JK

@DelB0yTr0tter @gozamah Thank you for sharing 👍

I’m looking at the second order effects of this and more interested in margins. I think that’s where the real juice is from here on. Elevated prices are good for all producers but a major producer like XOM will see less margin expansion with prices at say >$110 (with costs at say $20-$30) than a minor producer with double the costs that was making $0 margin with oil at previous levels of around $50-$60 and is now realising a 100% margin expansion over night and printing positive cashflow, majority of which will trickle down straight to their bottom line because all their infra and capex is already in place. That’s where the asymmetric opportunity is in my personal opinion. Yes, XLE constituents will pay out but the fund’s markup is skewed heavily towards the big names and the real opportunity set is more nuanced from here and market hasn’t woken up to that reality yet. This is a perfect example of what I continually hammer the table on with “if I’m not early I’m not interested” This one is EARLY.

This is all that matters. Rest is theatre.

@BruceLe57833967 Great trade Joel well done 👍

I have cleared all my INTC position today. My total sell is 1.5 mill, profit is $900k with around 150% return. Waiting for next opportunity.

@DelB0yTr0tter To clarify, what I'm asking is are entries and exits shared for various positions? Because I am under the impression they are not, and what you are getting is broader information only

@DelB0yTr0tter Derek, I have seen you state numerous times that this is not a signal service, so how exactly are you entering/ exiting positions to get the 1.4 Sharpe conclusion? (Asking out of a place of curiosity and probably ignorance 🤣)

Show me another comp, anywhere in the world, that operates outside the hedge fund ecosystem and delivers 1.4 Sharpe based on over three years of factual market data and is fully accessible to any retail investor with a laptop and an internet conenction for the same price as a half decent gym membership costs in NYC in 2026. Every position. Every entry. Every exit. Published. Auditable. Down to the granular level. Let me go one step further and simplify this... 129.4% return in three years on autopilot. Just plug and play... how does that sound? Full track record: vivemacro.com/performance

@DelB0yTr0tter Great to hear that Derek, your posts are the only thing keeping me on X, thanks for continuing to share with us 🙏

I have mentioned this 4-5 times already. I will say it again for the last time and for the sake of completeness and avoidance of any doubt. Vivé is not a signal service. Everything I post on this account represents my personal views and will continue in exactly the same way as it always has. In order to uphold the integrity of the Vivé service and ensure every member receives maximum value from the moment they access the platform, I will not make any specific reference to whether my positions appear in the Vivé weekly portal. To do so would prejudice the members. Business as usual here on this feed, otherwise. Nothing will change.

@DelB0yTr0tter Thanks Derek 👍

I rolled these the day the 90 strike came out which I believe was less than 48 hours ago and it’s already up another 25%… lol oh stop it!

@DelB0yTr0tter Anything specific you're looking to roll?

another day of heavy rolling ahead

@DelB0yTr0tter @Vivemacr0 Is this yours Derek?

MACRO For the typical retail investor who has ever sat across from a macro PM and wondered how they actually think @Vivemacr0 is the closest I have seen anything come to replicating that lens. Not a tip sheet. Not a newsletter. A systematic macro framework that runs the same cross asset scoring process institutional managers run... applied to a universe of 260+ instruments across equities, commodities, rates, FX, and digital assets. Every score is model driven. Every conviction level is data derived. No opinions. No conjecture. I am not telling anyone what to do with it. I am not endorsing any position or outcome. This is not financial advice and should not be construed as such. All investment decisions remain entirely your own. What I am saying is this: if you want to understand how a professional macro framework processes markets - and build your own investment judgment within a structured, evidence based architecture that rivals the institutional standard - this exists and it is good. This is not subscription; it is in an investment and a potential journey for the right person who possesses the right mindset to embark on an educational journey with the right toolbox, the framework and the discipline. @Vivemacr0

@DelB0yTr0tter Been rolling this up. Today I rolled Dec 18 $30C to $37.5C collecting $1.50 per contract. This is pretty much a free position for me now. Thanks for your guidance 👍

NEW POSITION SM ENERGY Sleeping giant. Incredible chart Unbelievable valuation - on every metric Declining share count 0.30 debt to asset ratio 0.58 debt to equity 4.11% dividend yield Rising dividend per share since 2021 This is truly a monster… I will be very keen to exercise these calls as part of a long term portfolio.

