@aleabitoreddit I was waiting for the board's vote yesterday on the share increase, apparently it was adjourned
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Sattam
855 posts
Sattam
@iamsattam
A ponderer and a wandering wonderer; too human #Art | #Philosophy | #Psychology | #Whatever
Riyadh Katılım Haziran 2023
146 Takip Edilen41 Takipçiler
This $AXTI / InP substrate export controls is EXACTLY why:
Trump's America 1st policies should focus around securing its supply chains over in EU/Japan/KR.
And weaponizing it against China.
US alone has leverage, but everyone together has extreme leverage.
If you use Japan to cut off China's humanoid program / upstream chemicals and leverage EU to cut off China's photonics program:
They'll bend for substrates and rare earths.
You literally need to break their frontier industry development over yields or actually manufacturing the components.
Not just threaten 40% tariffs to stop them from shipping cheap goods.
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@aleabitoreddit You will like this
Convequity@convequity
Soitec Photonic SOI: $780M Bottom-Up vs Goldman $91B CPO Top-Down (~$500M in 2028) At Convequity we built a waterfall model on GS’ $91B cumulative CPO TAM (2026-28) to forecast $SOI's 2028 revenue. 73% lands in 2028 → hyperscalers pay Layer 5 $66.4B. Math (per $1 hyperscalers pay to L5): • L5 spends 35% → L4 $0.35 • L4 spends 65% = $0.2275 (only ~40% of that spend goes to PIC dies — rest leaks to lasers/FAUs/test/yield → $0.091 to foundries) • L3 spends 55% = $0.050 • 15% of that to Soitec SOI wafers = $0.0075 (0.75%) → $1 spent by hyperscalers at Layer 5 results in just $0.0075 with Soitec → ~$500M in 2028 revenue from CPO alone (0.75% * $66.4B). Our prior bottom-up base case (quoted in the article) already showed $780M total AI-optics (current run-rate ~$120M). The upside for Soitec is tremendous. Full model attached. #Soitec #CPO
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Why is our president stock trading like a FinX influencer... Going long on semi supply chains like $JBL to $AMAT?
Looks more like a self-made ETF rather than picking individual longs tbh.
Not surprised if he picks up $CRBS too lol.
Here were the top 100 long positions if you were curious.
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@Yeah_Dave I love this and was very bullish on INFQ pre-de-SPAC, but I am seeing how we might be a couple of years early vs. opportunities in memory, photonics, and data centers, don't you think? Sensors to me felt like a next-gen item (e.g., drones) vs. bottlenecks and world-changing AI
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$INFQ
GPU + CPU + QPU
Frontier models are hitting saturation on tokens (data volume) and context windows (memory). $INFQ CTO walks through how they and $NVDA are working together to add a Quantum Processing Unit to the chain as the next inflection point.
YeahDave@Yeah_Dave
Congrats @infleqtion on the IPO! $CCCX $INFQ Fascinating interview •Pulls out pocket-sized, room-temp quantum core (no chandelier needed) •Gravity satellites (detecting tunnels, heavy materials/nukes) •Implications for financial infra •Quantum Exec Orders •Threat to $BTC
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Sattam retweetledi
Finally vindicated on my $RDDT long 6 weeks later.
Funny thing is…
It’s still down 28% YTD after that absolute blowout of quarter earnings and projections.
Personally think it heads back to $200+ over time (repricing doesn’t happen in a day) since it’s a growing money printer.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$RDDT is getting ridiculous. Looks completely mispriced. Now down 40% over the past few months. If you strip out carry-forward losses, their net profit is ~28% of revenue, which is absolutely enormous. And they’re growing forward revenues 50%+ Y/Y after 70%+ Y/Y growth. If you ever look at $META, you know how much revenue can be optimized/user. There’s an incredibly high ceiling for monetization with Reddit. It’s already derisked since IPO since Reddit is now one of the fastest growing and highest margin companies in the market. One day if it pulls a $CRCL post earnings, we’ll look back and wonder how this was valued at $24 billion MC.
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@aleabitoreddit Yes I remember your MU estimate (still impressive); question is why is accurate estimation a reason for a pullback during ER, unless it was less than estimate which idk if it was the case?
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I said with memory companies like $SNDK or $MU, the repricing happens before the actual earnings. Not actual earnings.
You can estimate it with third party NAND/DRAM Trendforce type price hike reports. Then estimate gross margins off of those.
I did it for Micron earlier as an example and got reported gross margins spot on.
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$SNDK earnings are just way too good...
Q3 earnings:
Revenue: $5.95B vs. ~$4.7B (252% Y/Y growth, 26% beat)
EPS: $23.41 vs. ~$14.5 (62% beat)
Gross Margin: ~78.4% vs. 67.3% (+1,110 bps vs. Est.)
