JP+

@BudElliott3 Keep finding myself agreeing with Bud, I got LSU 13/16 SEC SOS, easy draw

Texas, A&M, and Bama come to the boot No Georgia, no Oklahoma You get Arkansas, Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Auburn. Those four had better be layups with LSU being all-in on this season. Hard to think of an easier draw for the Tigers in SEC play.

@beta_rank_fb Not exactly what you’re going for but I’m going to go with Bama. I have them 8th in the SEC with 7.3 exp wins. The formula is obvious imo: reach 9–3 and let the helmet turn “eighth-best SEC team” into “dangerous at-large”

Who is this year's middling SEC team that makes the playoff? We've had a team with no shot to win a game the last two seasons, and nearly had an awful Texas team make it. Who will have the record and recruiting ranking to make people ignore the actual play on the field?

@Steponaduck @Stucastsports Let’s get it

@JPPlusCFB @Stucastsports Oh yeah my man. I’m on it

The College Football Week 0/1 market is seeing some steam today: Jacksonville State down to 7 in some spots WVU is up to -20.5 Pitt touched -17 earlier today at some shops FIU touches +13 WKU down to -2.5 in some places Some fun week 1 college football moves.

@Steponaduck @Stucastsports 🤝

@Stucastsports I mean....wrote it up. took the 8.5 even teams...fun spot for Jax to run the ball and slow the pace.

@Steponaduck Agree on the SOS angle. I've got ECU right around 7.2 wins, so 6-6 to 11-1 is all live. But it's not just Bama, I make ECU close to a TD dog at Army, with ODU and Memphis basically flips. That road stretch is where the under sits imo

The AAC is a league where strength of schedule matters a significant amount. Unlike CUSA, P12 and MWC where most of the teams all play eachother with exception for missing one team, this is a larger league, and the amount of hit/miss potential on the stronger teams is significant. I would really take strength of schedule into account more here than in any other G5 league when regarding win totals or conference futures projections. ECU is a prime candidate for a team that I wanted to look to bet the under on this season, and they still may drop and end up 7-5. I just could not get there with that schedule. The only time all season ECU will be a dog (projected of course, could change) of greater than 3-points will be the opener at Alabama. 8 times favored, two games lined -1.5/+1.5 (flips) and once +2.5. they could end up 6-6 or 11-1.

@Steponaduck Pretty similar 🤝

South Florida has my hardest AAC schedule in 2026. They avoid Charlotte, Rice and North Texas while pulling five of the top 6 contenders in AAC League Play. ECU plays my easiest schedule in the American this year, pulling 6 of the bottom eight while avoiding Navy, UTSA, Tulane

@BudElliott3 And if that happens it’s still only a ~55% chance of getting in

@BudElliott3 Most viable scenario I have in my model is they beat Florida and Oklahoma on the road, avoid all upset losses, LSU and Georgia finish 10-2 or better and play for the SEC title, Texas finishes 9-3 or 10-2 and no more than one of A&M / Bama / Tenn finishes better than 9-3

Okay, you're right. I don't know for sure, but 9-3 Ole Miss could conceivably make the playoff. But the math gets really weird there because you need enough wins over top teams, and you need your losses to be quite forgivable. That's possible, but I'm gonna walk you through this. I’m eyeballing it in my head. I haven’t modeled all this out. So if you had very close losses to undefeated Texas, to 12-0 Georgia, and to a 10-2 Oklahoma, but you beat a 10-2 LSU, 10-2 Louisville maybe an 8-4 Florida, a 7-5 Missouri, a 6-6 Auburn, and a 6-6 Vanderbilt, then I could maybe see it? The problem is you basically need the bottom quartile or the bottom third of the SEC, going like 0-9 or 1-8 in conference, to prop up everybody else's record to this extent. So you need the bottom SEC teams to combine for like 45 losses in conference minimum to prop up the records of the teams that you lost to and the teams that you beat , and you would need those teams to still do well in the nonconference, and you would need those teams to be very specific teams. And that gets dangerous pretty fast because you would likely result in other SEC teams going 10-2, and they'd probably be ranked ahead of you if you're 9-3. It’s certainly possible. I’m sure there are other scenarios here. I don’t think Ole Miss is likely to make the playoff with a nine and three record because of the unlikely odds of everything else that would have to occur around it.

