Jonathan Cronin

Hopium? Or plausible?

Hey guys! ☺️ Some have been asking for my projections for the next cycles on #XRP . Thought I would share it with all of you. Keep in mind that I measured for price only, NOT time. I used only the textbook/conservative targets and as the cycles develop, each of these targets will be adjusted with the actuals. (I deleted a lot of my work so that you're able to read the prices.) This is how many MACRO cycles it could take before #XRP breaks $100. Many waves, many corrections, many years. #Ripple Cycle 1 top: $3.65 ✅ Cycle 2 top: ~$8.68 Cycle 3 top: ~$22.50 Cycle 4 top: ~$59 Cycle 5 top: ~$153

Bitcoin is down ~47% from its October 2025 ATH of $126K. Fear & Greed at single digits. "BTC to zero” Google searches at 5-year highs. ETF outflows mounting. People are calling for $40K, even $25K. So I animated 15 years of drawdown data to put this moment in context. - - - Left: BTC price (log scale), colored by drawdown regime. Right: The distribution of every single day Bitcoin has spent at each drawdown depth from an ATH, built up in real time as price evolves. Importantly, the distribution evolves and is not static - the peaks/valleys grow over time - but what is the trend in how they’re evolving? This tells you something important about what Bitcoin is becoming. - - - There are 3 predominant drawdown regions: 🟢Green = 0 to -15% (Regime 1) ⚪️White = -15% to -35% (Transition) 🔴Red = ≤ -35% (Regime 2) Watch it build. 2011: -92.7% bottom. The histogram is a thin red smear. Almost all of Bitcoin's short existence spent deep underwater. 2013-2015: Another cycle, another -72% drawdown. The distribution fills in a fat red tail between -60% and -80%. Over 1,500 days in drawdown. Most of them brutal. 2017: BTC makes a brief ATH at $11,562, but the histogram tells us that with 2,524 drawdown days, red still dominates. Bitcoin had spent most of its life getting punished. 2018: -78.4%. The -60 to -80% band fills in further. Again, Bitcoin getting punished. This has been the story of the old Bitcoin. Then something shifts. By 2021, the green bars near 0% start growing much more. Bitcoin is beginning to spend more time near its highs than it used to. The distribution is migrating left. 2022 bottom: -68.5%. Still deep, but shallower than every prior cycle bottom. Each cycle's worst drawdown has gotten less severe: -92.7% → -87% → -84% → -77% → -68.5% The floor keeps rising, the green keeps growing, and the red tail is still there - but it's shrinking as a share of the whole. The transition zone is gaining more share too, but still markedly less time there than red or green (for example we just recently spent nearly 90 days in this zone after the Oct ‘25 ATH). This is what maturation looks like in the data. Not the absence of drawdowns, but the gradual compression of their severity and the accumulation of time spent near highs. - - - So where are we now? Down ~47% from $126K. Sentiment is the worst since June 2022. Everyone's asking if this is 2018 again. Probably not. Bitcoin has spent a structurally larger share of time in Regime 1 than ever before, especially in this cycle. Green-white oscillations are replacing the deep red plunges. The dives into Regime 2 are getting shallower. We could still go lower from here, but the data is compressing the downside, cycle over cycle. Whether the market believes that right now is a different question… - - - Worth a boomark 📙, as you might need to come back to this a few times to digest 🧠

To me it would only further confirm we've been in a bear market al along and I would actually be looking for a bottom and not further downside. The problem I have with the $74k confirming bear market group of people is that this confirmation comes when Bitcoin is ALREADY $50,000 down from the top. It's literally back at the previous cycle all time high again which is historically a great support or bottom area. The goal is to spot the trend reversal sooner and not just wait on the monthly (daily and weekly front-runs this). The only nuance I see to this story from MY perspective and thesis is that we will resemble the 2019 correction more than the traditional 2018 and 2022 bear market corrections. Both in lower magnitude and time (including diminishing corrections as 70-80% won't work like a clock forever). Meaning the current downtrend will last less long before things get better. And totally won't represent a move back to 40-50k like some people suggest. It would just be ~ 70k for me (not exact ofcourse). I do want to add that I don't know if we'll necessarily get to ~70k. The chart below is just my bottom target scenario if we continue the downtrend. I still don't like how Bitcoin's price action looks though (made that clear this week) and my system prevents me from entering any big new positions untill this downtrend clears.

