The Golf Investor

My reaction to my family and freinds when they did not invest in $ABCL In Chad Hansen we trust @JackPrescottX @iHooghvorst

@JackPrescottX Literally

AbCellera shareholders:

@JackPrescottX Dr Chad Hansen is going to hit that home run for us

Jeff Bezos letter to shareholders ( 2015 )

@BCValueInvestor Dr Chad Hansen

$ABCL

@JackPrescottX Bought more today

The battle of Thermopylae continues

@JackPrescottX Hell yes

@JackPrescottX @tyler_bosserman @AbCelleraBio Yes

I noticed that comp too. Not to mention, Regeneron for example had a peak market cap of like $130B+ back in 2024… and that doesn’t account for what they can grow to in the future. I don’t think anyone can say it’s “pumping” to acknowledge that AbCellera can 100x from here. Management had made it clear that their intention is to become a big player among the giants of Regeneron and the like.. One can disagree, but they cannot deny that this is the goal. As people know, there’s risk. But there’s good reason to believe they can achieve this goal over the long run if the thesis plays out accordingly. All one had to do is run the numbers… it’s simple math.

$ABCL This line in the recent @AbCelleraBio shareholder letter by Carl Hansen basically says it all: “AbCellera’s vision is to build a global biotech company that can repeatedly discover, develop, and commercialize breakthrough medicines for patients worldwide.” This tells me they may commercialize ABCL635 themselves if we get good readout for Phase 2 and it ultimately gets approved. I personally think this is the best path forward long term. Why split profits with another company 50/50 if they can potentially get 100% of them? This also tells me they don’t intend on being a one-hit-wonder. They intend on becoming major player on global stage. He lists three companies, Regeneron, Alnylam and Vertex, which have market caps ranging from 40-100b. This tells me what they are aiming for. Assuming no dilution this is roughly a 40-100x from here. This is my type of company. A company with a technology advantage that has potential to make the hard things look easy. Limited downside and near unlimited upside. Needless to say, I’m long and strong! If you want to read letter yourself: d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001703057…

@JackPrescottX @Algo_Stoney Do you have link to full letter ?

@JackPrescottX @Algo_Stoney My handsome stud lfggggggggggg Bought more today Can’t get enough prior to May 11

$ABCL AbCellera CEO Carl Hansen writes a five page letter to shareholders citing Peter Thiel and the zero to one mindset, long term aspirations, and more. This letter feels like he knows the company has a retail following now and he’s writing directly to us. “At AbCellera we run our business with an emphasis on disciplined capital allocation and long-term thinking, and with a foundation of scientific and technological excellence. If we stay this course, I believe AbCellera can one day join the ranks of the iconic companies that are admired by their peers and that have delivered enormous value to patients, to society, and to their shareholders. That is the future we are after.” “As the largest shareholder, I have the majority of my personal wealth in AbCellera and have travelled this path with you all.” I continue to be thrilled to be a shareholder in this company, and have full confidence in Carl as a leader. Wow…

@JackPrescottX God dammit jack I need more shares prior to this earnings call !!!!!!

