Dj Ash

i was alone when i turned bearish. Now the whole market turns bearish.. #nifty #StockMarkets #niftycrash But data suggests bottom is done today..

@SarangSood @bharat_builder Panic is measured by Vix. Vix is rising. Spiked near to 2022 levels. RSI on Vix is even more than 2022 levels on weekly TF

@bharat_builder Negativity is when panic selling is there. Bear market hasn't even started.

Negativity is spreading. Bull run is almost here

@1shankarsharma @_prashantnair 🤣🤣🤣

@_prashantnair Thank God, no Indian listed company promoter has even the faintest clue of all this, much less any company producing this kind of stuff. Food delivery apps are immune to all this . We are so insulated from global chaos

Chip/memory names plunged in Asia today ! Why ? Concerns that HBM chip demand (high bandwidth memory) will weaken after Google released the TurboQuant algorithm that shrinks AI working memory by >6x with nearly lossless performance - potentially lowering the HBM usage of large language models like Gemini. PS -> Asia was weak overall, MSCI AC Asia Pacific -1% -> Top laggards: Kospi -3%, Hang Seng TECH Index -3% -> Hang Seng was also down -2%

@theBuoyantMan 2014 to 2016 crude was cheap. Cheap crude caused margin expansion for companies here. 2018 crude spikes and companies hit margin peaks and slowdown in profits 2020 to 2021 same story 2026 to 2027 will be the same story. Crude gets cheap

The Crude Oil analysts who are sounding the alarm on how bad the supply loss is may sound like the crypto traders who left crypto and longed silver in the last leg parroting market manipulation and physical demand. But there's a subtle difference. Silver - even though it's an industrial metal and a significant store of value along with Gold when trust in currencies, economies, and governments start reducing it's still isolated in the impact it's supply/demand imbalance can cause. Crude oil on the other hand is THE single most important input to economies worldwide. It's definitely possible to jawbone prices through market manipulation, especially by presidents who stand to gain from the manipulation while regulators look away. But, the current scenario is even if Hormuz opens tomorrow unconditionally, we're looking at a significant enough supply loss that the ripple effects are already being seen. The base case is that there's no Oil glut - neither on water, nor on land. All the glut got erased within the first 10 days of the war. Now every day we push through the 15MBPD supply loss, it's another day of margin for error thinning out. What would be the result of this? Prices reach levels where demand destruction happens. And from there, it has its own impact across countries, economies, and people have already started seeing the impact at different places, specifically in emerging economies. Even developed nations like Australia weren't prepared for such an event or the outcome as a result of what's happening. Most people have recency bias, and most of the traders/investors you see in Indian market came into markets around/post 2020. Covid crash is the only reference point to them of a lived crisis and because it's been a V-shaped reversal, everyone is anchored to that price action, that reference point. From the valuation reference point being quoted around (NIFTY's forward/current PE now vs 2020) to the type of advice being doled out - buy right now, deploy cash right now, market can't go down more than the current levels, it's too oversold, valuations are already attractive, etc., take it from someone who's been studying crowd psychology and COT positioning driven market behavior for the last 5 years, this is just cattle walking into a slaughterhouse believing they are exempt from a tail event. The tail event right now is not market dropping to 18-20k and reversing from there like Covid in a v-shaped manner. The tail event is consolidating here and slowly dripping down over the rest of the year as economies across the world go through energy crisis, inflation spikes, central banks scramble, and with already lost confidence due to archaic financial market policies by the current government. During the 2018 small & midcap sell off, after a specific point, around dec-2018 to jun-2019, there was something of a light at the end of the tunnel. Market started behaving better and everyone thought that the worst was behind. But because everyone thought that, those who threw caution to the wind and did not follow a disciplined approach, got butchered in the march selloff. Some even called for the markets to be shut and short selling to be banned. The message from me here is simple. Don't expect a v-shaped recovery. And if you're expecting one, don't be in a hurry to deploy all your cash. We may get one, but don't expect it. Plan for different scenarios and deploy cash with a 5-7 year horizon, only on the pockets where there are true asymmetric opportunities available from a valuation + risk standpoint. If you're a passive investor, don't pay attention to news, war, etc. Make sure the approach you follow gets you most exposure when there's max pain in the market. I use a linear kelly-ish approach (that I have detailed in other posts) where I start with 'n' amount of cash, divide that by 15, and deploy x at 10% drawdown, 2x at 20%, 3x at 30%, 4x at 40%, 5x at 50% drawdown from highs and then hold it through a cycle. This is on index funds and this has helped me since 2017. What happens if Indian market goes through a zero return Japan style market for the next two decades? I'm okay with that risk and that's why I have gotten exposure to China, US, and to some extent commodities, metals and fixed income as well - whenever possible through ETFs/MFs and very rarely through options. The key takeaway here is simple. Ignore the doomsayers and ignore the super-optimistic people as well. Have a disciplined approach which can average you out and get you better exposure at very good prices. As part of this approach, don't have the expectation to pick the exact bottom or top. Accumulate with discipline when things are cheap and sell to take profits when the same ones become dear/more than fairly valued. You can achieve outstanding returns over a long enough time horizon if you consistently accomplish better than average returns. And better than average returns are possible only if you behave better than the average investor out there. The average investor panics at the bottom and piles in at the top. You can do slightly better than that by making sure you have an income source to support your life, you don't have to care about your investments while you deploy cash into market pain, and increase allocation/investment amount during periods of peak panic (and vice versa on decreasing/exiting on periods of peak euphoria). So, don't expect a V-shaped recovery, be prepared for multiple outcomes/scenarios, have a plan that doesn't depend on Trump or Israel or Iran doing a certain thing.