ONE question that turns you into a CRUSHER “What does villain have to do for me to ... ?” 👉bluff my entire range 👉fold all of my bluffcatchers 👉herocall my entire range 👉bluff 3-bet any2 👉4-bet my entire range 👉Overfold vs 3bets Study like this and you’ll build insane exploits -fast. This is how you become a monster in exploitative poker. You will realise how often you end up being in spots where you have to execute such strategies. You are missing out on big exploits that hurt your winrate!

most players stay broke doing what everyone else does. i bet the "standard size" for years before i figured this out. we open KhJh to $25 CO, BTN calls. flop ($57) Ah8h3s. we check. BTN checks back. turn ($57) 4h. flush comes in. i used to bet $30-40 here. the "standard size." but what the hell does that accomplish? it's horrible. now i ask: what did villain check back on this flop? ace high boards are the one spot in live poker where players check back top pair most. when the board is 9 high, they're almost never checking back top pair. this is different. they have less turns to be scared of. so they show up here with A9s, A7s, A5s way more than you'd think. next question: what folds to a small bet that calls a big one? pocket pairs? fold to any size. aces? call any size. so if weak hands fold regardless and strong hands call regardless... why bet small? we overbet $125 into $57. villain calls. stop betting half pot because "that's what everyone does." when they check back on boards where they'd check back top pair at a decent frequency, that's when to go huge. they didn't check back top pair to fold to one bet. punish them.

Every single sign you need is there. Every single chart that matters is signalling to you the underlying liquidity shift and overall economic position. And it all points one way.... up Right now we have COPPER making new highs and entering price discovery. COPPER performs best in periods just preceding and during economic expansion because it is the main metal used in all forms of infrastructure and development. Which happen to be during times of liquidity expansion. And as you can see, TOTAL3(alts), move in a very close lock step pattern with it. That is not a coincidence guys. Crypto is always the last horse to run in times of overall expansion as it is the riskiest asset class in the world. But eventually, liquidity finds it way, as we can see... And this time will not be different.

“There is just a lot more upside” XRP Day at CNBC

🚨 SILVER SHORT JUST BECAME MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE BofA and Citi combined are short 4.4 billion ounces of silver. Global annual production? 800 million ounces. These two banks would need to buy every single ounce mined on planet Earth for the next 5.5 years straight just to cover their positions. No jewelry. No solar panels. No electronics. Nothing else gets any silver. And here's the problem: industrial demand already eats up 60% of annual supply. The actual investable float is tiny. They're not shorting a market with real inventory behind it. They're shorting phantom supply that doesn't physically exist. So how did this happen? Rehypothecation and unallocated accounts. Bullion banks lease the same physical bar to multiple clients. You buy "silver exposure," they take your cash and use it to suppress COMEX prices. Works great until someone actually wants delivery. The moment a sovereign wealth fund or major industrial buyer demands physical metal at scale, the system breaks. There isn't enough real silver to back the paper contracts they've sold. This isn't like the Hunt Brothers in 1980. That was two guys trying to corner the market by buying physical. This is the opposite. Major institutions have naked shorted five times the annual planetary output of a strategic metal. When this unwinds, COMEX will probably invoke force majeure. Cash settlement only. "Sorry, we can't deliver the metal we sold you. Here's cash at yesterday's closing price." But the real physical metal? That'll be trading somewhere completely different. You'll see market bifurcation. Paper price stays suppressed and managed. Physical price goes vertical. If you're holding a contract and not the actual metal, you're holding paper promises from banks that are short 5.5 years of global production. That's the position. No precedent for this at current scale. When the squeeze starts, paper and physical will price two entirely different realities.

Most people think price in crypto is the result of organic buying and selling. It isn’t. Price is a negotiation between liquidity and intent - and in crypto, liquidity is thin, fragmented across countless CEXs/DEXs, and remarkably easy to influence. A market maker isn’t a shadowy villain with a big red button. In theory, their job is simple: provide bids and asks so trading can happen smoothly. In practice, where that liquidity is placed, how dense it is, and when it’s added or removed matters more than almost anything else. In traditional markets, liquidity is deep, regulated, and spread across massive venues. In crypto, liquidity often lives in a few pools with large gaps in between. When they want price to move, it doesn’t glide - it jumps. It falls through empty space or accelerates upward once resistance disappears. This is how price can be pushed down without massive selling. Pull liquidity below price and even moderate sell pressure can cause a cascade. The chart looks like panic, but structurally it’s just gravity doing its thing. The same mechanics work in reverse. Stack liquidity strategically, absorb sells, and allow buyers to hit thin air above. Once overhead liquidity is removed or exhausted, price doesn’t need explosive demand to rise - it simply travels to the next available pocket. That’s how you get slow, controlled climbs that suddenly turn into vertical moves with no obvious catalyst. Derivatives amplify all of this. Perpetuals introduce leverage, leverage creates liquidation levels, and liquidation levels become magnets. When too many traders lean the same way, price doesn’t move because the market is “wrong.” It moves because clearing those positions is profitable and mechanically easy to the powers that be. This is why you see clean stops run below support and euphoric breakouts above resistance that immediately accelerate. The market isn’t reacting - it’s being guided through liquidity. To newcomers, this feels fake. Compared to traditional equities, it kind of is. But that doesn’t make it evil or unwinnable. It just means you stop asking why price moved and start asking who benefited from the move, and what liquidity was cleared or created as a result. Once you understand that price follows liquidity - not narratives, not indicators, not opinions - charts stop looking as chaotic. They start looking intentional. And once you see that, you’re no longer trading the story. You’re trading the structure. 🫡 From the depths — The White Whale 🐋

