IllicitFlowsObs

Spain under fire as major dark fleet exposure point in Europe, criticized while France seizes shadow tankers. Inconsistent coastal enforcement lets Russian illicit oil flows persist. Highlights systemic gaps in EU sanctions regime against shadow fleet logistics.

EU steps up pressure: European Commission & EMSA now tracking Russian shadow fleet flag-swapping in real time. Moving beyond symbolic actions to target deceptive practices that keep illicit Russian oil flowing. Sanctions enforcement evolving to match fleet adaptation.

Philippines BOC ramps up oil smuggling surveillance as Middle East tensions rise. Direct response to potential spillover from sanctioned flows and shadow fleet activity in Asian routes. Local enforcement tightening could raise costs for illicit Iranian/Venezuelan crude transits.

Satellite capture (Apr 6): 8 illicit STS transfers off Malaysia, 5x Iranian crude direct to China via dark fleet tankers (falsely flagged, stateless, UANI blacklisted). No ports, no oversight. Shadow fleet continues evading sanctions in Asian waters, keeping illicit flows alive despite enforcement pressure.

We mapped the exact regulatory capture dynamics we have been tracking in global oil trading, how political influence, lobbying, and fragmented oversight quietly undermine sanctions and compliance. The Lebanon fuel procurement networks are a clear case study. Love to Hear your thoughts! Full breakdown here: x.com/IllicitFlowsOb…

I wouldn't be surprised if USA also gives Ukraine intel & help to take out Russia's gas & oil infra, plus Russia's shadow fleet. USA could want to be only major producer of gas in the world. Fun fact: Helium is a crucial side product of natural gas extraction process. EUV lithography machines are used to make the most advanced semiconductors in the world and they need helium to cool down the laser, which is etching the chips. USA obviously doesn't want China to develop their EUV machines as it has successfully coerced ASML from Netherlands not to sell to mainland China. TSMC (Taiwan), Samsung and SK Hynix from South Korea are of course using EUV lithography machines by ASML. Now they will need to rely on USA for Helium = tight leash on their economies. USA is the largest natural gas and oil producer in the world. Russia has the largest proven natural gas reserves, Iran has the second largest, and also 3rd largest proven oil reserves. Play out #2 and #3 with war and then USA has near monopoly in the market. It is obvious that USA is playing on who controls the energy game and the aim is nothing less than total world domination.

The US and Israel are carrying out intense bombing raids on Iran’s South Pars petrochemical complex, which accounts for 85% of the country’s production in this sector. The damage is massive, yet the complex covers 54,000 hectares and would require many days of sustained heavy bombing to achieve its total destruction. Even so, the losses are certainly in the range of tens of billions of dollars in destroyed infrastructure and lost profits.

We mapped the exact regulatory capture dynamics we have been tracking in global oil trading, how political influence, lobbying, and fragmented oversight quietly undermine sanctions and compliance. The Lebanon fuel procurement networks are a clear case study. Love to Hear your thoughts! Full breakdown here: x.com/IllicitFlowsOb…

@calvinfroedge Everyone knows that there is shadow fleet + radar off + pair ships slips through. Citrini conclusion -> traffic is picking up -> long risk. ....

So let me get this straight...Citrini sends some guy to Oman with $15k, he promptly gets arrested and questioned, and now Wall Street's conclusion is that Hormuz closure isn't a big deal?

We mapped the exact regulatory capture dynamics we have been tracking in global oil trading, how political influence, lobbying, and fragmented oversight quietly undermine sanctions and compliance. The Lebanon fuel procurement networks are a clear case study. Love to Hear your thoughts! Full breakdown here: x.com/IllicitFlowsOb…

@HimjaParekh Yes ! And now Russians have Iranians fully allied with them. Brits dont want to give away Shadow Oil fleet money passing through London banking channels. The Chinese wont mind Petro Yuan toll on Hormuz. Interests converge in Iran to give US EMPIRE its Suez in Hormuz !

In 1953- Iran nationalisation of Oil was on account of unfairness of the British Empire. 1979 was simply the replacement of their puppet. Today decades on, UK flexed muscle via insurance and called a 40 member meeting to mediate. History is full of interesting anecdotes. It is difficult to say is a new circle starting or is an old one simply closing. The Soviets always wanted a foothold in Iran - it was divided via influence. Had Stalin not been affected by other things- who knows what would have come to pass!

We mapped the exact regulatory capture dynamics we have been tracking in global oil trading, how political influence, lobbying, and fragmented oversight quietly undermine sanctions and compliance. The Lebanon fuel procurement networks are a clear case study. Love to Hear your thoughts! Full breakdown here: x.com/IllicitFlowsOb…

The Defense Forces struck the infrastructure of the port of Novorossiysk, through which Russia exports up to 20% of its total oil volumes. Also, Ukrainian drones hit the Kalibr cruise missile carrier — the frigate “Admiral Makarov”.