@deepakshenoy Its half truth news deepak. Israel are hitting Iran. USA has clearly stated not to attack energy infra. Crude is up because Saudi announced a military option for iran retaliation.

Like I said, don't believe a word of what Trump says.

@RicchaDwivedi News is few weeks old. Country names are disclosed today as a procedure according to their rules. Get yourself fact-checked. Takes about a few mins only

QatarEnergy declares force majeure on LNG contracts with Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. Two days ago, Petroleum Ministry JS had stated Qatar’s LNG capacity has been hit, and it will hit us as well. No clarity yet on India, but something to watch closely.

@aravind Maybe Saudi is wanting to profit from war premium. Making millions of dollars everyday. Iran send cheap drones, Saudi makes maximum profit. No real damage so far. All theater and rhetoric

Seems it is not just Israel, the entire Islamic middle east is going for war with Iran. Seems they have had enough of the threats and terrorism. And Saudi is leading the pack. It's going to be devastating for Iran no matter how much of a fight they can still put up. Pray for the people of Iran. Better pray a deal is reached soon and there's peace.

@1shankarsharma @_prashantnair Ive been telling this to everyone. Iran and Gulf are making bucket loads of money in this war. India are the most suffering without firing a single bullet in this war

So Iran is under duress, US and Israel are not? ( Maybe you missed reading my piece in Business Standard " The Algebra and Calculus of War". Iran is making money hand over fist as I type that: pre war discount is gone, my rough estimate : 150 million dollars a day, ~ 4 billion a month + 2 million dollars a ship in SOH, estimates around 500 million dollars to 1 billion a month. They have the brains, the jigar, the unbelievable tech, now they have the money. On the other hand, US is fiscally challenged, Israel has no natural resources. So how is Iran under duress vs the aggressors? Just asking...

I said this yesterday evening & today as well & I got a lot of pushback from people (which is fair).. but I do think we are starting to see a early & faint path to some sort of resolution wrt #IranWar‌ ! Don't read too much into the public denials regarding talks. Iran is under duress. But it cannot afford to be seen to be engaging in negotiations while being attacked - won't work wrt public perception. This does not mean talks are not happening. So what is the road ahead ? Well, US Marine forces are still enroute, the Strait remains closed & there is no clear picture yet.. I would say if we don't see any tangible progress on the path to a resolution in a day or two - markets will likely start to worry again into the weekend. So lets see. #Iran #Nifty #BankNifty #Trump #India

Sorry, but that's a very empty NAVARZ (9079078), belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC); and not in the Strait of Hormuz, but south of Hormuz Island in the Hormuzgan Province of Iran. She's been in that very spot since 2025-03-13. Congrats.

I would like to tell you a hugely big story in one picture.

