JDNB

@octonion [2510.08418] A Resource Theory of Gambling covers most of the points in your tweet I think. arxiv.org/abs/2510.08418

High-level, my manifesto is that Kelly wagering is fundamentally a problem of information geometry and entropic projection, which is exposed by shifting to Arrow-Debreu state-priced wealth coordinates. This builds coherent machinery for solving problems and exposing structure.

@JMftbl Its look really nice, how are you planning to get 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 data?

♟️ I built a Manager Elo system for football coaches (2015-2024) The same rating system used to rank chess grandmasters - applied to elite managers See how your favourite manager ranks 🔗 manager-elo.streamlit.app

@p0lywhales @Polymarket what happened?

"Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 11m?" Price spike on @Polymarket 40.7% move (0.70 → 0.98) -522m left polymarket.com/event/mercy-op…

@LinaBellOnPoly @elontweets_live His over 500 tweets now

Once bitten, twice shy. A trader placed an order at 0.1¢, and after repeatedly confirming the data from @elontweets_live , I confidently bought a large number of orders at 0.1¢. Now it has increased nearly 100 times.🤣

@LinaBellOnPoly @Polymarket Good job on your winnings!!

I just won $21,874.61 on @Polymarket! Join me and put your money where your mouth is: poly.market/j1Toc3z

@TraderFlameseN FFCM

This is precision. (CRT) A+ Setup that was caught by the FFC Model. Nothing on this chart was drawn, everything charted by my indicators. Candles Ranges, HTF Candles + FVG’s, SMT’s, CISD’s & more. Comment “FFCM” & I’ll send you the link to access this algorithmic specialty.

@mango_lassi @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade How did he/she get couple of shares at 1c ?

This Polymarket trader has been crushing it betting on sports He's up $1.8 MILLION 🔥 What does he know that we don't 🤔 Check his profile here 👉 @S-Works?via=mango-lassi" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@S-Works?via=m…

@cdikici71 @isdem37 Thank you for your answer, I was looking for this.

@JDNB92a @isdem37 5 minutes is too long, 1 minute is too short :)))) 30m/3m 👍

The new indicator is almost ready (not published yet). cd_sfp_Cx It includes: -Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) -CISD -MTG Blocks -Sessions -Key Levels (PXH, PXL) -Anchored VWAP -Alerts - Free -Open Source -And stray animals 🐶😽

@isdem37 @cdikici71 Why use 3 minutes instead of 5mins ?

@cdikici71 Every time I see you, I start coding. Creating useful things is always good 🙏🫶

@euanker Awesome story and massive achievement in getting 200k net profit

That brings me to today. A tidy $200k profit on Polymarket. It all started with a $10 loss and an inflated ego. The lesson here? It’s not about luck. It’s about finding edge, backing your judgment, and learning faster than the next person. What would I say to a new face on polymarket? 1 - Trust your opinion first but stay open to strong arguments on the other side. Don’t marry your position. 2 - Find your edge and stick to it. What are you already informed about? What market would you enjoy researching? 3 - Be the person who knows that market better than anyone else - and the rewards will follow. 4 - You can start small. Many of the best traders began with three-figure deposits.

11 months into my @Polymarket journey, I’ve crossed $200,000 in profit. From traditional gambling to prediction markets, here’s my story so far 👇

@top_jeet_ @wasabiboat @polymarketinfo You can still use Kelly with low liquidity and what is pmx ?

@wasabiboat @polymarketinfo there isn't enough liquidity on polymarket to do Kelly lol. pmx solves this

Not a single large polymarket trader I've interviewed for @polymarketinfo has ever admitted using kelly

@MarketW1zardry @Darwinexchange @DarwinexZero What does this mean?

Major update to VaR Explorer @ marketwizardry.org @Darwinexchange @DarwinexZero

@MarketW1zardry Worried about the daily timeframe

$TIP > 9000 rising from the depths

Any $TIP buyers? (indicators not fully initialized with closed market). Seems like a nice setup to me, low VaR/Ask ratio and in monthly zone. @DarwinexZero @Darwinexchange

@FCtrader88 @DarwinexZero @FCtrader88 any update on this?

Update on the @DarwinexZero account. We're 40% through the calibration phase. By end of next week we should be in the Darwinia silver phase. Trading on this account is executed at an ultra low risk. So profit gains aren't going to be anything insanely high. Just slow and steady consistent profits is the goal here. We will maintain this risk throughout this account to ensure the highest capital allocation possible. Let's see how much we can get out of it.

@JarrettYe This is big!

Yes. It's a milestone. It's interesting how they conducted the internal testing. The SRS Benchmark of Open Spaced Repetition is transparent and accessible. Contribution is welcome.

@EXM7777 Claude

Claude 4 just came out and it's hands-down the best writing model available... most people waste its potential by using TERRIBLE prompts that's why I'm sharing with you 10 super-prompts I use in my business to unlock Claude's writing genius, including: - landing page & product page copywriting - instagram reels, youtube shorts and tiktoks scripts - email & sms cold outreach sequences that converts the output is 10x better than any other LLM reply "claude" + follow me and I'll send it for free

@noblefrsh @alluring_damola @ABJoehh @FCtrader88 That is the basic version

@alluring_damola @ABJoehh @FCtrader88 Are you being serious? Is this really how he does it?

I'd probably self-destruct if I ever lose, but I never do.

@AlgoSnafu @alexbilz Was you able to find anyway to apply to trading?

@alexbilz A major frustration for me is that I've never been able to successfully apply Bruss's Odd Algorithm (Sum the Odds to One and Stop) to trading. researchgate.net/publication/38…

'Knowing When to Stop' - Theodore P. Hill on the mathematics of optimal stopping (PDF): gwern.net/doc/statistics…

@jolestar @JarrettYe There is

@JarrettYe 圣诞快乐。考虑下 ai agent + chain + anki 的玩法，我模糊觉得有机会。

笑死，今年第一个祝我圣诞快乐的是 Anki 的开发者哈哈。

@villainesthetic @SJosephBurns This looks interesting I will test it.

@SJosephBurns for those who trade with a prop here is an interesting tool i made based on Kelly Criterion and Compound Effect, it changed my trading tenfolds anas1412.github.io/propfirms-risk…

Risk management keeps you in the game.