We mapped the exact regulatory capture dynamics we have been tracking in global oil trading, how political influence, lobbying, and fragmented oversight quietly undermine sanctions and compliance. The Lebanon fuel procurement networks are a clear case study. Love to Hear your thoughts! Full breakdown here: x.com/IllicitFlowsOb…

Right after @realDonaldTrump’s unhinged expletive-ridden “living in hell” threat, #Israel and US bombed a synagogue in #Tehran. A synagogue that caters for thousands of Jews in #Iran. Just like there are thousands of Christians in #Lebanon and #Palestine regularly abused and killed by the Zionist state. Don’t ask for it to make sense. Observe, absorb and record. x.com/Narjes_Rahmati…

We mapped the exact regulatory capture dynamics we have been tracking in global oil trading, how political influence, lobbying, and fragmented oversight quietly undermine sanctions and compliance. The Lebanon fuel procurement networks are a clear case study. Love to Hear your thoughts! Full breakdown here: x.com/IllicitFlowsOb…

If you think Israelis are baby killers or terrorists, you’ve fallen for propaganda. The truth is the Islamists have set up a social media Death Star to feed you lies. And it’s working. Most of these clips are fake, taken from nearby war zones, like Syria and Lebanon. And when they are real, they leave out vital context. The number one reason children get hurt in this conflict is the Islamists are shameless in using them as human shields. This is the actual war crime. The anti Israel democrats are the equivalent of Fox News obsessives. There’s a selective storyline, cherry picked with misleading things to emotionally activate the audience, making them rabid and detached from reality. I know that’s hard to hear, but it’s the truth. You should look in the mirror and ask yourself while you’re so eager to believe the worst things about Jews.

This maps the exact regulatory capture dynamics I’ve been tracking in global oil trading, how political influence, lobbying, and fragmented oversight quietly undermine sanctions and compliance. The Lebanon fuel procurement networks are a clear case study. Love to Hear your thoughts. Full breakdown here: x.com/IllicitFlowsOb…

I know Iran already knows this, but… You absolutely cannot trust the United States or Israel. That could be the whole tweet. But I mean you cannot trust them to keep their word. They absolutely will not abide by a multi-step ceasefire plan. Look at Gaza and Lebanon. Do not accept such a plan. Your instinct to have one strong binding agreement that is fool proof is correct. As much as the world will try to pressure you into a dishonest, multi step ceasefire, that’s truly no deal at all.

This maps the exact regulatory capture dynamics I’ve been tracking in global oil trading, how political influence, lobbying, and fragmented oversight quietly undermine sanctions and compliance. The Lebanon fuel procurement networks are a clear case study. Full breakdown here: x.com/IllicitFlowsOb…

🚨 BREAKING ​An officer committed suicide in Tel Aviv today. ​A few days after returning from Southern Lebanon, he went to the top floor of an apartment building and threw himself off. His name is Yohanan Eliyahu.

This maps the exact regulatory capture dynamics I’ve been tracking in global oil trading, how political influence, lobbying, and fragmented oversight quietly undermine sanctions and compliance. The Lebanon fuel procurement networks are a clear case study. Full breakdown here: x.com/IllicitFlowsOb…

🇮🇱🇱🇧Israeli strikes just leveled entire neighborhoods in Naqoura, one of the key towns in southern Lebanon. This is also where the UN observation mission has its headquarters. They say Israel destroyed 17 of their surveillance cameras in the attacks.

Three dark fleet tankers loaded with Venezuelan crude are now stranded after Maduro’s exit, exposing the fragility of long-running sanctions evasion routes. As Venezuela disentangles from illicit oil flows, this limbo underscores how regime change can jam shadow fleet logistics, without erasing the vessels or networks entirely. Key test for post-sanctions oil trade.

@KobeissiLetter Tehran isn't proposing peace; it’s attempting to legalize maritime extortion. Turning an international strait into a $2 million-per-ship protection racket is a direct attack on global trade.

BREAKING: Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan." Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz 10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations President Trump's "deadline" for a peace deal with Iran is 25 hours away.

Regulatory Capture and the Limits of Oversight in Global Oil Trading How political influence, lobbying, and fragmented governance challenge sanctions enforcement and energy market regulation #lebanon #oil #bbenergy @illicitflowsobs/regulatory-capture-and-the-limits-of-oversight-in-global-oil-trading-debe0f5e345c" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@illicitflowso…

Saudi Arabia has increased its official selling price (OSP) to a record high. The state-owned Saudi oil giant told refineries in Asian it would charge a premium of $19.5 a barrel over the regional benchmark for sales of its flagship Arab Light. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Read more on our blog @illicitflowsobs/from-sanctions-to-seizures-the-oil-trade-has-entered-its-interdiction-era-a8018f8f75fd" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@illicitflowso…

The takeaway: Illicit oil trade is not disappearing. But the rules governing how it moves are being rewritten in real time.

Oil sanctions are changing. They are no longer just about lists, insurance bans, or financial pressure. They are starting to be enforced at sea.