@mxtaverse Most dumbest analysis I’ve read in a while. Do you even know what’s CAD ?? Every rise in crude with a falling rupee is a overhang for India Talented youth are going there for dollars income dumbo . If INR is weak how do you keep them here

A weak rupee is great for IT exporting companies, which hire most of our youth. Importers will have a problem but they can instead purchase Made in India goods. A huge portion of our economy which is remittance based will also get boosted. Talented youth will stay in India as foreign education becomes unaffordable, stopping brain drain. People will also avoid foreign travel, benefitting Indian tourism. The new Deep State, which is busy fighting old Deep State, cannot see India winning and has started funding the usual suspects to make a hue and cry about weakening of INR. We must remain careful.

@SahilKapoor Inflation is imported by India. US yields follow and predict inflation. Not indian yields

20 marks question India Crude Oil basket went from $63 avg in Jan 2026 to $146 on 18th March. Yet India 10-year GSec yield hasn't budged an inch. It's same as 6.70% to 6.75% range. Explain.

@theliverdoc Eyes went straight to Goku

Cleaned up the desk today.

@Nithin0dha Bro is preparing to launch a business soon in this space 😉

I don't use net banking apps on my phone because the mandatory permissions they ask for make no sense. Why does a banking app need access to my SMS, phone, contacts, etc., in the name of security, when not seeking invasive device permissions is, in fact, the global benchmark for cybersecurity. This is called the Principle of Least Privilege (PoLP). “Don't do unto others what you don't want done unto you” has been at the heart of the Zerodha philosophy. This is exactly why we've built Zerodha the way we have. Kite asks for ZERO permissions on mobile, for instance, and this is one of the big reasons why millions of people trust us. What has enabled us is SEBI's mandatory strong two-factor authentication framework strike the right balance between security and privacy.

@theliverdoc The real doc dressed up cool in black sporting a beard for a debate, and the wannabe comes with a medical coat to validate her insecurity

A true physician concerned about public health and patient safety, will without fear, educate people on lack of evidence, documented harms and promoted frauds of alternative medicine systems. Do not fear when you stand for what is true. youtube.com/live/z1_zou2Vi…

@theliverdoc The FEVER topic was epic. She completely got cooked. 🤣🤣

@GavMcCracken Houthi’s signed a ceasefire agreement last year Breaching the agreement would make them cease to exist

Look at that density, the Houthi's can hit a tanker, then hit Yanbu, and easily send WTI over $200. Do you own Suncor yet anon? $SU $SU.TO

@aravind Bro. What about BRICS and dedollarisation that many experts are quacking. Im the same view like you. USA has technology, healthcare, now AI and data centers.

China holds some $650+ billion of US debt even today. It is the largest trading country in USD denominated currency after the US itself. More than all of Gulf nations yearly petrodollar flows. To say the US economy is a Ponzi scheme is kind of OK, even if you don't want to consider the innovation, tech, and products coming out of the US. But to say it is propped up by the Gulf states is nothing but classic CCP communist tactics - accuse others of doing what you do yourself shamelessly. Anyway, since the US economy will face total collapse if just the Gulf states give up the petrodollar, why not China give up all its dollar reserves and US treasuries first? Why not dump it all today and see the US suffer? Answer: They won't. They will keep telling you they will do it. But they can't. And they know. Only when the US itself crashes the USD to reset its financial system, can the petrodollar ever suffer. Even then it will be temporarily until a new, may be a crypto backed, US dollar emerges.

@aravind @ShashiTharoor Final rhetoric by IRGC will come saying that Saudi infra will be attacked. That marks the end of the war i think. Backchannels must already be in talks right now..

Very sane and sensible analysis yet again by @ShashiTharoor ji in terms of geopolitics and India's role. He's right that in India's own interests India must persuade the US to end the war quickly. But as he said, the balance of war is the US favor. So the issue is the US will end it only when it wants to when all their objectives are met. But by my own assessment, the good thing is the US also wants to end the war soon. I believe by April it will be done with its main objectives in Iran and fully reopen Hormuz. The rest will be for Israel to manage.

@MBAeconomics1 @GonzalezP41820 Still you havent given me the data i asked for.

@InvestinIsCraft @GonzalezP41820 Ive been called a bot thousands of times in my career! Wear it with a badge of honor! No offense taken!

Hypothetical: If the price of #oil goes to $250, what would the price of #silver be?