John Derpanopoulos

@nntaleb @SecScottBessent "The pro terror flotila" aka the food donors to the starving prisoners.

@SecScottBessent Bessent will stay in history as a piece of shit.

The pro-terror flotilla attempting to reach Gaza is a ludicrous attempt to undermine President Trump’s successful progress toward lasting peace in the region. Treasury will continue to sever Hamas’ global financial support networks, no matter where in the world they are.

@badcharts1 Agree with your point. As a possible retrace level I would look at the neckline which connects the 1980 high with the 2011 high.

Truth About The Gold & Silver Miners. Yes, they had a great run. Most of our winning trades have been miners in the past year. But that seems done now. I wouldn't trust anybody that can manage to spin this as a lower risk, higher reward "BUYING" opportunity.

@SimonDixonTwitt @peruvian_bull Be carefull with the assets you own, though. If emergy prices double ( which I expect ) most financial assets will depreciate.

If I were Trump and about to announce a deal with Iran, I’d time it alongside the SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs. If I were Goldman Sachs, I’d want to collect my fees at the highest valuation possible. This is the biggest bubble since the 1999 dot-com era. Bond yields are at levels last seen in 2007, pushing mortgage rates to unsustainable levels. I think they can pump this bubble much further by timing the announcement of a deal with Iran. Don’t get me wrong. This bubble still has a long way to go. But it is a bubble, and China knows how to pop it if they want to. There’s also a massive money print waiting on the other side of this bubble. This will be the largest wealth transfer in modern history. And the financial-industrial complex knows it. If you don’t own assets, you only experience the higher energy prices. The K-shaped economy is pushing both sides to their extremes. Timing this market is not going to be easy, but the FIC wins and Main Street looses. By design.

Similarly I would naively expect oil to consolidate around,$150 before rampaging higher again. I would venture to guess $200 minimum.

This means the spec game hasn't even started. Like in the case of silver, it wont' t happen until oil unambiguously clears the last (2920-21) highs of $140 ($30 in silver's case). Note: silver didn't started accelerating until it consolidated for a while around $35.

Namely in silver, while not by any means extreme, specs were long against the commercials. In oil, swap dealers are short against producers who are long (can you believe that!).Specs are small long and not nearly as much as the producers.

The oil market reminds me of silver in 2025-early 2026. It was the most "hated" rally rhat I have experienced. Frequent dumps by the usual suspects trying to paint the tape as bearish esp. during Comex hours. The only (and big) difference being posistioning.

@KingKong9888 That coyld work both ways in establishing a floor on gold.

@JJDerpa They managed to ensure the structural integrity of the U.S. Treasury system without letting it get out of hand. Not this time (unless they use the Gold lever, that might buy them some time).

⭕️ Operation Twist (a form of Yield Curve Control) ⭕️ Quantitative Easing (The Fed buying US Treasury bonds and MBS) ⭕️ China, the EU, and Japan all massively bought US Treasury bonds. All happened around the same time. This is what it took to put Humpty Dumpty “back together again” and kick the can down the road back in 2009–2012… #Gold dumped from around $1,900 to $1,100.

@KingKong9888 What does he mean by the gold lever?

@DarioCpx Why aren't oil prices higher? Because the specs are not in the game (yet). Basis the CFTC, producers(!) are long big time while swap dealers (banks or the gov.) are short big. W/o specs markets don't go up.

Well written, substantiated, and straightforward - Highly recommended read, especially to all those who still live in the La La Land of stock markets 👇🏻

@Bogachan_1971 True, it's a shit show with an expiry date soon. They've lost the bond market already (above 5.03 on 30's) and are waiting for the rest of the chickens to roost.