@DelB0yTr0tter Rolled from the $70 strike to $80 today for $1.00 per contract 🥂

XLE Rolled 1,100 contracts ~ $0.40 credit per contract Keeping rest as is. I will consider rolling again at higher prices with the sole purpose of raising cash. I am squarely focused on raising max cash, opportunistically whilst maintaining full notional exposure.

@DelB0yTr0tter Understood 100%. Never took it as advice — just following along because your breakdowns are some of the best out there. Hurts to see these evaporate but that's the game. Thanks for continuing to post the full picture, wins and losses.

This is why I am reticent to express views (and avoid commenting) on direct requests for portfolio allocation and execution related questions. The risk of misinterpretation is very real and different people have varying skillsets and resources. Those variables directly affect outcomes. I am more than happy to share data, exchange ideas, and engage in open dialogue... that is the nature of this forum. But that is the extent of my involvement and I will not, under any circumstances, comment on execution, position sizing, or allocation. Those decisions are deeply personal, contingent on each individual's risk profile, capital base, and psychological makeup. That responsibility sits with you, and you alone.

@DelB0yTr0tter Not gonna lie these definitely hurt!

Being early is the same as being wrong. I show it all here. Not just the wins. I’m going to eat this loss and offset it against the 4x rounds of SILJ rolls which returned ~9x the capital invested in these short term calls. Intuition was not wrong in this case but the timing definitely turned out offside. Federer won more than 84% of his competitive matches with an average conversion of around 55% for points. The Crème de le crème of hedge fund managers on this planet have around the same % hit rate… ask Ken!

@DelB0yTr0tter Looking to open these this week but I want a better entry!

NEW POSITION MARCH 20, 2026 - POLICY DEADLINE OR MARKET CATALYST? reuters.com/world/us/us-ho… The Jan 20, 2026 Executive Order “Stopping Wall Street from Competing with Main Street Homebuyers” embeds hard implementation gates: ~30 days - Treasury definitions (≈ Feb 19, 2026) ~60 days - Agency guidance (≈ Mar 20–21, 2026) March is where policy transitions into enforceable market structure (scope + mechanics across federal/GSE channels). Refs: White House EO; Dechert; Manatt; HousingWire; TIME. OPTIONS MARKET IS ALREADY POSITIONING FOR THE WINDOW XHB (03/20/26 expiry dominates) 125C: 51,819 OI - Largest across ALL expiries 115C: 27,460 OI - 2nd largest across ALL expiries Downside hedges same expiry - 95P: 5,131 | 100P: 4,598 | 90P: 4,358 This is event window convexity layered over protection, not retail scatter. ITB (Same calendar magnet) 03/20/26 112C: 9,017 OI - Largest across ALL expiries 03/20/26 115C: 1,691 OI Notable Feb 2026 put complex: 02/20/26 105P: 3,175 OI Expiry sequencing aligns precisely with policy clocks: Feb - Definition risk (scope uncertainty) March - Guidance risk (implementation mechanics) WHY THIS MATTERS FUNDAMENTALLY Institutional buyers = meaningful marginal demand cohort post 2020. Constraints at the margin: Reduced competition for entry level SFR Demand sensitivity shifts toward traditional buyers Homebuilders = primary supply elasticity valve Refs: TIME (institutional demand dynamics). ADDITIONAL POLICY CONTEXT Reuters: Homebuilders exploring proposal for up to ~1M “Trump Homes” (~$250B potential construction activity) Implication - Builders positioned at the centre of affordability / ownership policy transmission. Ref: Reuters. INVESTMENT THESIS Policy deadlines - Market structure repricing - Builder fundamentals leverage - Equity convexity. Vehicles with direct sensitivity: XHB ITB Options chain analysts in the post below...

