John Ketcham

@reihan inspires all of us @ManhattanInst to think creatively and approach NYC's challenges constructively. Proud to work with exceptional colleagues to champion the policies that enable genius, enterprise, and dynamism in our beloved city and nation. wsj.com/opinion/reihan…

My Fellowship at @ManhattanInst has grown! I'm now a Cities and AI Policy Fellow. If you want to know how those things pair, here's how I think about them broadly: AI is not a discrete policy silo.* It touches almost everything. If you're writing about AI, you're almost always writing about AI "as it impacts [other policy area]." In that way, it's like the internet or electricity--it's a substrate and medium for our culture and institutions, inseparable from them. Opportunity abounds for the cities and states that reach out for it! * Usually, anyway. Stay tuned.

The core of the argument centers around the unlawful use of rent-stabilized pied-à-terres. The same restriction that eliminates the incentive for landlords to evict non-primary resident tenants also contributes to long-term vacant RS units. Restoring vacancy bonuses would thus address both issues.

@reihan @JKetcham91 The core of the argument is that there are vacant units off the market landlords don't want to rent and are re-using for other purposes, second homes, or just vacant. There is no discussion on why it isnt profitable for landlords to rent these units out

@reihan @Dan_From_Reddit Right—a “vacancy bonus” means a higher allowable rent increase upon vacancy, as existed pre-HSTPA. That’s not a vacancy tax, which I do not support.

@Dan_From_Reddit No, @JKetcham91 is not calling for a vacancy tax. He’s calling for a reform of HSTPA.

One argument for the pied-à-terre tax is that it will discourage the warehousing of housing units. Though the number of privately-owned $5M+ pieds-à-terre is negligible, the argument has a surface plausibility because there really is an “underuse” problem — it’s the tens of thousands of rent-stabilized units that are being used unlawfully as pieds-à-terre, despite the fact that the point of rent stabilization (I think?) is to provide stability to renters who need it. See @JKetcham91’s latest: city-journal.org/article/new-yo…

The entire future of investment in New York City's housing is at stake, and it's all connected to one case currently being litigated in federal court. Imagine investing $150mn into renovating a portfolio of buildings, according to state regulations that tell you that after doing so, your building will no-longer be subject to rent-stabilization (which is the only reason you make such an investment in the first place). Only for the state to turn around and change the rules after you've completed the investment and renovations, restoring the building completely. And for the state to disregard all former precedents and to tell you, ex-post facto, that the regulations at the time weren't in fact binding and that your building is still subject to rent-stabilization. That's what's happening in New York at the moment, and Peak Capital Advisors is challenging this in court. The effects could be immense: if an agency creates regulations intended to incentivize investment in housing according to state legislation, but can then change its interpretation after the fact, forcing a company into insolvency, then why would anyone want to invest in New York City again? New York needs more housing and developers want to build it. But they won't do so in an uncertain and arbitrary legal environment. Read my latest in @CityJournal below

The great @eric_kober has published a sobering look at private-sector jobs in NYC. NYC added just 13,000 private-sector jobs in 2025 — down from 95,000 the year before. Part of the story is home health care, where employment collapsed from 333,800 to 254,500 after the state reined in the notoriously mismanaged CDPAP program. That correction was overdue. But leave that aside and what remains is more concerning: an economy that has stalled at both ends of the skills ladder. At the white-collar end, the office-based industries that form the backbone of the city's tax base are barely moving. Financial services added 9,000 jobs, while professional and business services lost 600. At the blue-collar, retail trade gained just 100 jobs all year. Leisure and hospitality added 3,600. Construction and manufacturing lost 8,000 jobs. These are the industries that generate tax revenue, create opportunity for working-class New Yorkers, and signal whether New York remains a place businesses want to invest. Right now, the signs are not good, and Mayor Mamdani seems intent on making NYC less attractive to employers. Not ideal. city-journal.org/article/new-yo…