⚡️The “DoorDash lifestyle” is an artifact of three massive structural shifts older generations don’t see because they didn’t grow up inside them. Let’s break the illusion. 1. The marginal cost of money changed for Gen Z For older adults, spending thirty dollars feels like spending thirty dollars. For kids today, the psychological cost is closer to: “three microtransactions worth of friction” Because their financial environment is built on: •instant digital payments •low-commitment gig incomes •parents transferring money fluidly •side hustles paid in irregular small bursts •stimulus-era normalization of cash flow volatility Teenagers today often have: •$30 now •$0 tomorrow •$50 on Friday •$15 in crypto •$70 in Cash App from someone they did homework for •a $20 Venmo from grandma •$60 from a weekend shift There is no “budget.” There is flow. And in a flow economy, a $30 DoorDash order is not a “luxury”. It is just another digital outflow in a stream of constant micro inflows. 2. Consumption is now social currency Older generations spent money to solve problems. Gen Z spends money to signal identity, reduce friction, and avoid emotional drag. DoorDash is not about food. It is about: •eliminating effort •eliminating planning •eliminating discomfort •eliminating logistics •eliminating decision fatigue This generation pays premiums to remove negative psychic load. Food delivery is an anxiety-management subscription. And they learned this from: •Amazon Prime •Uber •TikTok dopamine tuning •frictionless apps •the collapse of effort-based value signals Convenience is the default baseline now. 3. The middle class collapsed, but lifestyle costs decoupled from income This is the part most boomers and Gen X don’t understand. Kids aren’t behaving like they’re poor. They’re behaving like people living in a post-middle-class economy where: •ownership is dead •savings are pointless •buying a home is impossible •college is a debt sentence •inflation destroys the dollar •wages do not map to adult milestones •upward mobility is gone So what happens? They shift to a present-maximization mindset. If the future is unaffordable anyway, why not buy the burrito now? Younger people are not reckless. They are rational inside a broken incentive system. The real truth DoorDash is a symptom. A society where: •future stability is gone •wages stagnate •housing is unattainable •attention is fragmented •convenience is normalized •friction feels archaic •everything is mediated digitally …will produce kids who treat $30 like a tap on a screen, not a financial decision. They’re not “funding a lifestyle.” They’re surviving inside the economy they were handed.

Everyone seems to be perplexed that BTC suddenly stopped following M2. The reason this chart is broken is because liquidity that never actually reaches the markets can't bid up price. It's a market plumbing issue. BTC responds to who HAS the liquidity, not just how MUCH exists in aggregate. You'll notice the correlation broke at almost the exact moment the RRP was run down. That was the moment we saw the TGA start sucking market tradable liquidity out of the system. Although global M2 still went higher the liquidity layer that actually touches the market trended lower due to the rebuild. On top of this crypto as a whole and especially altcoins responds more to YOY liquidity MOMENTUM not just global M2 heading higher. AKA how fast is liquidity rising or falling. I've highlighted this before but every single altseason and major bull run lines up perfectly with YOY liquidity momentum exploding higher. This is why alts have felt dead and not comparable to past cycles. There hasn't been enough momentum in liquidity for it to spill over into alts. That and BTC has been driven primarily by a really strong narrative coupled with ETF flows which basically for the first time allowed access into boomer retail money. The M2 BTC chart should start to correlate again once we see market tradable liquidity start to move higher as well. I believe our next major burst in YOY liquidity is due for 2026. This will be crypto's first 5 year cycle.

I've brought up the business cycle a few times this year but it always falls on deaf ears. People simply want to believe and debate misinformation and fud rather than spend time learning what's really going on. Everybody on CT is talking about the 4 year cycle right now but very few understand it. Here is everything you need to know: $BTC is a macro asset and I've pointed this out often, it DIRECTLY follows the USA business cycle. What's the business cycle you ask? The business cycle is a measurement of U.S. economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at manufacturing firms across the US. The United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data tracks this business cycle. And this data is released monthly. On the chart which plots the ISM PMI, every $BTC top DIRECTLY matches the expansion phase & peak of the business cycle. But right now, we haven't even started the expansion phase. So what does it all mean? --> It means that the current business cycle is taking much longer to play out than it has in the past. Which simply means for everybody here, the $BTC top will also take longer to play out.

