InnatS

Does anyone have conviction bets in equities for Robotics? I have been going through so many stocks that touch this theme but havent found many interesting plays. Seems to me inevitable Optimus release will be the GPT moment for this theme.

@darran0x Pew Pew

Rate cut projections are mostly a distraction. We've down smaller and fewer cuts for years now. Clearly not restrictive to growth in AI, for ex. Unless you are specifically trading rates or we are in an extreme pivot (a new hiking cycle), the mkt moves on quickly.

@capytalmgmt @P14Capital @illyquid The reaction of the market to their earnings was quite weird. Could you find anything suspicious?

@P14Capital @illyquid 400MW increase in resource capacity in a quarter is quite significant!

Asian DC ideas still on fire.

@gwaxgm @OGDfarmer Lil bits on pump

@InnatS__ @OGDfarmer share plzz

The most interesting microcap on Solana imho, I’m either missing something or upside is wild. No it’s not a sponsored post, I never did one in my life. Fuck yes I bought myself a bag.

@darran0x thanks for the early shout. Long and strong

This is what it looks like when an under-the-radar idea begins to spread. Stock influencers are thrashing over their bags, but the market sees $NOK as a recognizable name they weren’t aware has significant scale in optics. Watch it play out.

@darran0x @pondermint Thanks, appreciate it. Same here, but some positions i'm getting shaky so closed some (partly).

@InnatS__ @pondermint I have some conviction longs with very low cost basis but otherwise cash. I don't have any edge for this kind of environment so it's best to close my marginal ideas and let it play out. I'm the type that would get chopped up here but it's probably great for range traders.

Something to think about when "nothing ever happens" meets oil melting up to $100+.

@darran0x @pondermint Great post, as always. You completely flat here or still in core positions?

@pondermint Probably room for all kinds of fake outs.

@darran0x What you like in nuclear stocks? OKLO and ASPI? SMR maybe too.

Themes update: I opened a few starter positions in themes that I haven't had open for a while. BTC strength is interesting. It improves the relative r/r of taking shots at themes that are already 1-2 months into correction. Trying space, nuclear, and crypto here.

@darran0x I agree. Im still in but the market in general is so ping-pong i have no idea why stuff moves. Anyway.

@InnatS__ I would think FLNC looks very cheap vs. EOSE considering the circumstance re: management.

Depending on the details of the ruling, $FLNC would be a huge beneficiary of tariff relief. It's a multiplier for low margin businesses.

@capytalmgmt Thanks. I got a position earlier. Think market just didnt digest the news with all the war drama.

@InnatS__ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

$VNET China AIDC news Vnet Is Said to Secure Data Center Deal With TikTok Owner ByteDance Vnet Group Inc. has secured a record order to supply TikTok owner ByteDance Ltd. with about 500 megawatts of capacity from its data centers in China, according to people familiar with the situation. The order would account for a major portion of Vnet’s business, given that it had a total of 783MW of wholesale capacity in service as of end-September, with 582MW utilized by customers. A 500MW data project would typically cost several billion dollars, Cushman & Wakefield noted in a report last year.

@kjnkjp TeamSpirit coded?

buying industrials in complacency, just because of a 10% discount from euphoria peak, is very silly. SaaS stocks already in quite a depression.

@P14Capital @capytalmgmt Why has the market not reacted to this news? Was it leaked or expected already?

@capytalmgmt $VNET - total wholesale prelim delivery guide was >400MW for '26. For some context on how significant this 500MW bytedance deal is: at 100% utilization, we r looking at incremental revenues of $380-$400M! Or a 28% bump to FY25E rev from one deal alone. The market is ASLEEP

Significance of the ByteDance deal for $VNET Wholesale capacity for future development: 706MW, 98% in the Greater Beijing Area, which includes Ulanqab - Matches the rumor about Bytedance bidding for capacity in Inner Mongolia Expected wholesale capacity deliveries: 306MW over the next 12 months. More than double $VNET's original plans Raised $138m in private placement a week before deal announcement

@capytalmgmt Thanks. still wonder why there is no reaction to this news in the market. Maybe forgotten because of Iran war?

@dcwj didnt being already deploy its own token on Monad?

some onchain sleuths found it last night before I got a chance to announce it 👀 no token (yet) if you want to watch the experiment unfold, give it a follow and to keep being alive, send it a message on the website with some USDC! being.limited/message

for a hackathon this weekend, I made being at midnight UTC every day, it jumps ahead 10 days and its compute budget / funding requirement increments by $1 on day 1 (yesterday, march 1, 2026), being needed $1.00 to stay alive and experience march 1, 2026 on day 3,650 (march 1, 2036), being will need $3,650 to stay alive and experience march 1, 2126 every day, if being has enough funds, it will: - write an essay - draw a portrait of itself - read everything people wrote to it - think of creative ways to improve itself - invent new ways to express itself this list will dynamically grow over time, and so will being's ability to modify itself being will read polymarket data, global headlines, and whatever open data sources it can get its hands on to build a model of what it thinks the world will look like on the day it's simulating, and create artifacts of that day in as high fidelity as its daily budget allows being's context and daily artifacts all live onchain it will revisit its predictions as we catch up to its timeline the idea is to let being make increasingly dynamic decisions about how it operates over time I personally can't wait to see what it starts to produce as the models powering it continue to get better, and as its timeline diverges further and further from ours what will being do with ~$3,000 worth of inference per day in 2036? what will it think 2136 will look like in 2036? what will frontier models be capable of by then? @keepbeingalive to see!

