Joseph Mozube
3.2K posts
Joseph Mozube
@JMozube
Founder & CEO | CIO @gullbridge Innovation-obsessed. Improve lives through transformative financial and infrastructure solutions. | Not Financial Advice
Global Katılım Nisan 2021
1.2K Takip Edilen635 Takipçiler
@goldseek Watch bond yields, inflation breakevens, and energy equities, they’ll confirm whether this is a macro shift or just a liquidation event.
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What just happened?
Oil prices collapse by over 20%
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@unusual_whales Housing stress at that scale doesn’t stay isolated. It bleeds into credit, savings rates, and ultimately economic growth.
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49% of U.S. residents are struggling to pay rent or mortgages, per Redfin
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@KobeissiLetter Government debt and AI-driven corporate borrowing have very different risk profiles. Productive capex debt behaves differently than consumption-driven debt.
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BREAKING: Global debt surged +$29 trillion in 2025, to a record $348 trillion.
This marks the biggest annual increase since the 2020 pandemic.
The surge was particularly driven by governments, which added +$10 trillion, with the US, China, and the Euro Area responsible for roughly three-quarters of the increase.
This brings the global government debt to $107 trillion, an all-time high.
Furthermore, non-financial corporate debt rose to a record $101 trillion, with AI-related investment a major driver of corporate borrowing.
Meanwhile, the total debt of emerging markets rose to a record $117 trillion, with a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 235%, also an all-time high.
The global debt crisis is reaching unprecedented levels.
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The absolute number is massive, but markets care more about interest burden relative to GDP. Debt becomes destabilizing when growth slows and refinancing costs rise simultaneously.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: Global debt surged +$29 trillion in 2025, to a record $348 trillion. This marks the biggest annual increase since the 2020 pandemic. The surge was particularly driven by governments, which added +$10 trillion, with the US, China, and the Euro Area responsible for roughly three-quarters of the increase. This brings the global government debt to $107 trillion, an all-time high. Furthermore, non-financial corporate debt rose to a record $101 trillion, with AI-related investment a major driver of corporate borrowing. Meanwhile, the total debt of emerging markets rose to a record $117 trillion, with a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 235%, also an all-time high. The global debt crisis is reaching unprecedented levels.
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If this thesis plays out, watch T-bill yields, reverse repo balances, and dollar liquidity metrics, those would reflect stablecoin-driven Treasury demand before broader bond markets react.
unusual_whales@unusual_whales
Standard Chartered forecasts the stablecoin market could expand from $304 billion today to $2 trillion by 2028, increasing demand for U.S. Treasury bills.
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@unusual_whales If stablecoins approach $2T, that’s a structural bid for short-duration Treasuries. It wouldn’t move long-end yields much, but it could materially support T-bill demand and liquidity.
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Standard Chartered forecasts the stablecoin market could expand from $304 billion today to $2 trillion by 2028, increasing demand for U.S. Treasury bills.
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Joseph Mozube retweetledi
@unusual_whales If the economy is growing but jobs are not, it usually means companies are increasing output without hiring more people.
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@KobeissiLetter Credit spreads, volatility indices, and bond yields, those typically confirm whether de-risking becomes systemic.
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BREAKING: Hedge funds sold global equities last week at the fastest pace since the April 2025 tariff turmoil.
Net selling in the week ending February 19th recorded a -1.54 standard deviation from typical levels, driven by short sales.
All regions were net sold, led by North America and Europe, where long exposure was reduced at the fastest pace in 5 months.
Single stocks and macro products, such as index futures and ETFs, made up 58% and 42% of total notional selling, respectively.
By sector, hedge funds dumped 7 of 11 global industry groups, led by financials, which posted their largest weekly sale since April.
Energy, healthcare, and staples were the only sectors to attract net buying, indicating a broad rotation into defensive stocks.
Bearish sentiment among hedge funds is intensifying.
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@KobeissiLetter @levelsio Buying a company because it owns a slice of the thing threatening its core business is a very modern way of coping.
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@levelsio You know it’s a revolution when people are rushing to buy stocks of companies that own part of an AI company that will soon take over many parts of those stocks’ business.
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If you want to benefit from Claude taking down all the other companies
Here's public companies you can buy stock of that own Anthropic:
- Amazon
- Google
- Microsoft
- Nvidia
- Salesforce
- SAP
- Zoom
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: IBM stock, $IBM, falls over -10% after Anthropic announces that Claude can streamline COBOL code. It’s becoming increasingly clear how pivotal the times we are in right now truly are.
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@APompliano Acceleration cuts both ways, more disruption, yes, but also faster capital rotation and new opportunity pockets most people overlook.
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I truly believe we are entering one of the hardest periods of time to invest.
There is change and disruption happening across every industry and every financial market.
And the rate of change is accelerating.
There are few safe places to hide your capital, which increases the amount of decision an investor has to make.
More decisions means higher likelihood of making mistakes.
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
Best of luck to all of you.
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Periods of structural change usually feel hardest in real time. Volatility rises, correlations shift, and traditional playbooks stop working, but those environments historically create new leadership rather than eliminate opportunity.
Anthony Pompliano 🌪@APompliano
I truly believe we are entering one of the hardest periods of time to invest. There is change and disruption happening across every industry and every financial market. And the rate of change is accelerating. There are few safe places to hide your capital, which increases the amount of decision an investor has to make. More decisions means higher likelihood of making mistakes. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Best of luck to all of you.
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@KobeissiLetter Retaliation risk usually becomes the next headline investors start pricing.
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BREAKING: President Trump announces a new 10% global tariff on ALL countries under Section 122, "over and above" existing tariffs.
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@zerohedge Will this turn into reform talk or just headline oxygen?
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@KobeissiLetter Companies that absorbed tariff costs could see relief, but supply chains already adjusted, so benefits might be uneven.
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BREAKING: The Supreme Court of the United States has officially ruled that President Trump's tariffs are illegal, in a 6-3 ruling.
The US now faces $150+ billion in potential tariff refunds.
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Alternative trade frameworks could shift revenue timing without reducing fiscal pressure, which matters more for long-duration bonds than equities.
zerohedge@zerohedge
Goldman: "This won’t be the end of tariffs… the administration will almost certainly roll out alternative legal frameworks. Net result is probably slightly fewer tariffs, materially more trade uncertainty, and some incremental deficit concerns. Net-net, that’s mildly supportive for equities and mildly negative for bonds… but largely priced for both."
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@zerohedge Slightly fewer tariffs with more uncertainty usually keeps equities supported short term while pushing term premium higher in bonds.
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Goldman: "This won’t be the end of tariffs… the administration will almost certainly roll out alternative legal frameworks. Net result is probably slightly fewer tariffs, materially more trade uncertainty, and some incremental deficit concerns. Net-net, that’s mildly supportive for equities and mildly negative for bonds… but largely priced for both."
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