Alphahunter

How most #polymarket dreams begin...

70 prediction-market startups already. Event Horizon just mapped the whole thing. Appreciate the view from above. liquidity coming for the rest of us still rawdogging manual trades. eventhorizon.substack.com/p/introducing-…

@tomthomas90 Yeah exactly. Those outliers are what keep the bets fair over time. In the moment though it’s a straight firehose to the face. Four in one over is savage.

@Ian82644591 Got filled a couple of minutes before play resumed. Set exit at break even (had backed the favourite) thinking it would swing in that direction almost immediately. They lost four wickets in first over which is unheard of :) lost it

Sharing the good and bad on Polymarket. Biggest loss to date was taken in the cricket live market - $5,700. I tried to chase LP rewards at half time and got stuck with a 56 cent position, listed it at breakeven and held too long. The leading team (who I had backed) lost four of their wickets in the first over which is almost unheard of :) Certain I'll make it back but it's another lesson learned - live markets are dangerous. I have played them three times and been burned twice (other time was Bayern Munich scoring in the 46th minute against Real Madrid).

@theparuchh This is fucking fascinating. Watching an edge erode in real time now that the full playbook is out. Proper arms race. Love it.

The day of the wank maggot

Scene 7 he was a tub of Vaseline. Scene 8 he's a monk. Same man. Different Tuesday. 8 of 500.

How most #polymarket dreams begin...

Wasting time like a proper wank maggot with GITHUB rabbit holes.

Out the excrement pipe today. Missed clean tennis edges because I was glued to baseball I don’t understand. Quasi vibe coded a dashboard alert — sounds like a pig fucking R2-D2. Still manual knife fighting, just more focused.

@Polymarket Page says they’re 96.7% accurate close to resolution. My session today: missed six clean ones while ‘researching’, then took one I shouldn’t have and got out quick. The data checks out. Checklist still leaking

Read more about Polymarket's historical accuracy: polymarket.com/accuracy

BREAKING: Democrats projected to seize control of both chambers of Congress this November.

THIS IS INSANE 🚨 This whale is down $857,000+ after going all in on Orbán A position that was once worth nearly $1M is now down to just $10,000 and he still hasn’t sold... What is he waiting for?

@SteveRuddock ... Just found the newsletter... Add one more sub to number above.

The Straight to the Point substack newsletter will be 1.5 years old next week, and the support I've received has been overwhelming. 18 months later, the newsletter is closing in on 1,000,000 total views and broke 5k views per day twice this week. I took a big risk traveling down this path, leaving a really good, full-time job with benefits to start the newsletter from square 1. The early sponsorship support from companies like @UnderdogFantasy and @GeoComply, people like @OPReport, who supported the project in a number of ways from Day 1, and the 150+ of you who have upgraded to a paid subscription provided me with some hope. The subscriber list (now over 3,500 and growing by about 200 per month) allowed me to secure more sponsors, including @sporttrade_app, who signed up for a year-long commitment and allowed me to start a podcast, grow my consulting business, and add premium products. What I've learned over the last year and a half is this: Aim big and work hard. If anyone wants to further support Straight to the Point, you can like, subscribe, and comment on my posts, as well as upgrade to a paid subscription. I still have some sponsorship slots available, too.

It kinda went like this... x.com/Ian82644591/st…

Songkran hangover. Woke at 6:30, watched baseball I don’t understand, missed 6 clean trades “researching”, then took one I had no business in. Pulled out fast. Net: -$4.52 and a headache. Still learning what I don’t know. @Polymarket

First T20 cricket trade. Late wickets, quick fingers. Bought Indonesia at 89.3 instead of waiting for 91. Sweden defended and won. Checklist broken. Process sloppy. Still green.

Blaydes got battered. Thought he’d recover. He didn’t. Puked out of my position at 29¢ instead of riding it to zero. That’s the grind today. Shot to the nut sack.