Q4 2024 projections:
Revenue: $7.75B-$8.25B vs. ~$6.5B (23% above estimates)
EPS: $30-33 vs. ~$23 (37.0% above estimates)
Memory companies (disclosure I do own Sandisk) are a bit easier to price in ahead of time vs. names like $RDDT (off of traffic data).
Just purely from third party stuff like NAND price hike reports... so all the repricing does happen ahead of time, not on actual earnings.
Regardless, this is formal confirmation that memory companies are going brrr...
Astronomical earnings from memory players and they'll likely keep marching upward over this year.
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@Dmytro_Lebid @aleabitoreddit What was mentioned that led to this pull-back?
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@aleabitoreddit Need to read between the lines of the report beyond just the headline numbers, as the stock is pulling back in after-hours. Overall, $SNDK remains a strong buy for me for the rest of 2026.
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$SNDK down 8.5% despite posting U.N.R.E.A.L earnings.
- Revenue $5.95B vs. $4.73B expected......LOL wtf
- EPS $23.41 vs. $14.66 expected......LOL wtf
Q4 Guidance
- Revenue $8.1B, up from $6.6B
- EPS $31.50, up from $23.44
Zero debt on balance sheet.
“This quarter marks a fundamental inflection point for Sandisk - where our technology leadership is enabling a deliberate shift in our mix toward the highest-value end markets, led by Datacenter.”
Absolutely mental.
Very easy point to buy more imo.
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs
Just a few trades today, nothing too special. $META on the drop to $600, due to capex overreaction. $NBIS on this ~20% dip from ATHs. Sold a couple large positions that became stagnant w/ very little upcoming catalysts. And re-allocated those funds into building positions out in names like $BE, $QCOM and Asian names like Episil-Precision and SK square. Might treat myself to some $IQE tomorrow too.
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$MRVL cancelled $POET purchase orders after the CFO went out and violated NDA when getting angry.
Ouch to Poet, down -46%, this is why I don’t like companies with single customer concentration risk.
On the bright side for $POET holders they do have $420m cash buffering downside risk and a few other customers (though Marvell was basically the entire Poet bull case story)
It does look like Marvell delayed their own timelines as well by doing this.
That being said, the packaging side is easier to design out for Marvell and they still need to source lasers.
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@EngAlLama @dream0i0 ماكنزي ما يحتاج رفع فاتورة للمواصلات، الاكل فقط اللي يتطلب فاتورة
العربية
@NorAlthumiri خطأ وعيب التغريدة..
ماهو من المروءة، وحتى بعد ما الكل وضّح نفس الإشكال لا تزالين على نفس التغريدة بحيث تذكرين الشيء المخطّأ وكأنه المعلومة العلمية ويتوهَّم جل الناس فيها، ثم تقولين "الشرح" في البوست، وكأنه شرح لكلامك، عوضاً عن انه قي الواقع نقيض كلامك! حتى تنصيص ما ذكرتي..
العربية
جسمك لا يستطيع استخدام اكثر من 25-30 غرام من البروتين في الوجبة الواحدة. اي كمية تزيد عن ذلك تذهب هدراً
الشرح في البوست 👇🏼
William A. Wallace, Ph.D.@WilliamWallace
"Your body can only use 25-30g of protein per meal. Anything above that gets wasted." This claim has been repeated in fitness nutrition for over a decade, and it was built on studies that measured the right thing over the wrong timescale. Moore 2009 gave six young men 0, 5, 10, 20, or 40g of egg protein after leg-only resistance exercise and tracked muscle protein synthesis for four hours. MPS plateaued at 20g. Witard 2014 repeated a similar dose-response with whey protein after unilateral leg exercise in 48 resistance-trained men and found MPS rose 49% at 20g and 56% at 40g over four hours, with the authors concluding 20g was sufficient for maximal stimulation. Case closed, or so it seemed. The problem wasn't the dose. It was that a 4-hour window captures the peak response to 20g but only the opening chapter of what 40g is doing. Think of digestion as a funnel with a fixed flow rate. Pour a cup of water through it and it drains in minutes. Pour a gallon and it doesn't overflow. The funnel just drains at the same rate over a longer period. Protein behaves the same way. A smaller dose gets absorbed and used quickly. A larger dose digests over a longer window because the stomach slows gastric emptying and the intestine releases amino acids gradually. Muscle tissue keeps incorporating them wave after wave. The "ceiling" in those early studies wasn't a biological saturation point. It was what you see when you stop watching before the larger dose finishes working. Trommelen et al. (2023, Cell Reports Medicine) tested this directly. They randomized 36 recreationally active young men to 0g, 25g, or 100g of milk protein after a 60-minute whole-body resistance session and tracked muscle protein synthesis for twelve hours using a quadruple isotope tracer. In the first four hours, myofibrillar protein synthesis was only about 20% higher after 100g than after 25g. In the four-to-twelve-hour window, that gap widened to roughly 40%. That later window is where the bigger dose actually separates from the smaller one, and it's exactly where every prior dose-response study stopped measuring. The authors also reanalyzed the oxidation data from Moore and Witard and concluded that postprandial amino acid oxidation represents less than 15% of the increment in ingested protein. The paper states it plainly: "Protein ingestion has a negligible impact on whole-body protein breakdown rates or amino acid oxidation rates." Caveats belong in the read. This was young recreationally active men following a single bout of resistance exercise. Not trained athletes, not women, not older adults, not a longitudinal hypertrophy trial. A 2024 Witard commentary in the International Journal of Sport Nutrition and Exercise Metabolism flagged that the finding may not translate to resistance-trained young women with different anabolic kinetics. Practically: you don't need to portion exactly 25-30g of protein every three hours to avoid "wasting" it. Larger meals extend the anabolic window rather than capping it. Distribution across the day still matters for satiety, blood sugar, and hitting your daily target. But the rigid per-meal rule has weaker biology behind it than previously believed. Sources: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19056590/ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24257722/ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27511985/ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38118410/ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38991545/
العربية
@aleabitoreddit Just to put it there as salty comments pile up; me, my mom, and my friend, all with their our owb stories, struggles, and goals -- have gained so much because of you. You literally eased and improved our lives. Your content is beyond exceptional and I hate to ever see that change
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Glad to hear it!
