Gabriel Osorio-Mazzilli

$TGT is a steal 🚨 At just 55% of its 52-week high, it’s being treated like another tired retail name Yet under the surface, management is building something that could rerate the stock for years Let’s start with what most investors will miss: Target’s upcoming Circle Week (Oct 5–12) looks like a seasonal discount campaign “40% off” headlines, familiar brands like $AAPL and $GE, and the usual pre-holiday retail buzz But this isn’t about moving inventory. It’s about repositioning the brand and monetizing loyalty When you dig in, this is the first Circle Week that integrates Target’s new paid membership tier Target Circle 360 Think of it as $AMZN Prime, but with a sharper focus on physical retail convenience and instant fulfillment The short-term reaction might be, “Won’t that crush margins?” Sure, maybe for a quarter But in retail, that’s how durable moats are built Front-loaded discounts to secure back-end cash flows This isn’t a clearance sale. It’s a customer acquisition campaign, dressed like a shopping event And at today’s prices, with Fed cuts boosting consumer credit and traffic likely to surge, the market hasn’t priced in the asymmetric payoff that’s about to hit Target’s P&L Let’s break down why $TGT could be one of 2025’s quietest turnaround trades 🧵

@TicTocTick It’s all about multiples right now 20x ish for $SPX $SPY suggest 2-3% yields $TLT bonds offer better returns at this point After inflation we’re looking at 0-1% as you say Lost decade scenario

Whether stocks go to 6300 or 7300 this year, I have reasonable doubt that over the next 10 years the stocks won’t go anywhere. Lucky if 1% CAGR for next ten years.

Lost decade scenario With $ES $SPX multiples in the 20 We’re getting 2-3% yields, 0% after inflation

$GLD $GC is typically driven by TIPS yields and manufacturing PMI cycles Today, here’s what’s working against gold: - $HG Copper ratio bearish - $SLV Silver ratio bearish - PMI breaking out 3 months in a row - Commitment of Traders unwinding So when TIPS decline from $TLT action, and banks stop buying so much It’ll be hard to be a gold bull

BREAKING: Global central banks bought +19 tonnes of gold in February, posting their 23rd consecutive monthly purchase. This follows +6 tonnes in January, with year-to-date purchases now at +25 tonnes. The National Bank of Poland led with +20 tonnes, bringing gold reserves to 570 tonnes, or ~31% of total FX holdings. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan added +8 tonnes, lifting its gold reserves to 407 tonnes, or ~88% of total FX holdings. China purchased +1 tonne, marking the 16th consecutive monthly purchase, pushing the total to 2,308 tonnes, or ~10% of FX total reserves. Meanwhile, Turkey and Russia saw the biggest declines in February at -8 tonnes and -6 tonnes, with Turkey later selling an estimated ~120 tonnes in March to fund FX operations amid the Iran war. Central bank gold demand remains strong.

@jason_prat_git Unexpected earnings indicators show it’s got the strongest momentum $ADBE strength relative to $QQQ is definitely irrational compare to that EPS momentum

@InvestiBrew adobe the only one printing

Everyone’s going crazy about $META and its new AI model Yet when you look at earnings quality and momentum in the space it’s all declining From $NVDA at the top and everything else down the line On the other end, you have $ADBE beating earnings left and right and a massive discount

@StealthQE4 I would think the risk profile is shifting toward longer duration no? $SHY $TLT don’t look as attractive as mortgages right now

Today’s 10 year bond auction was a disaster 💀

@Blinklebloop Who said it’s over?

You survived the great 4% crash from all time highs.

@Barchart The NAAIM index says it all Even after the rebound from the March lows in $ES $SPX Institutions still chose not to chase the momentum here

Investors have been rotating to cash at one of the fastest paces in history 🚨🚨

With $ES $SPX multiples in the 20xs The S&P now yields something like 2-3% After inflation, that’s 0% return Beating that is going to take: - Luck - Concentration into speculative names - Leverage Buy and hold investing is dead right now Unless you’re in the right place

$6,800 $ES $SPX

Our folks had the exit this morning as flows started to turn in favor of an oil selloff $CL is crashing down and $ES $SPY is up Risk asset DCAs started last week on this view Guess what? Members are going to wake up to a double digit quarter Link in bio

$6,700 for $ES $SPX on two week ceasefire with Iran

$ES $SPX levels taken today $6,440 selloff to $6,584 36 points Link in bio

While your furu breaks down technical patterns @BMBInvesting members have access to institutional level analysis for companies In this case, $TCEHY Tencent's coverage goes deep into why EPS and FCF quality is superior to most other companies in tech It's comparable to $META $AAPL and even $GOOGL Yet the stock trades at an irrational discount even when applying a China risk premium Charts won't show you this, neither will anyone else in the space Join in this week's live call, and understand how we plan to beat the $SPY $QQQ during this lost decade Link in bio

@LarkDavis Quit while you’re ahead

In a CNBC interview Tom Lee said: 1. Stock market usually bottoms 10% into a war. World War 2 was 5 years, the market bottomed 5 months into the war 2. Now, the risk reward is good for stocks.

@amitisinvesting It’s because $AAPL isn’t joining the rest in drunken sailor AI investing Even if they were They’d be the only ones besides $MSFT that could afford it

What if $AAPL is actually one of the best AI plays?

@Mr_Derivatives Lowest for the quarter today 😮‍💨

Futes: $SPX went up 4 days in a row on declining volume each day. So we due for a red day…

This is exactly why we’re developing a handful of systematic portfolios for members When the time comes Cash will be deployed and outperform as we have for the past year Link in bio

$SPY $SPX lowest volume in a while today Seems like continuation buyers are nowhere to be found $VIX seasonality is now past the usual 20-30 day frame This could be systemic risk-off clustering The good news is buying opportunities will come soon