FED BIDS FOR 30-YEAR BOND TOTAL $5.9 BLN When FED buys bonds, it is not mark to market... it becomes an overnight instrument. When banks buy bonds and hold to maturity.... they become overnight instruments... When speculators buy stocks on margin... they are overnight instruments... Entire system after Libor got retired become overnight funded by #FederalReserve. This is how Emerging Markets like Turkiye operated forever. Turkiye never had enough savings to operate its system. Therefore, banks always borrowed in overnight market to lend to government or private sector. Every 5-10 years, it blew up. USA also blew up after 2022.. #GOLD went from $1850 to $5500 between Jan 2024 till few months ago... that's a blow up of a reserve currency. When Turkiye blows up, overnight rates skyrocket, no bid for bonds and stocks crash... none of these happened yet because we haven't seen how a reserve currency blows up before... we don't know the dynamics. However somethings are certain.... USD still an operation currency... but not a saving currency anymore. Rest of the world keep moving away from US Dollars. Meanwhile, US "authorities" focus only on kicking the can instead of figuring out a solution. We observe the same pattern with #Hormuz closing... while China kept its reserves, US and the fools kept releasing reserves pretending everything is fine and delaying response to what they did with oil supplies. What will they do when we run out of reserves? Same with bond yields... they can keep buying back to FED and Treasury and use fronts in Caymans and support them by bidding up futures but eventually that will all add to money supply and will push everyhing up... like commodities now... Worst part is... what will they do when they need to shrink money supply... they cannot raise rates because that would tumble the stock market... which means more money supply leaked back into the system. There is no instrument left to mop out all that money if stocks start to leak.. you only have overnight instruments... that's when #GOLD will stop trading negative with risk off and start climbing rapidly... what I am describing here will prove even to herd that their execution monkey running the Treasury was clueless all along.... once it starts... it will take a few days to create an avalanche... that's how it did in Turkiye or other EM before... So far it looks like October-November but can happen earlier depending on oil prices.

@adamtaggart "Neutral" as in hosting US bases?

I'm sure I'm going to regret wading back into the fray, but here goes... I'm hearing a lot of people say, "The US attacked Iran unprovoked, so of course Iran has the right to seize the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is just defending itself." First off, "the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz...are governed by international maritime law and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)" britannica.com/question/Who-o… Second and more important, since when has it ever been acceptable to attack or hold hostage neutral parties, in war or otherwise? Spoiler alert: NEVER Your enemies are fair game in war. But NOT neutral parties. Again, NEVER. If I'm wrong here, please some one show me historical precedent. But Iran's attempted taking hostage of the Strait and the ships of neutral nations held captive there, threatening them with deadly violence should they attempt to transit, flies in the face of this. Honest question: why do so many people see this as acceptable?

@MELETOPOULOS1 @JGrant5291453 Την εκτίμηση την κάνει λόγω της συμμαχίας Ελλάδας -Ισραήλ.

@JGrant5291453 με ΟΚΕΚΕΠΕ, υποκλοπές, βιβλική καταστροφή Θράκης, Θεσσαλίας, Εύβοιας, Αττικής, πτώση της αγοραστικής δύναμης στον πάτο της ΕΕ, διάλυση της εκπαίδευσης, έκρηξη βίας, εξαγορά νησιών από γείτονες κλπ., δεν καταλαβαίνω πώς κάνετε αυτήν την εκτίμηση.

Η Ελλάς έχει την ευτυχία να έχει τον καλύτερο πρωθυπουργό της μεταπολίτευσης και τη δυστυχία να έχει τη χειρότερη αντιπολίτευση από ιδρύσεως Ελληνικού κράτους.

@RealPeterLinder I am more in the $200 camp.

I expect WTI oil price to hit $120 before it hits $95. Anyone out there smart enough and invested enough in oil stocks to agree with me?

@poirazis What kind of a question is that?

Are the Israeli weapons stationed in Greece and Cyprus operated by the Greeks or by IDF ?

@nntaleb I am an economist and fully agree with your statement.

More evidence (from the ratio) that the only people who like economists are economists.

@dampedspring Why in your opinion are sawp spreads so persistently wide?

With fixed pay legs of 10 Year swaps recieving 3.93% with swap spread at 43bp with Kim term premium at 65bp Leveraged bond buyers only get 23bp of expected return vs cash. This on a 5% vol item. Sharpe Ratio of .23/5= 0.046. Why in gods name do people want leveraged treasuries so bad. If that sharpe ratio is the expected risk adjusted return built into all assets where is the upside for portfolios

@JesseCohenInv Manipulation

What do you call this chart pattern?

@MelMattison1 Only reason would be that global tanker storage is exhausted.

If I'm reading this chart correct, we are at 4.7 billion barrels in current inventories, above most prior years. What is the warning? Seems like we've got oil to spare...