I've went long and wrote thesis posts on about out 15 different stocks that hit 100-1000%+ YTD?
1. $AXTI
2. $AAOI
3. $SIVEF
4. $LITE
5. $IQE
6. $AEHR
7. $CRCL
8. $EWY
9. Unimicron
10. Nitto Boseki
11. $OSS
12. $GDRZF
13. $RPI
14. $SOI
15. $ALRIB
Not including others like $TSEM that are about to hit triple digit returns too in a month.
The amount of hate people like myself get for posting free ideas over the internet is pretty insane TBH.
Starting to make sense why people just set up $20,000 paywalls and sell info to Western institutions instead of helping out salty retail investors (especially over in Europe).
But helps me keep motivated to keep posting with these positive comments.
Jason@Nangjayson
@aleabitoreddit I basically skipped over the March Iran-war market drop while staying heavily exposed to stocks, and still ended up gaining thanks to your picks. Portfolio is up 3x YTD and I’m just some random retail guy from Canada, so I can only imagine how many others you’ve helped. Thank you
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@Yeah_Dave This is me again, this was another good opportunity to buy :)
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@Yeah_Dave Was thinking of buying it yesterday.. definitely was one of my best trades in the past
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$BE continues to be the most under discussed and most wildly expensive stock I keep buying and it just keeps going up.
It is the cheat code for any major data/manufacturing buildout that needs energy ASAP.
The "batteries"/generators use nat gas + chemical reaction (no burning).
Wall St Engine@wallstengine
Bloom Energy $BE expanded its Oracle $ORCL partnership to support up to 2.8 GW of fuel cell deployments for AI and cloud infrastructure, with Oracle already contracting an initial 1.2 GW.
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So private placement is ~9.4% dilution via 40M new shares via Win Semi (3105).
Any other stock I'd be cautious... but last time Win did this, $AVGO took a stake in Win Semi.
And Broadcom became their lead customer.
Maybe T1 semi like $NVDA, given their recent funding of $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR.
There's also a 3 year holding period.
I said before Win Semi is foundational to photonics, humanoids, and space (eg. SpaceX) and it's likely another T1 customer using them long term.
It's nuanced but actually bullish.
layyy@sunmingjun4
@aleabitoreddit 3105 Win Semiconductors Corp just announced a private placement today. What’s your take on this? How do you think it impacts the stock price
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@SayNoToTrading Wait did you not part ways from it to buy $FLY almost 4 months ago?
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Don’t think majority of the market picked up on the Jabil and $SIVE partnership yet.
Especially since there’s no formal news, aside from physical leaks from the OFC conference*.
Feel like $310M MC for Jabil’s transceiver light source…
Might be underpricing it.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Sivers < $SIVE / $SIVEF > powering Jabil ($27B MC) < $JBL > 1.6T LRO transcivers. As the laser light source. Is by far the biggest news from $NVDA GTC for Sivers ($280M MC) today... in history. Jabil brings in about $30B+ revenue from end users like $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $META. As well as OEMs like $NVDA, Arista, $AVGO, and Cisco. Especially after acquiring $INTC SiPH optical transceiver business, they're Tier 1 in the space. Sivers powering Jabil as the CW DFB laser source for Silicon Photonics and CPO and hyperscaler supply chains: At a $280M MC is incredible, and they're one of the most unknown yet highest potential company I've seen in the photonics sector so far. And the news from $NVDA GTC just cemented this thesis further. I think they genuinely have a shot at becoming the next $LITE.
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