@BudElliott3 Agree with Bud here (again), JP+ has Ole Miss at #5 overall (from #12 to end 2025), and the defense is doing the work: 41st → 18th. But better ≠ lock, I've got them just 14th in playoff odds (28.7%). Tougher slate + one-score regression cap the ceiling.

I like Ole Miss a lot this year. I think their defense improvement, in theory, could even outpace what I would project as some offensive backsliding. However, literally HALF of the Power Four teams who Ole Miss played last year on their way to the playoff fired their coach. Another two were South Carolina and Mississippi State, who were awful. That schedule was a cakewalk. And yet they still went 5-1 in single-score games against that breeze of a schedule. There was a lot of luck in that record. I think this year's schedule is maybe a full win tougher. I think Ole Miss has to be a meaningfully better quality team this year than it was last year if it's going to make the playoff, if you account for the likely regression in luck and account for the schedule difficulty change.

@BudElliott3 @BudElliott3 🤝@JPPlusCFB Agree with Bud here that Ole Miss is not "super likely" to make the playoff. I have 13 teams above them. I personally think BYU should have a higher % than say Iowa or Florida but my model sees the B10 & SEC depth vacuuming up most of the spots

I have 14 teams more likely to make the playoff than Ole Miss. 9 of those I would say are considerably more likely. So I think it’s fair to say that Ole Miss is not super likely to make the playoff.

@BudElliott3 @statsowar In your inbox 👍🏻

@JPPlusCFB @statsowar I’d love to see it

My timeline has become consumed with fantasy football drama and EA CFB 27 complaints, needs a refresh. Who's your favorite team's best beat writer I should be following?

@statsowar @BudElliott3 I’ve been compiling a summer school recap summary document in case you can’t listen to them all. Can DM you link

@BudElliott3 do you have a twitter list for summer school participants

@Collin1 Also got them around the same proj. wins - market disagrees but seems we're aligned 🤝

The GO GO offense is coming to the Big 12 thanks to OC Brennan Marion. QB Julian Lewis will run the multiple personnel, heavy motion and vertical attack for Colorado in 2026

@Steponaduck @20MC20 🤝 I have their implied CUSA odds closer to +300

@JPPlusCFB @20MC20 another team I am higher on. Think the ceiling is very high. Could step up and threaten to win the league this year.

HERE are updated CUSA win-totals with pricing if you were to bet the "over". I have already placed a bet on one of these teams RSW this season, and I am eyeing in on another. Any guesses on what team I like, or would like to FADE this season in CUSA?

@Steponaduck @20MC20 Over ^

@Steponaduck @20MC20

@Steponaduck Interesting list, here is how my model ranks CUSA SOS. I have Delaware #1 as they draw the top 4 in my CUSA rankings (WKU, JV St, Kennesaw St and Liberty) and misses SHSU

HERE are my hardest CUSA conference schedules for 2026. MTSU has to open league play at Jax State before stepping back out of conference for a trip to KU. Catching the hardest conference opponents early creates a situation where MTSU is not likely to gain much in-season momentum, and they play the two worst teams on their conf. schedule at the end, where THEY might be checked out. Also trips to Liberty and SHSU B2B after "100 miles of hate" is not exactly easy. I personally thought MO STATE had the hardest league schedule, as they have three consecutive weekday games creating short weeks, and the road schedule is viscous. They were 2nd hardest.

@statsowar Same thing on this side of the coin, lot of overlap with you 🫡

Here are the least favorable conference schedules:

@statsowar Good exercise, here is how my model shakes out using your methodology. Also have the Hawaii/AF tie in the MWC

Most Favorable Conference Schedule (based on my market preseason priors): Method: "What win percentage would the median team in your conference be expected to have against your conference schedule?"

@PDawg206 @jhnhrris Ah perhaps - what’s the best way to get in touch? Do you have an email we can correspond through?

@JPerm47 @jhnhrris Hello, I don't think I got it, does it have something to do with the new DM system on X?

@PDawg206 Hey man, sent you a DM re: your public tracker. I want to get my model included for upcoming season. Think @jhnhrris also reached out as he is familiar with what I've built