LET ME EXPLAIN YOU HOW #BINANCE AND WINTERMUTE FUCKS ENTIRE CRYPTO MARKET: - In the past 30 days alone: $34.5 billion traded between the two. - Binance sends $10–$100 million chunks of BTC, ETH, SOL to Wintermute wallets hours before every major dump. - Wintermute then market-sells on Binance, triggering cascading liquidations. Oct 10 “Flash Crash” playbook (repeated 4× in 2025): - 04:00 UTC: Wintermute receives $700 million from Binance. - 04:30 UTC: Spot sell walls appear on every pair. - 05:00 UTC: $19 billion longs liquidated in 90 minutes. - 06:00 UTC: Wintermute buys back at -30 % discount. Binance pockets the funding-rate fees; Wintermute pockets the spread Today – same script - 4:00–18:00 UTC: Binance → Wintermute → $1.14 billion BTC dumped - Result: $1.16 billion liquidations while Powell was still speaking! Retail longs wiped; whales refill at the bid.

While many think there’s something wrong with crypto or altcoins because it’s not following the “four year cycle”, the truth is there’s never been a real four year cycle. It’s always been a coincidence that people link to Bitcoin’s halving. Every crypto bull and bear market actually follows economic cycles, not supply or halving events. If you look at the ISM PMI, which measures business expansion and contraction, you’ll see that every major crypto expansion happened when the PMI was rising, when liquidity was flowing and the environment was risk-on. Right now the PMI has been stuck at range lows for the longest time on record. That means the economy has been neutral or contracting, and risk assets like crypto have been held underwater. But make no mistake, it will soon expand again. Think of the crypto market as a balloon under water. The moment PMI expands again, liquidity returns and that balloon shoots up. After this long of a range, the breakout could be explosive, leading to a blow off top. Forget the halving. Watch the cycle.

Actually, obligatory: Two economists are walking in a forest when they come across a pile of shit. The first economist says to the other “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The second economist takes the $100 and eats the pile of shit. They continue walking until they come across a second pile of shit. The second economist turns to the first and says “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The first economist takes the $100 and eats a pile of shit. Walking a little more, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, then you gave me back the same $100 to eat shit. I can't help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing." "That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $200!"

Here’s a quick example related to my previous post on psychology in the market. Just by looking at this chart, I was anticipating that once $ETH reaches a new all-time high, the price is likely to face resistance. Why? Because people notice, hear about it, and the media is ready to hype it: “OMG, ETH hits a new ATH! maybe it jumps to 8k or 10k overnight!” As usual, the market often reacts in the opposite direction. After the initial hype comes the “sideways phase,” where traders are split some bullish, some bearish uncertain of the next move. Finally, after the trend becomes clear, the opposite of FOMO sets in: FEAR, People start panicking, selling their holdings, and calling for lower prices. I’m already seeing this with some predicting ETH will drop to 2,500. I’m not saying it’s impossible I’m just pointing out that the majority sentiment is often wrong. This psychology pattern can be observed from multiple perspectives. For example, this summer, when everyone thought the market would be boring, ETH surged from 2k to nearly 5k. Most people were on vacation, paying little attention to the markets. Then, when summer ended, they woke up to see ETH at 5k. What does the human mind do? “I missed it let me buy now.” And just like that, the market reversed into their buying pressure, exactly as I predicted: people chasing prices often end up buying at the wrong time, and now they are selling at the wrong time.

what's more important: sounding smart at the table or making money? theory does one of these things. exploitation does the other. theory can't see: - the nit who won't 3bet without premiums - the whale who never folds top pair - the fish who gets to every river capped and is never calling an overbet if you're paying attention, you can exploit all of that. sound smart or make money. pick one.

Everyone says “buy the dip” – until it actually dips. Then they panic. Just follow the data. It’s not that hard. When Bitcoin is in a bull market (price above the yellow zone), pullbacks are buying opportunities. I made this simple indicator (don't ask me for it, it's really simple :)). And it doesn’t even matter what moving averages you use – for example, below the weekly EMA50 and above the EMA200 = buy. Follow the data, not the emotion.

if someone checks back 8 high on the river after you called flop and turn, he just told you EVERYTHING. he's underbluffing rivers. which means when he bets, his range is way too strong. but most players still won't fold. they'll think "maybe he'll bluff next time" and keep calling with second pair until they've seen him check back air 10 more times. that's the leak. waiting for a preponderance of evidence. if someone's giving up with 8 high, is it more likely they're underbluffing or bluffing at the appropriate frequency? you know the answer. fold every bluff catcher. every single one is losing money. the edge isn't knowing underbluffers exist. it's exploiting them immediately when you spot one.

Stable Coin Mint: 5 min ago @tether issues another $1b $USDT