@Bluefox0005 @amitisinvesting @public You get filled 5% above the ask and jump for joy you’re not paying $1 in commissions 😭
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herc
321 posts
@amitisinvesting @public Robinhood and their no commisions is what helped a broke person like me get into the market
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@JohnLoc18 What the fuck is this reversal candle you are speaking of???
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You can pay $140 for 4/24 $spx 6700c with a .46 delta and time cushion or you can pay $14 for 1dte .25 delta where theta burns every minute
Which one do you choose?
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Almost 100 point move from yesterday. Don’t sleep on the Golden Rule
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$spx will be green tomorrow
Take opposite of fomc move
Every time
I'm in 4/24 6700c at 145
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LIVE LOOK AT $HOOD social!
Shoutout to Vlad and the entire $HOOD team! I’m so stoked to be part of the beta testing and can’t wait to see what else is in store!
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herc retweetledi
I forecast that the Iran conflict will find some start of a resolution by this weekend
Reason being with the hot PPI inflation print in Feb, it puts even more pressure on Trump to act quicker to lower energy prices or else he will face hotter inflation for longer which will severely affect the GOP midterm odds
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herc retweetledi
Today's FOMC might be the most important one this year and nobody's framing it correctly.
The rate decision doesn't matter. A hold at 3.50-3.75% is 99% priced. What matters is the dot plot and whether Powell calls oil inflation temporary.
Since the Iran war started, the market has repriced from expecting 2-3 rate cuts in 2026 to 0-1. June cut probability collapsed from ~48% to ~32%. Some desks are pricing a 25% chance of a rate hike this year.
That means there's room for a dovish surprise — and the positioning behind it is what makes this FOMC different from every other one.
CTAs have rapidly delevered from $180 billion long to roughly neutral globally. In S&P 500 futures specifically, Goldman's data shows they've gone from -$5B to -$75B. Goldman estimates ~$93 billion in mechanical buying activates on a sustained rally.
If Powell delivers a dovish surprise today and SPX rallies through 6,761 — the medium-term CTA trigger level — that buying starts to flow. And because it flows through index futures and arbitrage, it hits every stock in the index at once. Broad, indiscriminate buying.
That's exactly the condition needed to trigger a Zweig Breadth Thrust. 18 signals since WWII. 18 for 18 positive at 6 and 12 months. Average 12-month return: +24%. The window closes around March 27.
I wrote the full breakdown — CTA positioning data, the specific trigger levels, the math on what breadth needs to look like, and what kills the thesis. Link below.
KASM Capital@KASM_Capital
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@Glock9Dorito Call of duty Elite … pourquoi avoir fait ça qu’une année alors que c’était incroyable
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@JohnLoc18 This is not a reversal candle first of all. Second of all reversals can only happen at top and bottom of ranges or trends. Please read the book
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Fintwit in shambles,I don’t even sell sub but some how they wonder how I don’t have a 9 to 5 and live like a boomer. 💀 could buy a boat any day of the week but I just pretend to be normal 🚨
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@KASM_Capital Can’t believe you left out the fact that he’s out personal Jew
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The Alpha Pod just added a futures trader to the room.
Multi-six figure P&L. I've traded alongside him for the past two years and his execution is as clean as anyone I've seen.
Bonus: he's an absolute riot.
More details soon.
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herc retweetledi
These $SPY calls will open up over 50%.
I've been posting caution on SPY for over a week. Still think we have downside risk on the weekly structure.
That hasn't changed.
But Friday the setup was clear. SPY premiums were screaming that bullish demand was building underneath while CTAs were mechanically selling into it. The buying pressure had nowhere to go — it was just compressing. I said Friday that if we didn't get the move that day, Monday or Tuesday would be the release.
So I loaded calls.
Cautious on the trend doesn't mean you sit out every trade. It means you size right and take what the flow is giving you.
Friday's post broke down the full thesis in real time:
x.com/KASM_Capital/s…
KASM Capital@KASM_Capital
$SPY 3/20 670 calls for 6.05
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Is that the best you can do oil bears? Bessent has really lost his touch.
