Illiquid Insights

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Illiquid Insights

Illiquid Insights

@IlliquidInsight

Analyzing private equity, private credit & institutional capital 📊 Join the weekly email list!

Katılım Ocak 2025
504 Takip Edilen4.5K Takipçiler
Illiquid Insights
Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight·
@FinRiff Good point. When you factor in Base Rate, the peak yield was '22. But directionally same story, downhill since then.
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FinRiff@FinRiff·
@IlliquidInsight the 7.6 was on near zero sofr. all in yield in 2025 per cliffwater still printed ~10 since base rates ran higher. cov lite share and pik income climbing are where the race actually shows
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Illiquid Insights
Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight·
Private credit spreads peaked at 7.6% in 2020. They've fallen to 5% today. The space is too crowded. Too much capital is driving a race to the bottom in pricing.
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Illiquid Insights
Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight·
A wave of distress is coming: • PE PortCos are struggling • Software assets have cratered • Bad macro environment is crushing demand Restructuring is going to get busy. Check out the RX primer ⬇️
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Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight·
@harneetk__ Totally agree. I see the investing acumen as different than “execution” (deal stuff day-to-day, modeling, etc). AI will never make investing decisions.
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harneet k
harneet k@harneetk__·
it’s premature to say that *execution skills* in finance are irrelevant due to AI. alpha was never in the ppt/modeling, it is in understanding businesses, building a thesis, being contrarian when the world is consensus. the AI can build the model but you still have to make a bet and take the risk.
Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight

Success in finance is all about relationships and sourcing going forward. AI has made execution skills (powerpoint, modeling) irrelevant.

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Illiquid Insights
Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight·
@geekopediax Good point. Outflows drove a big drop in net funding. May help bring spreads back up a bit.
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geekopedia@geekopediax·
@IlliquidInsight That race to the bottom already hit a wall. Huge software exposure pushed bad PIK loans to 6.4% late last year, while retail BDC redemptions spiked to 4.8%. Now that major banks are tightening advance rates, the game is shifting from chasing yield to managing liquidity.
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Illiquid Insights
Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight·
@BoringBiz_ This chart shows how bad the EU has fallen behind in tech and innovation. The entire economy is suffocating from excess regulation.
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Boring_Business@BoringBiz_·
If it wasn’t clear already, I think this AI race has fully revealed the stagnation that taken place in Europe over the last couple of decades The world is going through a massive technological revolution, and not a single consequential company in the space is based out of Europe Truly boggles my mind how one generation of leaders just stripped the entire continent’s ability to compete
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Illiquid Insights
Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight·
Success in finance is all about relationships and sourcing going forward. AI has made execution skills (powerpoint, modeling) irrelevant.
Brett Caughran@FundamentEdge

A big pivot from Ken Griffin on AI: “Number one is, in the last few months, there has been a step change in the productivity of the AI toolkit. It is profoundly more powerful than it was just nine months ago. And for us at Citadel, that has allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases for AI. And it has been really interesting to watch, to be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with masters and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days. These are not these are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high skilled jobs being, I'm going to pick a word, automated by agentic AI. And I gotta tell you, I went home one Friday actually fairly depressed by this because you could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society. When you witness it in your own four walls, when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks, it's like, wow, like that's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls.” This echoes my own experience with agents and the conversations I am having with students, friends & clients. The toolkit has dramatically transformed and it feels like in finance, for the first time, AI is real.

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Illiquid Insights
Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight·
Private credit is rotating. Direct lending fundraising fell ~25%. Opportunistic, secondaries and specialty finance are all up. Investors see a distressed cycle coming.
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SaaSquatch Jackson
SaaSquatch Jackson@DogsAndSciFi·
@IlliquidInsight Railroads and fiber built ahead of demand. AI compute is supply-constrained right now. Different equation entirely.
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Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight·
Past capex megacycles (railroads, fiber) both ended in massive overcapacity and bankruptcies. Meanwhile, everyone is piling into data centers.
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Century Egg Credit
Century Egg Credit@yummyCenturyEgg·
$CHTR $T $CABO $T is super aggressive in my neighborhood with their fiber offering. 5 different teams knocking on doors, one after the other over the span of 2 weeks if you don't take their fiber package. Was told they already took 30% of the neighborhood in 2 weeks. I don't know if I believe that, but no doubt they will offer fiber at any price to take customers from $CHTR/cable.
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Century Egg Credit@yummyCenturyEgg

$CHTR $T Two gentlemen from $T just knocked on my door. Matched my $30 a month Spectrum broadband cable service with 1G symmetrical fiber package, and gave me 2 months of free service. Also offered to lower the price even further if I move my mobile service provider to $T. That's a good deal. I ask myself - if Charter were to knock on my door, what kind of package would make me switch to cable...At the end of the day, Charter is competing like a red-headed stepchild with its coax and MVNO mobile package.

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Illiquid Insights
Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight·
@BigJohn043 The government is hooked on deficit spending. Only way to keep it going is printing more money.
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John Caple
John Caple@BigJohn043·
This is the legacy of Jerome Powell. He grew M2 over 20% for the first time in US History and then when inflation arrived it was transitory rather than monetary. FWIW, the black line is M2 growth and the tan line is inflation....
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Illiquid Insights
Illiquid Insights@IlliquidInsight·
Investment banking before AI: 3 deals + 1 pitch at the same time. Investment banking after AI: 6 deals + 1 pitch packed with unnecessary analysis. More efficiency just means more work.
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