
Ismail Ben Ayed
349 posts

Ismail Ben Ayed
@IsmailBenAyed1
Professor, @ETSMTL and @CRCHUM



















When megacaps drop ~10% on top of an existing sell-off with no major news, and NVDA sells off despite a 50% increase in capex, it can feel like we’re being manipulated into panic-selling our assets. Or maybe we’re just living in a simulation.






Bellwethers✨ Time is running out. Apple Nvidia.





My post here was inexact. My post elsewhere was more complete, below. This chart shows why China will win if Nvidia’s chips are the way forward. Nvidia's development roadmap is essentially a power consumption roadmap. and innovation is just figuring out how to power and to cool bigger, hotter silicon. Power needs keep climbing because efficiency gains cannot keep up with compute install. This chart shows that is not a path to victory for the U.S. Not only is China way ahead, it will continue to press its advantage - the slope is the key. That is acceleration of power generation development. US transmission grid development is actually decelerating due to permitting issues while China is building transmission at will to match power output. In fact, to the extent this is an AI arms race, US companies are plowing capital into a race it is structurally positioned to lose. So it cannot be an AI arms race, if the US can help it. The US needs to get away from bigger and bigger power hungry chips and innovate with AI-tuned ASICs like nobody’s business. Nvidia has a death grip on development through its investments and agreements with so many important US AI companies and startups. DOJ Antitrust is investigating and should act, but Trump probably stops that. It is left to the market to figure out LLMs are not the way to AGI or ASI, and stop feeding the beast. Can our biggest companies make the pivot?