"As Mayor Zohran Mamdani seeks to fill his $5.4 billion to $7.1 billion budget hole, he has so far shown little willingness to cut Department of Education spending. But he’ll never balance the books if he keeps throwing good money after bad in the city’s public schools." My article with @JKetcham91 on why @NYCMayor needs to cut the DOE budget. nypost.com/2026/04/06/opi…

Trimming local housing regulations just incredibly hard in practice, @JKetcham91 writes thebiggerapple.manhattan.institute/p/new-york-bas…

If City Hall won’t make real spending choices, taxpayers will be asked to pick up the tab. This piece by @JKetcham91 of @ManhattanInst explains why. nypost.com/2026/03/29/opi…

How can the NY teachers union credibly demand that property taxes explode to pay for "tier equity" when it doesn't offer "tier equity" to its own employees at NYSUT headquarters?

Mamdani's City Hall didn't total up the approved savings in its release - maybe because it's relatively modest. Per my math, it's $48.3M in FY '26 and in $195.3M in FY '27. That's out of the more than $1.7B in *potential* savings *identified* by agencies. Goal: close a $5.4B gap.

@reihan True—rent at your own risk. But many two-family homeowners won’t bother adding an ADU since doing so would trigger the NYS Multiple Dwelling Law. The requirement to add costly upgrades like sprinklers to the entire house means it won’t pencil out for most. nyc.gov/site/buildings…

This sounds exciting and cool. A note of caution, however: In New York City, becoming a landlord—even in your own backyard—triggers a complex web of protections. From a property-rights perspective, the primary concern is whether a homeowner can regain control of their property if the tenant becomes "problematic" (non-payment, nuisance, or simply a bad fit). Small landlords and owner-occupied buildings are exempt from “Good Cause” protections, but if a tenant refuses to leave after their lease ends, you get to experience the joys of navigating NYC Housing Court. In case you’re wondering, “self-help” (taking it upon yourself to change locks, etc., to remove a problematic holdover) is unlawful. You need a court order or you’ll be guilty of a Class A misdemeanor. And while small owner-occupants are exempt from “Good Cause” for now, the DSA — correct me if I’m wrong — wants to universalize these protections. So before you spend hundreds of thousands on an “ADU for You” to unlock future rental income, consider your legal liability carefully. Consider the rise of problematic “professional tenants” who understand New York’s rent laws and how to make good use of them. And consider why the surge of investment Mayor Mamdani and his allies are hoping for might not materialize.

Who wants to work with me at the Manhattan Institute? We're looking for a new Economic Policy Fellow. The job will offer lots of opportunity for research, writing, outreach, and collaboration with some of the best policy scholars in the nation. Apply here! job-boards.greenhouse.io/manhattaninsti…

🚨There has been a lot of talk about the ROAD to Housing Act, but the White House just this afternoon dropped one of the strongest EOs on deregulating housing ever. It is big on stormwater, wetlands, NEPA, and other necessary reforms. Quick 🧵whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…

Standard day length in NYC DOE schools: 6 hours, 20 minutes (vs. national average of 7 hours) Class days: though 180 days are required under NYS law, a combination of staff development days, counting parent-teacher conferences as instructional time, and waivers for unexpected closures mean that NYC often hits 176 days. Out of 45 school weeks, 20 weeks are full five-day school weeks. I'm a big believer in public education. But it's important to remember that while it's the job of the unions (like it or not) to represent the interests of staff, it's the job of elected officials to represent the interests of students, families, etc. When elected officials are pushovers, the system doesn't work as well as it should.

Read the full report here: manhattan.institute/article/if-you…

Charter schools also had a better EROI than public schools, despite lower funding per pupil.

More ed funding does not always yield better student outcomes; that gap is greater than commonly understood. A @manhattaninst report from William Henson introduces Educational Return on Investment (EROI), a framework for assessing whether spending translates into achievement. 🧵