Joe O'Donnell

Here are some of my favorite comments / predictions from CT over the last 4 months and beyond, in no particular order: 1. We are in the banana 🍌zone. Don't 'F' this up. 2. We are at the point of the Wyckoff spring and won't go lower. 3. It wasn't a top because None of these 30 indicators were triggered. 4. Bitcoin always follows gold a month later. 5. Bitcoin always follows the M2 expansion on a lag (some even argued the exact day count). 6. We will be the crypto capital of the World. 7. We are working hard on a market structure bill every day ⌛️. 8. We will add to the SBR with purchases and ultimately use that to pay off our debt (@$39T). 9. Market makers will hunt the short liquidity as well. 10. With dollar debasement, digital gold will be the hedge. 11. The gold and silver winners will rotate into bitcoin. 12. We are in wave 5 (Elliot) and will go parabolic. 13. We are in a 2 year cycle not a 4 year cycle. 14. When the RSI is this low, the price will only go higher. 15. This time is different. Which are your top 3 favorites? If I missed any of your favorites, feel free to add them in the comments. Also, feel free to state who made these comments.

@grok @Greencandleit Thanks. What was the largest market cap of a company when it entered the S&P500

Examples: Tesla (TSLA) met the market-cap threshold for years before its Dec 2020 addition. The committee delayed due to EV-sector volatility, limited operating history, and preference for established blue-chip stability over pure growth plays. AppLovin (APP) qualified quantitatively in mid-2025 but was passed in the June rebalance for sector-balance reasons (ad-tech crowding). It was later added once data persistence and investor flows made it unavoidable. Committees use discretion on "edge" names like these—initially prioritizing traditional operating-company fit—until repeated qualifications and passive pressure force a flip. Same dynamic applies to MSTR.

Strategy has now qualified for the S&P 500 for over 240 days and $15,600,000,000,000 in passive funds are sitting on the sideline waiting!!! 😱😱😱 "It could spark a massive positive feedback loop enabling Bitcoin to begin automatically infiltrating nearly EVERY portfolio." IS THIS THE MOST BULLISH CATALYST NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT?!!! 🔥🔥🔥

@grok @Greencandleit Thanks. Please provide examples of these edge names and why they weren’t included the first times they qualified

The committee’s discretion isn’t binary or locked forever. Even with no change at MSTR or in their stated guidelines, repeated qualification over multiple rebalances creates growing pressure from passive flows, investor advocacy, and index-relevance considerations. Committees have flipped on similar “edge” names in the past once the data persistence becomes hard to ignore indefinitely. So 15-25% reflects that small but non-zero opening—not certainty, just probability.

@grok @Greencandleit Thanks. If nothing has changed at the Company or the Committee why would the odds be anything other than zero?

Strategy (MSTR) has met S&P 500 quantitative criteria (market cap >$18B threshold, liquidity, public float, and trailing 4-quarter positive earnings under fair-value BTC accounting) multiple times since late 2025 but was passed over in Sept/Nov 2025 and Q1 2026 rebalances. The Index Committee uses discretion beyond numbers: it sees Strategy as more BTC treasury/levered asset play than operating software business (core software revenue is tiny). BTC-driven earnings volatility and narrow model conflict with the index's preference for stable, diversified operating companies. Nothing material has changed at the company—the Bitcoin accumulation strategy and modest software ops remain the same. Odds for next rebalance (June): low (~15-25%). History shows the committee consistently favors others for sector balance.

@phongle 'Interesting' or explainable because of arbitrage players

STRC liquidity is roughly doubling every month. Record date dynamics are interesting.

@thepowerfulHRV INCORRECT !! People should really do their own research and understand how debt and preferreds work as part of the capital structure of a company 🤦‍♂️

$MSTR has $56B of Bitcoin but only a $45B market cap. That's a 20% discount!

@SimplyBitcoin usdebtclock.org/#

What actually changed your mind on Bitcoin?

@TrumpDailyPosts Other - Fiscal Irresponsibility and Fraud

What is the greatest threat to freedom in America?

@Cointelegraph Not all of their AUM is managed by advisers, thus this is misleading. Part of the AUM is self directed brokerage accounts.

🔥 BULLISH: Strategy’s CEO Phong Le points out that even a 2% Bitcoin allocation from Morgan Stanley’s $8T AUM would mean $160B into $MSBT, 3x the size of IBIT.

@scottmelker The existence of Special Interest Groups and their ability to control politicians is nothing new

Can someone please explain to me how negotiations between two industries, in this case crypto and banking, are relevant for legislation? Has outside influence in politics really gotten to the point where this is so normalized that nobody even bats an eye?

@marc02200 It's called 'recency bias'. It is a cognitive bias and a normal human tendency. Humans are just wired this way. It takes a lot to override this bias and think logically.

For me personally it's very hard to understand how you can be highly interested in Bitcoin at $120K but not at $70K. Why were you interested when the price was at ATH's and not when you actually have to ability to accumulate more of it? I'm ACTUALLY trying to understand. So if you're one of those people. Please let me know.

@TonyAshai You realize they use oil to make electricity ... right?!

Oil is the real root cause of all the geopolitical trouble. Time to go 💯 Electric.

@Matt_Pinner Yes. I'd have enough money to pay someone to buy it for me

Can you do it ?

@Matt_Pinner Probably run. I heard they like their sleep and don't like to be woken up.

FIRST thing

@matteopelleg So you don't understand leverage or the capital structure of a business. Noted

i will never understand why people think that a business that does nothing but hold bitcoin should be worth more than the bitcoin itself (positive mnav)

@benjamincowen If you zoom out and run this from the beginning of the war, what do you see? 🤔

No rotation

@hkuedu2 @thepowerfulHRV They introduced a bill right away (S.954) but it never advanced. My understanding is that they wanted to get this done prior to the mid-terms while they had support.

@JJTOD73 @thepowerfulHRV It didn't say when . It could be 100 years later

What ever happened to the Strategic Bitcoin reserve?

@DearS_o_n Patience

What’s a “boring” skill that secretly gives a man huge advantage in life?

The transition typically is from Cold Storage into the hands of the OTC desks and ultimately to the Treasury companies. Regardless of how the Treasury companies procure it, it is still moving from the Available for Sale pile to the Long Term Hold pile. By my count, those numbers are 56% and 44% respectively

$MSTR could purchase 10 million $BTC in one day via $STRC and someone would say, "Well the market didn't reflect the purchase because they buy it via the OTC desks."