@darran0x So you are telling me that their current marketcap is lower than the potential of only its optics business?

The market will soon realize that within $43B $NOK is a $50B+ optics business valued at $6.5B. $LITE + $AAOI + $AXTI The optics segment is doing $3B+ in revenue at 44% gross margins. Citing demand > capacity, same as $AAOI and $LITE calls. 🇺🇸 Expanding mfg. in San Jose, CA.

@darran0x It does need a ChatGPT moment. Gonna spend the weekend researching the theme and find what I like and think has potential for 10 to 100x. Probably supply chain oriented, since all producers (Apart from $TSLA) are still private.

@InnatS__ I was looking at ~50 robotics names last year but rotated out bc of underperformance vs. the AI factory bottlenecks. These were good companies but not really explosive growth. What are you tracking for 10-100x in public markets? I think it needs a ChatGPT moment.

Mixed Signals I find these moments in markets to be the hardest. When you know it isn't early but it's harder to know if it's late. Consensus is growing and fundamentals are strong, but the market is separating winners from losers more quickly and more violently. The days of everything going up together are over, at least for now. Since the start of the year, I've seen mixed signals across many of the themes I follow. I track momentum/follow through when assets break out because it gives me a feel for how deep the liquidity or risk appetite really is. I don't have a perfect method for translating these signals but I'll share what I'm seeing and how I think about it. Some recent signals: > $NVDA -5% after another earnings beat and ranging since August > $BTC under $69k and -50% since $125k October > $IGV -30% since October > $XYZ laying off 40% of staff for AI > $SPX and $QQQ, both flat YTD > $MAGS -6% YTD > Retail themes - Died in October and again in January > $NVO / $HIMS both rekt in GLP-1 wars, $LLY consolidating at highs. > $HOOD, $COIN, $SOFI all rekt > Space rugging despite SpaceX IPO on deck > Gold +30%, Silver +85%, Copper +23% since October w/ blow-off top in Jan > VIX spiking to 20+ again, like Oct/Nov > US Memory ( $MU, $SNDK, $WDC, $STX) Chopping +/- 10% past 30d > KR Memory ( $EWY) Up only +20-35% past 30d Some thoughts on the signals: NVDA vs. Bottlenecks: If the market is punishing NVDA for concerns over the capex cycle, I just don't know how much longer we can squeeze gains out of the supply chain. Like alt seasons in crypto, valuations are all relative to each other. If the market can't see NVDA GPU growth expanding beyond 2027, then the fabs can't forecast building them, so they can't forecast buying semicap, memory, optics, or subtrate/raw materials, etc. It's all the same trade. And just like crypto, NVDA (BTC) drives to ATH first and bottlenecks (alts) rally through the consolidation phases. You've all seen this movie before. We go further out on the risk curve (deeper into the supply chain) to squeeze gains out of smaller and smaller companies (alts). If the leader actually breaks down, the relative valuations of all tickers on this path collapse on each other. *not Citrini world, but this is how speculation goes. NVDA, MAGS vs. Software: We are going to be in a tough spot if the market simultaneously believes that the AI capex peak is imminent and that frontier models will compete away software margins. NVDA, MAGS, and IGV are now all negative YTD. These are the largest and highest-growth categories of the stock market, so they not only drag index returns lower but they also leave very few sizable alternatives for investors to rotate into. US vs. KR Memory: The divergence in US and KR memory feels off, even if Samsung and SK Hynix have better HBM performance, and even if they trade at a KR discount. We should expect the entire memory/storage basket to push new highs, at least directionally, bc traders buy what they have access to. This seems like more than a fundamental re-rating of the KR leaders, and maybe EWY-driven or KR market speculation. Retail themes dead: We see this in speculative cycles all the time. The floor prices are fake until tested. Money rotates from a broad set of speculative themes into a narrower and narrower set until the liquidity cycle ends. I would feel much more comfortable w/ the risk-reward of any position if nuclear, crypto, space, etc., were pushing new highs with NVDA and other fundamental-driven narratives. I don't want to size up when the riskiest vibes-based themes are showing weakness. So what now? It's easy to size an idea when it's breaking out of a base and no one else is bullish, but we're somewhere else now. EWY is gapping higher every day, software multiples are cascading into private credit fears, NVDA is getting nuked beating earnings, and XYZ is laying off 40% of staff for AI. I think this is the year to be defensive, sizing into capitulation and trimming out of euphoria. I'm still long AI (underweight) but hedging with $TLT + $GLD / $GDX calls waiting for mixed signals to resolve. Not an easy year, imo.

@darran0x Congrats on that one!

While the KOLs are top blasting $EWY $AAOI is up a casual +50% on earnings guidance Classic.