Let’s do a pricing exercise for where $ABCL could be sitting at in ~2030. I see a scenario where we could realistically 10x from here. Currently, AbCellera has 4 molecules in their internal pipeline. ABCL635, ABCL575, ABCL688, and ABCL386 The main focus on this exercise will be on ABCL635. ABCL635 is a GPCR-targeting antibody that is currently in phase 2 of clinical trials. Management has indicated that phase 1 results were strong, which is why they quickly moved into phase 2. Phase 1 readouts will be released on May 11, and phase 2 readouts will be released in Q3. Hansen said “The most important data disclosure in 2026 will be the Phase 2 readout of ABCL635, which is anticipated for Q3. This readout has potential to be highly derisking and to tell us whether or not we are likely to have our first winner.” If phase 2 results are strong, I believe they’ll move the molecule into phase 3. Perhaps there’s potential where they could seek to partner on the molecule instead for a significant up-front payment and royalties stake, but my anticipation is that they’d seek to take it to the market on their own due to the following statement Carl Hansen made in Q4 ‘23: “Considering the potential development across multiple indications, we believe it is likely that maximizing the value of [ABCL575] will require engagement with a large partner for later-stage trials and commercialization. This stands in contrast to ABCL635, where pending positive clinical data, we believe it may be better for us to advance it independently." Therefore, I believe AbCellera would seek to take 635 all the way to the market on their own, meaning they’d capture 100% of the revenue generated by the drug. If the alternative scenario happens and they choose to partner in exchange for an up-front payment & royalties, that could be excellent as well, but for the sake of this exercise, we will assume they take it to the market on their own. __________________________________________ Andrew Booth recently noted that the company views the TAM of non-hormonal options for the treatment of hot flashes is ~$6 Billion. However, the company notes that “~NOVEL~ non-hormonal treatments for VMS are estimated to become a $2 B+ market opportunity”. Carl Hansen has said “we can easily make either a bottoms-up or top-down case for a market opportunity of over $2 billion in peak sales; total, I should say, TAM of $2 billion.” Based on this, my interpretation is that the NK3R class (which 635 is part of) represents $2 B out of the entire $6 B non-hormonal treatment market for hot flashes that Booth cited. $2 B for 635 would be the peak sales right now if they took the whole market of NK3R for hot flashes. It would compete with some small molecule treatments still. But the goal is 635 as an antibody therapy would be superior, turning a significant portion of the $2 B NK3R market for hot flashes into AbCellera’s sales. I believe that’s the bull case. The ultra-bull case would be that 635 eats into some of the broader $6 B market of other non-hormonal treatments as well. Back to clinical trials, assuming phase 2 results are strong in Q3 of this year and the molecule moves into phase 3, I think it’s reasonable to assume it could take around 4 years or so for phase 3 to be completed. Under the premise that ABCL635 gets approved, that puts us on a timeline for around 2030-31. Let’s assume AbCellera only captures half of the peak $2 B sales/year they believe is possible for 635. That’s $1 B in revenue a year. Eli Lily is nearly a $1 T market cap company and trades at 14.75x sales currently. I think it would be reasonable to assume AbCellera, a platform antibody discovery biotech that’s ~100x smaller, could trade at 14x sales if 635 is approved. That would place the company at a $14 Billion market cap. Remember, that’s ONLY from running numbers on 635 getting approved. The company noted that they’d also be running separate clinical trials for 635 in oncology patients, which I’m not sure is taken into consideration with the peak $2 B sales estimates. Not only that, but if 635 gets approved, it’s a very significant validation of their platform’s capabilities. Especially since 635 is a GPCR-targeting antibody and it’s historically been virtually impossible to target