Jason C

Semiconductors would like a word. Never get too cute. Ego investment is a death kneel in markets. Pivot fluidly and with grace. It’s ok to be wrong. 1) semis new ATH 2) SPY weekly back above 680 (pending today’s close) 3) SPY weekly above the 61.8% of the ATH to interim low (pending today’s close) These 3 put a massive dent in the bearish thesis.

Auras Technology $3324 is mispriced. Earnings are being underestimated and durability remains under appreciated. The paradigm shift in liquid cooling heading into 2027-2028 remains under the radar and AURAS is perfectly positioned as a prime beneficiary. Chart is coiled in an 8 month ascending channel. Strong candidate for a clean 3x here. @aleabitoreddit @ParadisLabs @yianisz @Venu_7_ @HyperTechInvest @Ren_aramb @labubu_trader @BULLOFBRITAIN

$RSP ATH

@Venu_7_ 👊 G

finally got back from a much needed small reset. it really feels good to disconnect from social media once in a while - highly recommend it. life is good. fully back to the grind from here on.

@BenKizemchuk @PurpleDrink_LLC You do you. I read the May update when it was published back on the 5th so I’m already privy to the performance metrics.

Ben much prefers lengthy and eloquent financial soliloquies that anchor him in being “right” rather than actually making money and selecting strong stocks outside of the index that demonstrate relative strength and undeniably healthy trend construction. Until he can detach himself from his ego investment and love of waxing poetic he will remain limited by his self reinforced myopia. As evidence, look no further than his entire posting history ever since the breakout to fresh ATH. He has interesting insights and is clearly very knowledgeable with respect to plumbing and flow but I interpret his approach as overly subjective and self limiting.

Simple minded strawman doesn't cut it. Most of the time the market will let you get away with chasing it. You don't have to understand too much about how rallies are built or why the market is moving. "Price up" is enough. However I argue that today we are in an extremely slim minority of cases where that construction matters a great deal. You can ignore it, but you cannot escape it.

Every single stock has to be up 30%, oil has to be $65/bbl, rates have to be 2.5% all at the same time otherwise Ben cannot be the least bit bullish

I suspect $IREN $CORZ and $BTDR will all ink deals by the time they report earnings in August. They can all double by year end.

Best guess is one more down day tomorrow for 4 consecutive followed by the $NVDA reversal. Targeting top of gap and 20d ie $SPY 727 tomorrow. Another -1% $RSP 200 $IWM 269

Unusual activity on 6/5 strike calls today in size spread across multiple names: $LITE 6.6M $AVGO 5.8M $MSFT 5M $COHR 2.3M That’s $20M with 13 trading days until expiration. I suspect it’s the same buyer targeting an upside directional move following $NVDA earnings.

@TradingThomas3 Basically a reflection of $RSP

$NYMO McClellan Oscillator about to hit oversold as market makes new ATH😂

@citrini Can confirm

Macro is going to become important again. Brace yourselves for incredibly bad takes.

$HIMX today reminds me of $AMD on 4/22/16 with the gap and go +40% Also a 10+ year monthly base on $HIMX @citrini @zephyr_z9

@vlmkapital @ParadisLabs Cant prove it but Paradis is Serenity’s alt account. 99% certain.

Here's a little guide on how to spot LLM slop when em dashes just aren't enough. I'll be using a post from Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs on LPKF $LPK as the demonstration. The trained eye would immediately know that the post was not written with much thought from the fact that it is full of misinformation or completely incoherent reasoning (e.g., mixing T-glass fiber cloth with glass substrates, invalid inferences through JWMT and BOE, etc.). But there's no need to even go that far. There is a more generalizable way to tell: formatting inconsistency. Everyone knows that LLMs love em dashes, so people will also know to hide them from their LLM output - but very few people know there are actually levels to this. LLMs have a couple other formatting quirks. Three examples would be: 1. Curly unicode apostrophe: ’ vs. ', 2. Curly unicode double-quotes: “ ” vs. " ", 3. En dashes as range indicators: – vs. -. Though there's a slight nuance: several word processors like Microsoft Word or iPhone keyboards automatically format the latter with the former on the first two. However, word processors rarely format regular dashes to en dashes in range indicators. LLMs tend to do all three. It becomes pretty obvious that the text partially originates from an external source when you have non-ASCII formatting mixed with the regular ASCII formatting in the same document. Some examples from the post with quotes and apostrophes: - “Valley of Death” vs. "multi-hundred million dollars" - aren’t vs aren't - “earthworm structure” vs. "earthworm" The last one especially is really funny because it's literally the same phrase quoted in two different ways. The more telling factor, since word processors rarely automatically do it, is the difference in range indicators. In the post we have: - 1.5-2x, 18-24 months vs. - 18–36 months, €105–120M, 3–4%, 2027–2030. Here the former use a regular dash, the latter use an en dash. Additionally there are some weird separators like "—---" where you have an em dash followed by regular dashes There are also other ways to make conclusions, like LLM-esque rhetoric, but people probably already have developed good judgement for this. And I mean it becomes even more obvious when you combine the formatting inconsistencies with all the reasoning errors. And yes, I am blocked by this user so I cannot directly quote-tweet the post. Maybe I can link it in the comments though

@BenKizemchuk Maybe take a peek at stocks that are actually direct beneficiaries. $BE fits your desired narrative for “AI CAPEX meme price acceleration.” But moreover the basket of neoclouds and colocation providers are the stocks that actually reflect power scarcity.

