do the same?

@Geo_papic Well said. 2002 was ridiculous and the onset of exposing the corruption of FIFA, UEFA, and all the tinpot federations on the take. And the US was on the receiving end in 2010 having two disallowed goals in two different games.

I am fascinated by all the controversy over this Balogun move... This is standard World Cup stuff! I mean... have you all forgotten the 2002 World Cup? Or where the last TWO World Cups were hosted!? Everyone's acting like Trump is corrupting the Vatican here (although even that is probably a bad example!). Also... can we pump the breaks on Balogun? Like the whole thing is meaningful, but despite the celebration move, he is not actually LeBron. It's not like the US went out and got some Cameroonian ex-pat to complete their roster. 'Na mean? (Not bitter at all...)