Isaac Stone Fish
5.7K posts
@isaacstonefish
CEO and founder, Strategy Risks. Columnist, Barron's. Visiting fellow, @AtlanticCouncil, adjunct, NYU.
Q: "Why didn't you tell U.S. allies…about the war before attacking Iran?" President Trump: "We wanted surprise. Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn't you tell me about Pearl Harbor?"
.@DNIGabbard: "The IC assesses that China likely prefers to set the conditions for an eventual peaceful reunification with Taiwan short of conflict."
On Tuesday, I testified before the House Homeland Security Committee on China's strides in robotics and AI. I warned that we lost solar, batteries, and EVs -- now we're at risk of losing robotics and AI. If that happens, it would irreversibly change the balance of power. Five points: 1️⃣ China aims to win the next industrial revolution. PRC leaders believe history is shaped by industrial revolutions. The first, steam power, made Britain dominant. The second and third, electrification and mass manufacturing, made America dominant. China is determined to win the fourth. 2️⃣ In robotics, China is already winning. In 2024, China installed 300,000 new industrial robots. America installed 30,000. China now has over 2 million robots in its factories — five times more than the US. A decade ago, it imported 75% of its robots. Today it makes 60% domestically. This year alone, China may spend $400 billion on industrial policy. The entire US CHIPS Act provided $50 billion across multiple years. If we fall behind here, U.S. reindustrialization becomes farfetched. 3️⃣ In AI, we're ahead — but selling off the advantage. China has more energy, more talent, and makes the edge devices. But America still leads because of chips, according to China's own AI companies. US chips are 4-5x better than China's today. We are debating whether to surrender that edge. 4️⃣ We are inviting risks of cyberespionage and catastrophic cyberattacks. PRC law requires its companies to cooperate with intelligence services and never disclose it. Today's robots carry LiDAR, microphones, and cameras — they are mobile surveillance platforms. But the bigger risk is cyberattack. We know China has compromised our power, gas, water, telecommunications, and transportation infrastructure in preparation for cyberattack. We cannot deploy robots in sensitive facilities from the very country targeting those facilities. 5️⃣ Here's what we must do. Extend ICTS rules to cover Chinese robots. Direct CISA to audit where they're deployed in critical infrastructure. Ban federal procurement of Chinese robotics and AI. Strengthen semiconductor export controls. Stop treating American AI companies with more regulatory scrutiny than Chinese ones. And build allied scale in robotics—a trading bloc with preferential terms for the members that can rival China's scale in in the sector. Thanks to @HomelandDemsIt and @HomelandGOP for the hearing on this topic, and grateful to join @MRobbinsAUVSI and colleagues from Scale and Boston Dynamics for a great discussion.
Iranian leaders eliminated, by The New York Times
If you aren't just asking rhetorically, it's because it's NOT a “story about Asia and coal”; it's very specifically a piece about Asian economies with heavy exposure to gas in their power sectors forced to lean more on their coal fleet instead as LNG prices spike. However, unlike JP, SK, etc. China uses very little gas in its power sector (just ~3% of generation) and those gas plants see most of their use in the peak months of July/August. So, there is no gas-to-coal switching happening in the Chinese power sector right now, putting it outside the scope of the article.
📢 Join us for the tenth edition of USISPF’s Indo-Pacific Security Dialogues. 📕 From Tehran to New Delhi: Navigating Crisis, Commerce, and Strategic Resilience 📅 Thursday, March 19, 2026 🕙 9:00 AM EST/6:30 PM IST Register here: 👇👇 usispf.zoom.us/webinar/regist… (After registering, you will receive a confirmation email with details on joining the webinar) Our stellar panel includes: 👉 Dr. @dmistree, Research Fellow, @HooverInst, @Stanford University 👉 @ThisIsSoliman, Senior Fellow, @MiddleEastInst and Director, Middle East & North Africa, @McLartyAssoc 👉 @isaacstonefish, Founder and CEO, @StrategyRisks The virtual discussion will be moderated by @Akshobh of USISPF. Link to our past episodes is here: usispf.org/usispf-indo-pa…
The United States is no longer a democracy and is sliding towards autocracy faster than Hungary and Turkey, according to the annual report of the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute at Gothenburg University. theguardian.com/world/commenti…
rumors of NDRC taking action to punish people linked to Manus still in China, to make sure that no other AI firms/researchers think they can leave the country like Manus did to Singapore and then exit to a foreign firm.
Xinjiang in the coming months isn’t just a trip; it’s a journey through nature’s highlight reel.
There are almost no original planned-economy socialist states left. We are down to Cuba and North Korea. Everyone else adopted market reforms. Looking at this it might not be very long until only North Korea is left.
"Swaths of the public in Canada, Germany, France and the U.K. have soured on the U.S. They see the 21st century more likely to belong to Beijing than to Washington, driven by President Donald Trump’s foreign policy decisions" via @politico @Jordyn_Dahl politico.com/news/2026/03/1…