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I got criticized on Friday for changing my base case from a bounce Monday to a flush Monday when the data and conditions changed and was attacked. Well, once again this is why trading is not a team sport, you either change and adapt with shifting conditions or you lose money.
IGSquawk@IGSquawk
Weekend markets update: #USOIL 10315 +5.60% #DAX 23188 -0.60% #DOW 46256 -0.47% #NASDAQ 24223 -0.40% #FTSE 10199 -0.40% #HANGSENG 25304 -0.38% #EURUSD 11410 -0.06% #GOLD 5030 +0.23% #SILVER 8058 +0.06% #IGWeekendMarkets
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Everyone's calling this a liquidity crisis. I've been guilty of it myself.
The plumbing says otherwise.
Net liquidity just hit $5.8 trillion. Up $104 billion in four weeks. RRP is at zero. TGA is bleeding down at $77B a month, flooding reserves into the system. The Fed balance sheet actually grew last week.
That 0.9 correlation between net liquidity and $SPY doesn't just disappear. It disconnects sometimes. Then it snaps back.
Right now price is screaming recession while the financial plumbing quietly builds a floor. Fear and Greed below 20. Not a single major asset class with positive momentum. $VIX parked at 27.
This is a sentiment problem dressed up as a structural one.
FOMC Wednesday is the catalyst. If Powell doesn't actively tighten from here, the liquidity tailwind does the work. I think $SPY is back at 662.29 to 690 before month end.
What's the bear case if liquidity keeps expanding?
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James, this has become a clown show. One day trump says “it’s over” knowing he will get a reaction, the next day more bombs fly, Trump says the strait is open, the next day ships get bombed, Trump says they are ready to surrender, the next hour bombs fly again, Trump waits until market close for weekend to start bombing the island. Maybe if he were not an Israeli puppet or if he didn’t watch the market every hour this “war” could have indeed been over already. The MSM and Wall Street are catching up to his bullshit not betting he fails, they are catching up to the fact that with every lie told we are closer to failure.
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For the record.
The null hypothesis of both the MSM and Wall Street is simple: Donald Trump, and the USA, will fail. They’ve priced it in, bet on it, and built their entire narrative architecture around it, militarily, economically, and politically. Every market dip is treated as confirmation; every success is dismissed as an anomaly.
Then Sec of War, Pete Hegseth detonates that premise in one brutal line of sight, staring down the press and calling out their addiction to Trump’s downfall. He’s not just torching reporters; he’s burning down the cottage industry of doubt sold daily to investors and viewers alike. The truth? It’s not analysis anymore, it’s performance art for the anti-Trump economy.
Right Scope 🇺🇸@RightScopee
🚨BREAKING: SecDef Pete Hegseth stares right at the press and goes scorched earth, spelling out their insanity. I could watch this all day. "You, and I mean specifically YOU, the press, you cheer against Trump so hard, it's in your DNA and in your blood to cheer against Trump, because you want him not to be successful so bad, you have to cheer against the efficacy of these strikes. You have to hope maybe they weren't effective." "Maybe the way the Trump administration is representative isn't true. So let's take half truths, spun information, leaked information, and then spin it, spin it in every way we can to try to cause doubt and manipulate the mind, the public mind, over whether or not our brave pilots were successful." "How many stories have been written about how hard it is to, I don't know, fly a plane for 36 hours? Has MSNBC done that story? Has Fox? Have we done the story how hard that is?" "There are so many aspects of what our brave men and women did that because of the hatred of this press corps are undermined because people are trying to leak and spin that it wasn't successful. It's irresponsible." "You're undermining the success of incredible B-2 pilots and incredible F-35 pilots and incredible refuelers and incredible air defenders who accomplished their mission." "How about we talk about how special America is, that only we have these capabilities? I think it's too much to ask, unfortunately, for the fake news. So we're used to that." Do you firmly support Pete Hegseth on this? A. Huge Yes B. No IF Yes, Give me a THUMBS-UP👍!! MAKE THIS GO VIRAL ON 𝕏. LET’S GO 👏
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I'm really confused by the comments. If you're trolling, then you really have no idea how levels work.
If you're not trolling, happy to explain more.
KASM Capital@KASM_Capital
$SPX
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