Ok maybe power infra is a gigantic decade-long cup and handle, but honestly would have expected more AI capex meme price acceleration by this point. You're telling me the bottleneck is power, and yet power is still trading at 2014? Does not pass the sniff test.

@BenKizemchuk Yes it is. Prepare for a bear market all the way down to the 20d moving average.

14% rally, island into ath, rallied .5% then closed at low. Is that exhaustion?

@Beth_Kindig Needs context. Shifting landscape = new leadership. Training —> inference and customs NVDA Capital rotation —> AVGO AMD INTC CPU taking center stage now NVDA still healthy. Monthly base >ma10. Earnings will reignite. New highs sustained in June. 300 incoming q4. Mark it.

Since Nvidia's blowout earnings report in May 2023, every time semiconductors have made a new high without Nvidia confirming, it has served as an uncomfortable warning sign over the strength of the current trend. We are seeing similar signals this week, with $SMH up more than 30% over its October top while $NVDA is down 4%.⬇️ io-fund.com/ai-stocks/nvid…

Disagree. MP is the superior choice even at 10B MC. The discrepancy between USA Rare Earth (USAR) and MP Materials (MP) in 2028—where they share similar revenue targets but USAR shows roughly half the earnings—comes down to Profit Margins and Operational Maturity. While they are chasing the same dollars, their "cost to produce" those dollars is fundamentally different. Here is the breakdown: 1. Capital Intensity & Debt Servicing •USAR (The "Build" Phase): To reach that $1.2B revenue by 2028, USAR is currently spending billions on the Round Top (Texas) mine and the Serra Verde (Brazil) integration. By 2028, USAR will still be carrying the heavy interest payments and depreciation/amortization costs associated with building these facilities from scratch. •MP (The "Cash Cow" Phase): MP’s primary mine (Mountain Pass) has been operational for years. Much of their infrastructure is already "paid for." When they hit $1B in revenue, a much larger chunk of that money drops straight to the bottom line because their capital expenditure (CapEx) is shifting from "building" to "maintaining." 2. Ore Grade and Extraction Costs •MP’s Advantage: MP Materials owns one of the highest-grade rare earth deposits in the world. They can pull more value out of every ton of rock they move. Higher "grade" equals lower processing costs per kilogram. •USAR’s Challenge: The Round Top project in Texas is a "poly-metallic" deposit. While it has many valuable minerals (lithium, heavy rare earths), the concentration of rare earths is lower than at Mountain Pass. USAR has to process significantly more material to get the same amount of finished product, which eats into their profit margins. 3. The "Serra Verde" Factor (Royalties and Logistics) •USAR’s 2028 revenue is heavily dependent on their newly acquired Brazilian assets. Operating a trans-continental supply chain—mining in Brazil, shipping to the U.S., and processing in Oklahoma/Texas—introduces logistics, shipping, and potentially international royalty costs that MP (which does everything in the U.S. or via direct-to-customer magnet sales) doesn't have to face. 4. Vertical Integration "Tax" •MP is moving into Sintered Magnets, which is the highest-margin part of the entire rare earth value chain. By 2028, their Texas facility will be fully optimized. •USAR is also building magnets, but they are concurrently trying to master Ionic Clay processing (Brazil) and Hard Rock mining (Texas). Trying to scale three massive, distinct industrial processes at once is expensive and usually results in lower initial efficiency (and lower EPS) compared to a company focusing on a single, proven stream. The Bottom Line: MP is an optimized machine by 2028. USAR is a scaling giant that is still "buying" its growth through high operational costs. Investors often accept USAR's lower 2028 EPS because they believe the revenue growth will continue to skyrocket into 2030, eventually catching up to MP's efficiency.

@InTheAssembly $USAR is the only one where the marketcap is mispriced with the revenue scale they are forecasted at.

In August 2025, the US government purchased a 9.9% stake in Intel for $8.9 billion. Today, it’s worth $41 billion. What else are they holding? Here it is: MP Materials (+104%). Only domestic rare earth processor in the US. China controls 85% of global supply. USAR (+28%). The Department of Commerce took an 8% equity stake and gave it a $1.3 billion loan. LAC (+46%). Building one of the largest lithium mines in US history. TMQ (+90%). Copper and cobalt in Alaska. The government put $35 million in to fast-track permitting. Semiconductors, rare earths, lithium, copper, cobalt. Every single one is a supply chain China currently dominates. Do you notice the pattern? Every time the US government takes a position in a stock, it goes up. Because when the government becomes your customer, your lender, and your co-owner at the same time, the downside gets a lot smaller. These four names are still early. Intel already turned $8.9 billion into $41 billion. The question is not whether this strategy works, the question is which position moves next. We’re tracking their holdings in real time. The moment something interesting shows up, you’ll hear it here first. Turn on notifications.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Many people will wish they followed us sooner.

Good summary lol

@sam_gatlin AMD is more CPU than GPU currently

CPU stocks > GPU stocks

@SJD10304 Bears will see this and be like I knew the 25.59% drawdown was a lock.

Here's a fun, random, stat I've teased. Since 1960 (or even 1950), when the S&P 500 closes the month of April at a new all-time high monthly close, the remainder of the calendar years performance has never been negative. A perfect 17 for 17 for average returns of 10.35%. $spx