JoeMclean

War with no goals and no winners. Only losers on each side, cost of lives and money, and global price increases. Hormuz didn't matter. Then it did. Then it didn't. Now it's important again. 2 weeks of bombing and nothing has changed. So, is Hormuz important or not? I'm not celebrating any of these "deals." We've seen that Iran was attacked during negotiations before this war started. We've seen both sides fail to respect ceasefires previously. The MOU didn't last long either. For this conflict to end, it comes down to control of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH). Option 1 - It remains with Iran. The US would be seen as having lost a war it never should have started, and its allies in the region would be in a much worse position than before. Option 2 - The US takes control of it. The US could potentially win against Iran, but it would take a very long time, at a very high cost in money and human lives on both sides. Hard to believe the US would go this far. Option 3 - A new deal, like any other deal - what happens if one side doesn't respect it? We're back at square one. Option 4 - Trump blocking the SoH adds pressure on Iran, but it's not real leverage long term. Before this war, SoH flow was fine. This war is what pushed Iran to take control of it. How does Trump win here? Or make a deal? My guess is he'll try to make it look like a good deal for the US before the midterms. After that, I'm not sure there's a clean solution to this conflict. Main losers: consumers worldwide. Fuel prices will likely stay elevated for a while. Is there a real risk of a global economic slowdown, even a recession? Everything's on the table. I don't see an easy end to this conflict, and I can't see a clear path where Trump achieves his goals (not even sure what those are anymore). But Iran arguably has a better position now than it did in February. I don't believe either side's claims about destroying the other's capabilities. That's politics and war strategy talking. Both sides lie on purpose to mislead the other and reassure their own population. TLDR - do not celebrate too early. I hope the conflict ends asap, but it's hard to believe it.

The bond market situation is crazy. While everyone focuses on AI, US borrowing rates just hit the highest level since June 2007. Credit card "serious delinquencies" are at the highest since 2010 and mortgage rates could near 8%. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

$IREN (2W) — Reminds me a lot of the Cavs being down 3-1 to the Warriors. That wick tells the whole story, just blowing past the $30 support most people had their stop losses on and sweeping up a ton of liquidity, only to reverse +30%. > this is the wildest market I’ve been a part of, and last week just was another reminder how fast things move both ways. Now if we weekly close within the grey support from $36-$40, then bulls have done remarkably well with this recovery, but right now we need some solid structural moves to follow to build on this spectacular day.