GPCRs with antibodies. They have another GPCR targeting molecule, ABCL688, ready to go on the pipeline. They're seeking to unlock a whole new class of antibodies. That's a big deal IMO. We’ve only been discussing the company’s internal pipeline so far. It’s also important to note that management has said on many occasions that they believe the market is assigning $0 to the partnership programs. I believe that if we start seeing positive movement on the internal pipeline, that will make the market reconsider how it values the partnership pipeline as well. All of these additional aspects serve as compensating factors that were not taken into consideration for how we arrived to 14x sales on $1 B in revenue and a $14 B market cap by 2030. Maybe 14x sales is aggressive to some. But with these compensating factors included, I don't believe its irrational. Hence, I believe the $14 B market cap scenario is possible. That would put the stock at around $46 assuming zero dilution. Thats an 11x from today’s price. Assuming minimal dilution, which we’ve had so far, and we’d still be in that 10x ballpark. The company is sitting on ~700M in cash. I believe minimal dilution from here is possible. And again, that’s without the market pricing in any of the other compensating factors we discussed. In addition, this doesn't take into consideration the potential for other up-front payments in the meantime. AbCellera entered into an expanded partnership with AbbVie in early 2025 for T Cell engagers. Last year, AbbVie paid Ichnos Glenmark Innovation (IGI) approximately $700 M up front for a partnership on a tri-specific antibody, with up to $1.225B in milestone payments and double-digit royalties. _________________________________________________ All of this is to say that I believe it's very possible the stock could increase 10x from here within the next 4 or so years assuming ABCL635 gets approved. This is not a forecast or promise. I'm just running the numbers here. Everyone must draw their own conclusion. A lot can go wrong in biotech. We saw what happened with the recent readouts in the OX40 space, and how AbCellera noted they're not going to move 575 into phase 2. Things can go wrong. If there's a hiccup in clinical trials with 635 or it flat-out fails along the way, that would probably derail the hopes of a $14 B market cap by 2030. There's areas where I believe its fair to pushback.. Will 635 actually be that differentiated? What if other competition comes on the scene in the meantime and eats at potential market-share? What if phase 3 is more expensive than anticipated and there's more dilution than expected? And of course, ~statistically~ the overall odds of approval for antibodies are something like 30% best-case (although I'm biased to believe that AbCellera will have a much higher chance with 635). But overall, I remain very optimistic about the future of this company; especially after reviewing every aspect of their tech stack and how intentional they've been in integrating best-in-world capabilities for their antibody discovery platform. _________________________________________________ As a parting note, I want to reiterate that none of this is a ~price target~. I don't really believe in putting out price targets. I cant time the market or predict what will happen. I can only run numbers based on different scenarios that I believe are possible. And on that note, running the different scenarios doesn't stop with 635 getting approved. When you look out far into the future... 10 - 15 years from now, it can get really crazy. See for yourself. While acknowledging the unknown unknowns and risk that comes along with biotech, I also believe there is enormous upside in this company and stock if they execute. One can allocate capital very lightly here and still be exposed to huge long-term upside while minimizing risk. I personally have the stock making up approx 18% of my portfolio, which is aggressive by normal standards. I believe these next 6-12 months will be very telling for what we can expect to see in the next few years... and these next few years will be very telling for what we can expect to see in the coming decades. Anyway, this is just my opinion. Run the numbers under your own scenarios. Do the math.

