Scipio

JD Vance lays out “must haves” for Iran deal, including need for Tehran to hand over enriched uranium and “conclusive” commitment to not develop nuclear weapons. “We have the cards,” he tells Brett Baier.

The problem a lot of Iranian analysts face is putting aside their own hatred of the regime to maintain objectivity. Here Karim shares Robin Brooks making the same failed predictions he made about Russia. They don’t describe reality, they want to wishcast their reality into being.

And once that happens, the logic is predictable: failure → fear of defeat → escalation The Escalation Trap.

North Sea Crude spot price just hit a new ALL TIME HIGH at ~149$ above 2008 peak ⚠️ Whoever is persisting in suppressing oil future prices to the current asinine low level is manufacturing the biggest volatility time bomb right in the heart of financial markets

Abbas Araghchi: “Why We Insist on Uranium Enrichment” “Why have we insisted, and continue to insist, on uranium enrichment? Why won’t we surrender it, even under the threat of war? Because no one has the right to dictate what we may or may not possess. This is rooted in a fundamental principle: the rejection of domination. Enrichment is our right under international law, and whether we choose to exercise it is our business alone. For years we’ve been told, ‘You have no right to enrich; enrichment must be zero.’ Why? ‘Because we’re concerned,’ they say. If you’re concerned, we’re prepared to address that. Have questions? We’ll answer them. Is trust lacking? We’ll build it. But no one has the right to say, ‘You cannot have this because we don’t want you to.’ This is the heart of our resolve: we have stood firm in defense of our own rights. Enrichment matters, but what matters even more is demonstrating that the Islamic Republic of Iran takes orders from no one and submits to no domination. If there are doubts about the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program, we are ready to answer them. The only path forward is diplomacy. Every other path has been tried and has led nowhere. Negotiations will only succeed when the rights of the Iranian people are recognized and respected, not granted, because our rights are already legitimate in and of themselves. What we ask is simply that they be respected.” In my view, Araghchi’s statement is more than a dignified reply to the United States. It is a rebuke of the condescending posture the West has held toward Muslims for nearly a century. It is a declaration that the era of bullying and imposed values is over. If Iran emerges from this with its honor intact, God willing, neither the United States nor the Muslim world will be what they once were.

Second Iranian crude carrier has arrived in India…. Reliance is the only company in the world which is currently refining Russian, Iranian, US, and Venezuelan oil simultaneously, in the same facility…. This is next-level danda pro max attitude of Mota Bhai 🫡🫡

Ships with Iran Oil Anchor off India as Trump Announces Blockade: BBG

Sure, US naval blockade may negate Iran’s tollboothing of Strait of Hormuz. But what happens when a friendly-flagged ship, like India, tries to transit—does US turn it back? What does that mean for US-India ties and US ties with other friends like Japan and South Korea? Sticky.

It may be easier to imagine the end of the world than to imagine the end of capitalism. But it may also be easier to imagine the end of capitalism than to imagine the end of the US empire.

Everything continues to develop exactly as expected 🎯 Kind reminder: this is the worst oil supply shock in history, and still, oil futures haven't even come close to the ATH recorded last time back in 2008

Trump and Aragchi both made statements indicating they were close to a deal. This is the real headline. Negotiations will work. Iran will give up their nukes but they will want full normalization, an end to sanctions, and a nonaggression pact. That's a good deal.

WTI Crude before the negotiations were announced: $115 WTI Crude now that things are markedly *worse* than before negotiations were announced: $105

On the Strait of Hormuz: I said it before and I will say it again: Iran’s move to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz ranks among its most strategically reckless decisions. They cannot sustain control over it. Their military position does not allow for prolonged enforcement against determined opposition. More importantly, it was never a credible bargaining chip. Once escalated, it has to be relinquished without meaningful concessions. The only asset that has ever carried real negotiating weight is the nuclear program. The logic behind the move is also flawed. The expectation was to trigger a global economic shock large enough to force a halt in U.S. operations. That outcome has not materialized. Instead, it has accelerated the opposite dynamic. Regional and global actors are now investing in routes and infrastructure designed to bypass the Strait altogether. In trying to turn Hormuz into leverage, Iran is diminishing its long-term strategic value. Very stupid of IRGC.

Israel under my leadership will continue to fight Iran’s terror regime and its proxies, unlike Erdogan who accommodates them and massacred his own Kurdish citizens.

I suspect China will now start supporting Iran with weapons’ deliveries. Really no other plausible way to ensure its interests in the region and they do exist (as opposed to what happened in Ukraine). A dangerous situation

NOW - Vance on Iran: "The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement... We go back to the United States having not come to an agreement."