Dean

Top 5 Holdings now in April 2026: 1) $ACFN 2) $OGD.TO 3) $CCA.AX 4) $MMY.TO 5) $TOT.TO Haven't sold any $PVE.AX & $VIRI.PA but I did sell out of $VAL in the 90s after the acquisition announcement.

@Jack_McClendon mostly peaceful mines

Why are the Iranians laying mines if a peace is upon us?

stole this from Oxford Economics. EM is getting shellacked when you remove TSMC, Samsung and SK Hynix.

Just your average Korean corporate structure

@TeddyGambino Is the deal official?

Trump did an amazing job on the border, tariff wars were an abortion, $150B in refunds on deck. VEZ a huge success, got to give credit but Iran escapade is not just an abject failure, the ME balance of power has shifted, US on the way out.

I was told repeatedly, 3 weeks ago, that Iranian oil storage would fill, can’t shut down oil wells bc of permanent damage. Ulta magas swore the Persians would be on their knees in days, begging for a deal. What happened to this failed narrative? Not just from magas either, I was told the same by a DIA analyst as well. Same guy told me Day 2 of Iran war that oil wouldn’t spike, news priced in and we “have Venezuela”, whatever the fuck that means. Where’s the accountability? Instead, we got a US surrender, a truly dark day in American history.

@orrdavid your japan exposure during an energy crisis is the problem

Those companies are around 9% of loss alone. A bunch of smaller positions similar to those make up all the other lost alpha, too. I don't know what to do when the market is saying I'm wrong on so many longs in unrelated industries. Shorts are way easier for me, I simply risk manage since risk goes up as the position goes against you. With longs, as the position goes against you, risk goes down not up. Especially factor driven moves. So I'll probably just change nothing at all. Very, very strange market since March...

I've been reviewing what's been going wrong for me since March 1st in the hedge fund. I'm personally in a 20% drawdown (-15% after fees), which is particularly bad for me. Usually during tough periods it's my short book causing problems. This time it's not. My shorts are only losing me 11% since then, while I have been 165% gross short and the Russell 2000 (best proxy for my short book) is up 9%. Gross adjusted, my shorts should be down 15%. Plus, my shorts run higher beta so really they should be down 20%. So alpha on shorts has actually been strong. The market did go up real fast, so of course I lost a lot, but I still consider this a big victory. It's the long book where I am getting *killed*. This is so different from past junk meltups. Stocks like $9022, JR Central who's main asset is the famous Shinkansen that links Tokyo with Nagoya, Kyoto and Osaka. This is one of my big losers. This trades for 7x earnings with solid earnings growth.

Btw Koreans pay 0% capital gains tax on domestic stocks. Born to be degens

KRX Avg Daily Trading Value We're reaching an all time high in May of 64T KRW yet some Korean brokerages are still trading at single digit earnings multiples

There is a real risk here of the KOSPI today becoming like the Nikkei in the 80s. Seems like we're still quite far from bubble territory though koreaherald.com/article/107419…

Disappointing quarter for $OGD.TO, but don't think this materially changes the thesis. Stock decline is a buying opportunity. (1/4)🧵

Looking at a Korean microcap with a market cap of 50 billion Won and wondering when Korea is going to reverse split their currency

@Trevornoah youre a special kind of dufus eh?

If I ruled the world...

@ftenergy Let's breech our own sanctions and not reopen our own oil & gas wells. The insanity is boundless.

Total mining equity raised on the TSX is also at record levels on a TTM basis

TSX-V Mining equity raises were 566m CAD in April (175% y/y increase) bringing equity raises on a TTM basis to a new record - again $FAR.TO $OGD.TO $MDI.TO $GEO.TO

@koreavaluehunt what kind of money manager is possibly down 23% ytd

I told a woman at a dinner party last week that I owned 47 Korean small cap deep value stocks, and she asked me, with genuine concern, if I was being held hostage by a North Korean intelligence operation. I said no, I was being held hostage by the mathematical certainty that a forklift bearing manufacturer in Busan trading at 0.3x net cash is going to re-rate when the founder’s daughter, who runs a hot yoga studio in Seoul, finally inherits the shares and sells the entire company to a Singaporean private equity fund in a single afternoon. She nodded slowly, the way you nod at a man who has just told you his cat is the reincarnation of his accountant. Her husband, who works at a hedge fund and is down 23% on the year, asked me what my edge was, and I told him my edge was being the only person at the entire party who could pronounce “Gyeonggi-do,” which is technically not true but felt true in the moment. I have not been invited back, and I have, in the three weeks since, made more money on a single Korean cement company than the host makes in a year, which is, as it has always been in every great deep value trade in history, the entire reason the math works.

Koreans are surrendering life insurance policies to buy SK hynix, Insurance surrenders at the top 3 life insurers jumped 16% last quarter. Savings bank deposits fell below 100 trillion won for the first time in 4 years. Commercial bank time deposits dropped 12 trillion won since February. The entire financial system is being rerouted into 2 semiconductor stocks. When new money into a rally comes not from income but from liquidating safety nets, that is how the end of every cycle looks man, this is crazy ..... Investors over 50 now hold 62% of margin loans at Korea top 10 brokerages. Among those in their 60s, margin debt doubled from 3.9 to 8 trillion won in one year. These are people who spent decades in fixed deposits and real estate, now entering a semiconductor rally on borrowed money at record highs. When the KOSPI dropped 19% in March, leveraged investors in their 60s lost 20% on average. The rally recovered. same thing in smaller model happening in India - MTF, i feel this so stupid

$PVE.AX now trading below where it was prior to the Iran war while Dutch TTF prices are still 60%+ higher Inefficient markets

@ToffCap @MikeFritzell where can I listen?

The one & only @MikeFritzell talks Korea(n) this week in KEDM!