@JackPrescottX @AbCelleraBio Amazing 😂

@ImmersedGolf @AbCelleraBio 🗿

$ABCL Lineage Biosciences, which was acquired by @AbCelleraBio, was licensing their tech out of Stephen Quake’s lab. Stephen Quake aka Carl Hansen’s mentor. Stephen Quake aka AbCellera’s most recent addition to their board. Quake has his his name written all over AbCellera. He was a great addition company’s board. And the acquisition of Lineage and RepSeq was a great addition to the tech stack (as explained in the quoted post below).

@JackPrescottX @AbCelleraBio LFGGGG

@JackPrescottX @LocktimusSlime 🤣🤣🤣🤣

@ImmersedGolf @LocktimusSlime

$ABCL I am now more convinced than ever that AbCellera’s edge comes from its end-to-end integration of many technologies, with the microfluidics hardware serving as the centerpiece. However, it’s not the hardware alone that defines the moat: Looking at the microfluidics IP, there’s a lot of critical components that make it powerful such as nanoliter sized wells for maximum concentration of antibodies under observation per cell, cell retention, functional screening, methods for efficient single cell recovery, methods for very high throughput screening, methods to ensure long term cell culture like addressing issues with evaporation, etc… all of which are important. But I don’t think that in itself is 100% unique to only AbCellera. From what I’ve learned online, it looks like Bruker’s optofluidic single cell screening hardware they sell is very competitive in these capabilities. And although AbCellera won the lawsuit against them and now gets royalties for worldwide sales on that hardware, it still means similar hardware is available to others (under license). Then again, maybe there’s unknown unknowns with aspects that aren’t covered in patents. But what I do think seems to be true is that AbCellera stands alone in having the full-stack end-to-end integration of the technologies that address various bottlenecks in antibody discovery... and its all kept in-house (many of which are best-in-world technologies, or close to, according to management). Again, the microfluidics hardware is the centerpiece that makes all of this possible, but the parts that surround it are just as important ... kind of like “a chain is only as strong as its weakest link”. This goes from: - The transgenic mice that enables the company to reliably identify and pull B-cells from the entire cell population along with a way to spot them fluorescently, - To methods for cell culture and functional screening at the single cell level, and efficient recovery of single cells, - To methods for bulk sequencing through RepSeq that, when combined with single-cell data, provide an entire map of the immune response, - To their hidden variables patent for efficiently predicting antibody competition for binding to epitopes, - To using the same microfluidics hardware for manufacturing the cell lines. - And now they’re using this tech stack to go after areas such as GPCRs and bi-specifics. Additionally, there is impressive breadth within their tech stack. For example, in their “Highly parallel assays for simultaneous identification of antibody sequences and binding partners”, methods are described that enable them to take synthetic libraries and essentially screen them as if they were from a natural immune response… a method that they probably don’t use that often but nonetheless still exists in case they ever need it. Some companies compete on individual parts of AbCellera’s tech stack. But none, as far as I know, compete across the entire stack. And it’s this in-house end-to-end integration that is required to close the loop and let the data flywheel spin, continually improving their antibody discovery capabilities with each program. In addition to the technology, AbCellera also has access to world-class talent in its own backyard. Combine this talent with the end-to-end integration of the technology and infrastructure such as the newly built GMP facility, and you have the "AbCellera Engine". This is my main takeaway from the article below.

@JackPrescottX @LocktimusSlime Yes (gigachad meme)

@LocktimusSlime LMAO 🤣🤣 Bro is jacked, too hahahahahaha. He’s fr a gigachad

@devineni6 @JackPrescottX @RealKianOh1 He will

@JackPrescottX @ImmersedGolf @RealKianOh1 Rock Solid Conviction .. Hope Carl delivers one day for all of us and for health of people 👍

AbCellera’s approach of combining single cell analysis data with RepSeq:

@JackPrescottX @RealKianOh1 Yes exactly the catalyst is readouts Massive buying until then

@ImmersedGolf @RealKianOh1 I feel you. I keep telling myself I’m done buying shares and then end up buying more 🤣. Been like this for 2 years straight now. Thinking about making one final push before readouts EOY.

@JackPrescottX @BCValueInvestor Yes

@BCValueInvestor Seriously. Forever thankful that we have the ability to invest in companies run by geniuses hahaha - they do the heavy lifting for the rest of us. Thanks Carl

@JackPrescottX @PalantirTech

I would love to see a @PalantirTech biotech company partner attend AIPCon one of these days: “To accelerate exploration and discovery of molecules, proteins, and genes, a biotech startup needed to relate high volumes of internal and external data — including millions of dose response data points across disparate compound libraries and terabytes of experimental images. Handling and analysis of this data was spread across different teams — including hit identification researchers, chemists, data scientists, and lab operators — impeding fast decision-making and raising questions as to how certain conclusions were reached. Additionally, a fragmented layer of tooling made it difficult to replicate experiments and trace data lineage from experiments from beginning to end.” SOLUTION “The customer uses Foundry as a central brain that coordinates exploration, analysis, and decision making across systems and data sources to expedite existing research processes and fuel cross-organizational collaboration. Using Foundry, our customer has created a platform that (1) centralizes the data and workflows to structure knowledge, (2) performs rapid and effective hit prioritization, and (3) codifies a standardized set of terms for research to ease data retrieval, streamline experiments, and automate analysis.” Also… wen $ABCL x $PLTR announcement

Of course