IsaacWx

I forgot about MUCAPE I may be stupid💀

@ZachWX_ Ahhh, thank you!

@IsaacWx_ Because the instability is elevated

How is there a storm in Missouri with 2.75 inch hail in an environment with, I kid you not, ZERO instability

Chasing today. Should I stay in STL and play the ofb or is it worth driving to SEMO? leaning Ofb rn

@avphotos05 firstly thats not the outlook secondly look at your key

Dawg where is the outlook

@ashwincrosby I mean I don't think there will be very bad svr weather much once you get far north of the greater STL area. Thats about the northern bound

@IsaacWx_ When you say you don’t love it Are you talking about terms of big severe weather breakout or there will be big severe weather

@IsaacWx_ is there a morning round of severe for St. Louis before the main line and what are the threats of that one

@ashwincrosby They might, but I dont expect the MDT to move much in the north

@IsaacWx_ Could they make an adjustment and lower it from moderate

@ashwincrosby I don't love anywhere much north of St. Charles county for today, I can't lie

@IsaacWx_ North east Missouri is still raining so does that decrease their risk in your mind despite being upgraded to moderate?

...

@tylerkwx03 the morning convecton pulling up like

@IsaacWx_ makes perfect sense, morning convection concerns + linear upscale growth potential

Gng literally how

@zexphhhh @Jake04051480914 its scheduled for 1 am CST

@IsaacWx_ @Jake04051480914 You said d1 outlook should release very soon right

04z HRRR trying to literally kill the entire MO/IL area

@SGT_Vzbez Stay safe bro

@IsaacWx_ we have an away game across the river in missouri tmrw

@zexphhhh @Jake04051480914 I don't expect it with the next outlook, but I wouldn't be suprised if its issued eventually. Very little ceiling to tor strength today.

@IsaacWx_ @Jake04051480914 Is cig 3 tor possible

@Jake04051480914 They could certainly pull higher risks than those, but I expect them to hold those until later outlooks if they are issued

@IsaacWx_ I agree neither am I but I feel like the ceiling is so high at some point we may be shocked with a higher risk than anticipated

@Jake04051480914 Can't say I'm a great source but I expect 45 CIG 2 hail, 45 Cig 1 wind, 15 CIG 2 tor for this outlook

@IsaacWx_ Predictions?

@Jake04051480914 It should come out in the next 15 mins

@IsaacWx_ When will we get d1 outlook. 1 correct

@JosephMatt226 Certainly a possibility

@IsaacWx_ Someone said this is CIG3 worthy if verified. 🤔