Jay DeSart

I had to make a little introduction video to fulfill the requirements of an online teaching workshop I'm enrolled in this Summer.

@shawnhopper @HP Same. They agreed to send me a cartridge but it will take over a week to get here. I needed to print, so I bought an @HP cartridge at the store. Printer doesn't recognize it as HP. Last @HP product I'll ever buy.

@JADPhD @HP Ditto. Had their instant ink for several years. Needed it when we had a house full of print users. Then, as our needs reduced, I canceled the service and attempted to buy HP brand ink from my local tech shop. The printer recognized the HP in about 10% of the time. Scam.

Your Instant Ink program is a scam, @HP. You've been taking my money for over four years and have yet to send me any cartridges in that time. Now I can't print anything. The app still says I have ink when I clearly don't.

And your @HPSupport site is worthless. It sends users around in circles.

Hey @RCWilley, you're gonna need to deliver another new refrigerator after this. It has a couple dents in addition to the busted shelf. No acknowledgement, no apology. They just left without saying a word.

Who did Allan Lichtman's Keys to the Vatican say would win the Conclave? I bet it wasn't someone named Bob. #Forecast

@TCGNIC It's pronounced WAH-ke-SHAW, not wa-KESH-a

I think I'm done here. Look for me elsewhere: BlueSky: jadphd Threads: thepoliticaldatanerd

The Electoral College prediction map in our @ps_polisci Special Issue introduction published in mid-October looks just like the actual results. Election fundamentals & scientific approaches work! doi.org/10.1017/S10490…

Will he do this? I'm not optimistic. But if Trump truly wants to mold an image of himself as a genuinely "great president" in the minds of presidential scholars, he needs to do something different than he did in his first term. 4/4

Trump doesn't have to worry about reelection, so he has the opportunity to turn away from his base and strike a new tone. He could work to counter party polarization. A more positive tone of reconciliation and bipartisanship would do wonders to rehabilitate his image. 3/4

If I were advising Trump, I'd tell him to work on rehabilitating his legacy. Right now he's a twice impeached Grover Cleveland who currently sits near the bottom of the historical ranking of Presidents. If his second term looks anything like the first, he'll stay there. 🧵1/4

We are obviously still waiting for the final results, but the average Electoral College forecast from state-level models in the @ps_polisci Special Issue on Forecasting the 2024 US Elections is looking quite accurate! 🇺🇲 🗳 @m2p_be @Sciencepo_UdeM @McGillPoliSci @MizzouPoliSci

Political Science for the win. (Just not the win you were hoping for)

The people calling this a "realignment" have no idea what a realignment actually is.

FWIW... The state-level point estimates of my Long-Range Forecast, the one that made a prediction a year ago, got every state right.

Why is CNN not calling Connecticut and New Jersey yet? AP called them hours ago.

This was my forecast a year ago.

@sjcallut2 Be prepared for 4 years of chaos.

@JADPhD I may only follow you on X tonight Jay. Give it to me straight

Early county results in Kentucky and Indiana look more like 2020 than 2016