@DelB0yTr0tter I don't think you posted $VAL here but that was a great one 👍

RIG Judy announced acquisition of VAL Just about to roll VAL options to TP whilst maintaining full notional exposure

@DelB0yTr0tter Well said sir 🫡

SILJ THE FACTS THAT EVERYONE IS MISSING: Less than a year ago, average silver AISC ≈ $20/oz. At $25 silver, miners earned $5/oz. A 10M oz producer = $50m in annual operating profit. At $85 silver? Same producer’s Margin = $65/oz. Same producer’s operating profit = $650m. That’s a 1,200% increase in cash flow on a 240% move in the metal. This is operating leverage in its purest form. HISTORY IS CRYSTAL CLEAR: 2002 - 2011 silver bull market (facts): Silver: $4.60/oz in 2002, peaking at $47.94/oz in April 2011. Approximate gain of +900% at the peak. Pan American Silver (PAAS): approximately $3-$4 per share in 2002, peaking around $40-$45 per share in 2011. Equivalent to roughly 10-12×, or +900% to +1,100% at the peak. Silver miners (sector wide): historically ~3× the performance of the metal at cycle peaks, driven by operating leverage and earnings re-rating. Yet in 2025: Silver +300% SILJ ~+200% (relative underperformance) WHY? Analysts are still modelling $35-40 silver using backward looking val methods. That changes imminently as miners report earnings at today’s price during Q4 earnings. First Majestic is the textbook case: high beta, primary silver exposure, cost base largely fixed. Every $1 move in silver now drops disproportionately to free cash flow. Silver lags gold. Silver miners lag gold miners. That lag is not permanent. Physical demand is visible: Absolutely nobody can buy physical for $75 This is not a “trade”. This is a cash flow repricing event. When earnings print, the equity gap closes violently. That’s what I expect… Silver miners won’t just catch up after Q4 earnings… They are more than likely to overshoot and possibly lead during the next leg of this silver bull market

@DelB0yTr0tter Thank you Derek for taking the time to respond, love hearing your thoughts, really helpful as always!

It’s hard to build a probability weighted case where the market doesn’t read Q4 earnings from silver miners as constructive. Q4 wasn’t about headline revenue. It was about operating leverage. Higher realised silver prices vs Q3 flowed into a cost base that largely did not re-accelerate, while sustaining CapEx stayed broadly fixed. That combination drives non-linear FCF expansion... which should be rewarded handsomely by a fair and functioning market through higher cash flow multiples, improved capital allocation optionality, and a structurally higher valuation floor. What the market will focus on vs Q3: Free cash flow inflection EBITDA margin expansion per ounce AISC stability (or decline) Clean earnings backed by cash conversion Balance sheet improvement / deleveraging Capital allocation optionality emerging For producers, the sensitivity is extreme: incremental price moves drop straight to margins. For streamers and royalty names, higher prices translate almost one for one into cash flow. This earrings season for miners, if it goes according to my expectations, will not be a one and done quarter. Q4 will reset the 2026 earnings base... Higher margins + stable costs = structurally higher forward cash generation. Corrections do not invalidate the underlying facts. Optionality is asymmetric by design. When positioning is compressed and gamma is high while residual theta is thin, price moves can translate into outsized percentage gains very quickly. A 100%+ move in option value under those conditions is not theoretical; it is structurally possible. For full disclosure, all six positions are currently down more than 80%. I have no intention of exiting ahead of earnings. The position sizing reflects that reality. The base case is straightforward and probability driven: if one out of six positions realises its convex outcome, it fully recovers the initial capital deployed; for all six. From that point forward, the portfolio outcome is either pure upside or zero. That is an explicit, intentional payoff profile. This is not a trade built on certainty. It is built on asymmetry, defined risk, and event driven convexity. I will let earnings resolve the distribution.

@DelB0yTr0tter Do you still think those miner earnings plays will hit end of this month/ the next?

I see metals offered across the board for the next few months. The higher-probability path is lower first, not higher. Vol reset of some sort before next leg would be a good sign to look out for... Vol is still outrageously high despite the correction. That $12bn slush fund isn’t being deployed to chase highs. Serious money accumulates weakness, not headlines. Prices need to be marked down before any credible accumulation phase begins. Only then do Jamie and his boys et al step in, get positioned, and run it hot.

@DelB0yTr0tter We are back ❤️

SILJ

@DelB0yTr0tter Thanks Derek, 😁

That’s a wrap for tonight. It feels good to deploy meaningful capital after an extended period of sitting around, reading, thinking and waiting for the energy sector to show its hand. New positions throughout this week…

@DelB0yTr0tter Will do 🫡Tempted to add but will probably sit on my hands, thanks as always for all you share 😁

@JK6483 Holding every single one.

I fully expect these to explode in the next 4-5 weeks. We shall see…